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Before the draft, we looked at the last seven Cowboys drafts to get some idea what to expect. Now the draft is over, how did the Cowboys do?
Any evaluations of the Dallas Cowboys 2017 draft just a few days after the draft are, of course, pure projections. We have no idea whether each drafted player will stay healthy, will stay free of the often arbitrary NFL suspension system, will beat out his Cowboys’ teammates to make the team, etc. But it’s an exercise that’s done every year.
This evaluation is going to be quite different than most, because we are going to give context. Before the draft we looked at the last seven Cowboys drafts - back to 2010 (we stopped there because 2009 was so awful). It’s pretty clear the 2016 draft is #1 on this list, and may never be topped by the Cowboys. Where do you think this draft will stack up?
One further note before we proceed. Don’t rate the draft on whether the Cowboys exceeded expectations based on their draft position. At the end of the day, that’s completely irrelevant. All that matters is how good are the players you got. It’s no consolation if your fourth-rounder is better than most fourth-rounders. It only matters if that player is good enough to help your team win games. With that caveat, how did the Cowboys’ do?
Cowboys 2017 Draft
Here’s who the Cowboys drafted.
Year
Rnd
Pick
Pos
To
AP1
PB
St
CarAV
G
2017
2017
1
Taco Charlton
28
DE
2017
2017
2
Chidobe Awuzie
60
CB/S
2017
2017
3
Jourdan Lewis
92
CB
2017
2017
4
Ryan Switzer
133
WR
2017
2017
6
Xavier Woods
191
S
2017
2017
6
Marquez White
216
CB
2017
2017
7
Joey Ivie
228
DT
2017
2017
7
Noah Brown
239
WR
2017
2017
7
Jordan Carrell
248
DT
(Year, round, player, pick number, position, played through this year, All-Pro seasons, Pro Bowl seasons, years starting, career approximate value, games played.)
One thing you notice, as you look at the drafts below, is what makes a draft strong. Do you get quality players who start, make Pro Bowl or All-Pro rosters, or give you high approximate value, and stay healthy and out of trouble? And how many of them do you get? We don’t know the answer to this yet, but let’s take a guess.
- Number of picks? Nine
- Starters? Zero to two, first year — Charlton, Awuzie or Woods. Potential for two to five eventually - Charlton, Awuzie, Lewis, Switzer, Woods
- Multi-year starters? Same two to five.
- Pro-Bowl or All-Pro players or high-AV players? No PB or AP. Two high AV - Charlton, Switzer. Potential for Awuzie.
- Stayed healthy? Everyone.
- Second contracts? Three. Charlton, Awuzie, Switzer.
This is a stab in the dark and is super optimistic, but if this were the result, it would be a fantastic draft. As you will see below, only one other draft has yielded up to five starters.
If Taco Charlton reaches his potential, he could become a mainstay at defensive end into a second contract. Chidobe Awuzie may get moved around, but has the potential to stick as a playmaker at cornerback or safety. Jourdan Lewis may be the best cover guy in the group, but has size and speed limitations. Ryan Switzer looks to have more upside than Cole Beasley, because he’s had longer catch-and-run plays and may supplant him eventually, but likely won’t get starter snaps for a couple years at least. Xavier Woods has the “easiest” path to starting with only Jeff Heath, Kavon Frazier, and perhaps Awuzie to compete with. The last four guys will be lucky to make the team, though it’s possible one or more of them will surprise.
Cowboys 2016 Draft
Year
Rnd
Pick
Pos
To
AP1
PB
St
CarAV
G
2016
2016
1
Ezekiel Elliott
4
RB
2016
1
1
1
16
15
2016
2016
2
Jaylon Smith
34
OLB
0
0
0
2016
2016
3
Maliek Collins
67
DT
2016
0
0
1
7
16
2016
2016
4
Charles Tapper
101
DE
0
0
0
2016
2016
4
Dak Prescott
135
QB
2016
0
1
1
16
16
2016
2016
6
Anthony Brown
189
CB
2016
0
0
1
4
16
2016
2016
6
Kavon Frazier
212
SS
2016
0
0
0
1
9
2016
2016
6
Darius Jackson
216
RB
0
0
0
2016
2016
6
Rico Gathers
217
TE
0
0
0
- Number of picks? Nine.
- Starters? Five (by this year) - Elliott, Smith, Collins, Prescott, Brown
- Multi-year starters? Same five.
- Pro-Bowl or All-Pro players or high-AV players? Three already - Elliott, Collins, Prescott, and Smith is almost certain to join them. Brown might also join this club. Frazier and Gathers are long shots.
- Stayed healthy? Smith and Tapper are coming off injuries, having missed their rookie seasons already.
- Second contracts? Hopefully the five above.
Can’t really do better than this group, as this was the best draft class in Cowboys history for producing approximate value as rookies, and that’s with getting nothing from four of the nine picks.
Cowboys 2015 Draft
Year
Rnd
Pick
Pos
To
AP1
PB
St
CarAV
G
2015
2015
1
Byron Jones
27
CB
2016
0
0
1
10
32
2015
2015
2
Randy Gregory
60
OLB
2016
0
0
0
2
14
2015
2015
3
Chaz Green
91
T
2016
0
0
0
1
4
2015
2015
4
Damien Wilson
127
ILB
2016
0
0
0
4
32
2015
2015
5
Ryan Russell
163
DE
2016
0
0
0
1
9
2015
2015
7
Mark Nzeocha
236
OLB
2016
0
0
0
0
7
2015
2015
7
Laurence Gibson
243
T
0
0
0
2015
2015
7
Geoff Swaim
246
TE
2016
0
0
0
1
13
- Number of picks? Eight.
- Starters? One.
- Multi-year starters? One.
- Pro-Bowl or All-Pro players or high-AV players? None so far.
- Stayed healthy? Randy Gregory has suffered multiple suspensions, Chaz Green missed year one to injury, then got hurt again his second year, and Geoff Swaim missed the end of last year.
- Second contracts? One. Byron Jones is the only one in the running. If Randy Gregory was ever allowed to play — marijuana should not disqualify anyone — he could be two. Damien Wilson is a long shot to stay on a cheap second deal.
This is a horrific draft class. Cowboys need more out of Byron Jones, need Chaz Green to stay healthy and seize the right tackle spot, and need Randy Gregory and his speed on the defensive line.
Cowboys 2014 Draft
Year
Rnd
Pick
Pos
To
AP1
PB
St
CarAV
G
2014
2014
1
Zack Martin
16
G
2016
2
3
3
34
48
2014
2014
2
Demarcus Lawrence
34
DE
2016
0
0
1
10
32
2014
2014
4
Anthony Hitchens
119
LB
2016
0
0
2
17
48
2014
2014
5
Devin Street
146
WR
2016
0
0
0
1
34
2014
2014
7
Ben Gardner
231
DE
0
0
0
2014
2014
7
Will Smith
238
LB
0
0
0
2014
2014
7
Ahmad Dixon
248
DB
2014
0
0
0
0
11
2014
2014
7
Ken Bishop
251
DT
2015
0
0
0
0
5
2014
2014
7
Terrance Mitchell
254
DB
2016
0
0
0
1
15
- Number of picks? Nine.
- Starters? Three - Martin, Lawrence, Hitchens.
- Multi-year starters? Same three.
- Pro-Bowl or All-Pro players or high-AV players? Martin is the best guard in the NFL, and Hitchens has notched a seven AV.
- Stayed healthy? Lawrence has been suspended and had multiple back surgeries.
- Second contracts? Martin. Hitchens will have to come cheap to re-up, and Lawrence will have to have a show-stopping 2017 season.
Zack Martin was a cornerstone pick, and Hitchens has held down the fort at linebacker, but Lawrence has been a disappointment, and the rest were wasted picks.
Cowboys 2013 Draft
Year
Rnd
Pick
Pos
To
AP1
PB
St
CarAV
G
2013
2013
1
Travis Frederick
31
C
2016
1
3
4
38
64
2013
2013
2
Gavin Escobar
47
TE
2016
0
0
0
2
62
2013
2013
3
Terrance Williams
74
WR
2016
0
0
3
23
64
2013
2013
3
J.J. Wilcox
80
DB
2016
0
0
2
15
58
2013
2013
4
B.W. Webb
114
DB
2016
0
0
0
6
49
2013
2013
5
Joseph Randle
151
RB
2015
0
0
0
7
35
2013
2013
6
DeVonte Holloman
185
LB
2013
0
0
0
1
9
- Number of picks? Seven.
- Starters? Three - Frederick, Williams, Wilcox.
- Multi-year starters? Same three.
- Pro-Bowl or All-Pro players or high-AV players? Frederick, Williams.
- Stayed healthy? Escobar missed the end of 2015, and Holloman’s career was cut short by an injury.
- Second contracts? Frederick, Williams.
The Cowboys traded down in the first round and used it to pick up Frederick and Williams. A very wise decision.
Cowboys 2012 Draft
Year
Rnd
Pick
Pos
To
AP1
PB
St
CarAV
G
2012
2012
1
Morris Claiborne
6
DB
2016
0
0
2
15
47
2012
2012
3
Tyrone Crawford
81
DE
2016
0
0
3
20
61
2012
2012
4
Kyle Wilber
113
LB
2016
0
0
0
11
73
2012
2012
4
Matt Johnson
135
DB
2012
0
0
0
0
2012
2012
5
Danny Coale
152
WR
2012
0
0
0
0
2012
2012
6
James Hanna
186
TE
2015
0
0
2
3
62
2012
2012
7
Caleb McSurdy
222
LB
2012
0
0
0
0
- Number of picks? Seven.
- Starters? Three - Claiborne, Tyrone Crawford, Hanna.
- Multi-year starters? Same three.
- Pro-Bowl or All-Pro players or high-AV players? Crawford has scored 7 AV
- Stayed healthy? Claiborne couldn’t stay on the field, Matt Johnson was injured and never played, James Hanna suffered a serious leg injury, and Tyrone Crawford has had multiple surgeries.
- Second contracts? Tyrone Crawford.
Competing with 2015 for worst draft class in this decade.
Cowboys 2011 Draft
Year
Rnd
Pick
Pos
To
AP1
PB
St
CarAV
G
2011
2011
1
Tyron Smith
9
T
2016
2
4
6
60
92
2011
2011
2
Bruce Carter
40
LB
2016
0
0
3
18
75
2011
2011
3
DeMarco Murray
71
RB
2016
1
3
5
57
84
2011
2011
4
David Arkin
110
G
2016
0
0
0
0
4
2011
2011
5
Josh Thomas
143
DB
2015
0
0
0
7
52
2011
2011
6
Dwayne Harris
176
WR
2016
0
1
0
11
83
2011
2011
7
Shaun Chapas
220
RB
2012
0
0
0
0
6
2011
2011
7
Bill Nagy
252
G
2012
0
0
0
2
4
- Number of picks? Eight.
- Starters? Three - Tyron Smith, Bruce Carter, Demarco Murray
- Multi-year starters? Same three.
- Pro-Bowl or All-Pro players or high-AV players? Smith, Murray.
- Stayed healthy? Smith had been durable, but missed three games in 2016 with back issues, Murray had injury issues.
- Second contracts? Smith.
Cowboys have locked up their left tackle for years, and he’s among the best left tackles in the game. Murray showed what could be done behind this offensive line, but was deemed too expensive to keep.
Cowboys 2010 Draft
Year
Rnd
Pick
Pos
To
AP1
PB
St
CarAV
G
2010
2010
1
Dez Bryant
24
WR
2016
1
3
6
56
97
2010
2010
2
Sean Lee
55
LB
2016
1
2
4
41
75
2010
2010
4
Akwasi Owusu-Ansah
126
DB
2013
0
0
0
1
15
2010
2010
6
Sam Young
179
T
2016
0
0
0
9
65
2010
2010
6
Jamar Wall
196
DB
2010
0
0
0
0
2
2010
2010
7
Sean Lissemore
234
DT
2015
0
0
0
14
69
- Number of picks? Six.
- Starters? Two. Dez Bryant and Sean Lee.
- Multi-year starters? Same two.
- Pro-Bowl or All-Pro players or high-AV players? Bryant and Lee.
- Stayed healthy? Dez and Lee have both missed lots of games due to injury.
- Second contracts? Bryant and Lee.
Not much volume to this draft, but in Dez and Sean Lee, the Cowboys got two huge contributors.
If I had to rank the drafts, it would be like this:
- First - 2016, by a mile. Dak, Zeke, Smith, plus Collins and Brown.
- Second - 2010. Dez and Lee are high-impact players.
- Third - 2011. Smith has the highest career AV, and Murray was great while he was here.
- Fourth and Fifth tie - 2013. Frederick and Williams are on second contracts, with Frederick an All-Pro; 2014. Martin the best guard in the game, Hitchens has done very well for a fourth rounder, and Lawrence still could pull it together.
- Sixth, 2012. Pretty dismal, with no impact players. Wilber and Hanna are already on a second deal, however, Claiborne showed flashes when he was healthy, and Crawford is on his second contract.
- Sixth, 2015. Really bad. Only one starter so far, in Byron Jones, though Chaz Green could get healthy and play, while Wilson and Swaim are at least role players.
Looking again at this year’s haul, its possible the Cowboys will have turned in one of their best performances of the last eight years. This year can’t compare to 2016, and no player is likely comparable to Dez Bryant or Sean Lee of 2010, or any of the All-Pro offensive linemen of 2011, 2013, and 2014. But this draft looks deeper, with the potential for multiple starters and other contributors. And if it can stay healthy, that will be another plus. It’s an optimistic conclusion, but why not?
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