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How much of an edge do first seeds in a conference have in reaching the Super Bowl? In the last 20 years, they’ve gotten to the title game half of the time.
The Dallas Cowboys are the top seed in the NFC after six games, with a five-game winning streak and a 5-1 record overall. With a game against the only other one-loss team in the NFC (Minnesota), Dallas can control its final seeding. The last time Dallas finished with the top seed in the NFC was 2007, in Tony Romo’s first year as a full-time starter. That’s the only top seed the Cowboys have had since they won the Super Bowl at the end of the 1995 season.
Over the last three seasons, the top seeds in the NFC and AFC have faced off in the Super Bowl. And in the twenty seasons since the Dallas Cowboys last won the Super Bowl, the top seed has played in the Super Bowl 20 times, or 50% of the time.
***Large snip of unformatted table***
Also, in every year except 1997, 2008, 2010, and 2012, at least one of the Super Bowl teams was a first seed.
Second seeds have made the Super Bowl in nine seasons, third seeds twice, fourth seeds six times, fifth seeds once, and sixth seeds twice.
The table is sortable, so you can try this for yourselves. What you can see from the totals is that teams in the Super Bowl have averaged just over a second seed over the last twenty years (85/40).
How often have they had the top scoring offense? Nine seasons. Overall, they’ve averaged seventh in offense (281/40).
How often have they had the top defense in fewest points allowed? Eight seasons. Overall, Super Bowl teams have averaged seventh-and-a-half position on defense (303/40).
There is no claim of a causal relationship here. But there’s also no harm in staying on top and making opponents come through Dallas in the playoffs.
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