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With back-to-back games where he’s struggled, though only one of them a loss, Dak Prescott’s play has re-opened the Prescott/Romo debate among fans, but it hasn’t yet re-opened the debate where it matters, for Jason Garrett.
In the weekly Dak and Zeke report, written just after Dallas lost only its second game of the year, 10-7 to the New York Giants, where Dak Prescott had by far his worst game of the season, I said that further stumbling by Dak might open the door to a return of Tony Romo before the season’s end.
It’s not going to be so easy to turn off what is almost certainly going to be a heavy topic unless Dallas can right the ship next Sunday night against a hot Buccaneers team — should Dallas insert Tony Romo to see if he can jump start an offense that has lost it’s trademark efficiency these last two weeks?
The answer to that question is still clearly no for this week. But if the Cowboys lose again, and do so with anything comparable to what we’ve seen the last two weeks, the #1 seed could be on the line for the Monday night game against Detroit in two weeks. At that point, there will be no avoiding a full-scale revival of the Dak/Tony debate.
This point echoes earlier articles on this subject, where the door might be open for a quarterback change late in the season if three things took place:
- One, Dallas needed to get a good enough read on Dak’s abilities over enough games that they could trust him going forward and be able to move on from Tony Romo in the offseason.
- Two, enough games needed to pass so any insertion of Romo would be with only a couple games left, where the risk of another Romo injury would be minimized.
- Three, the team and Dak Prescott would have to hit a serious bump in the road, enough to cause doubts about whether the team would be better off in the short run with a more experienced quarterback behind center.
The first two of those conditions have certainly been met, and the third item for some has already arrived.
However, after reading the comments of Jason Garrett, it seems clear that Jason Garrett doesn’t feel Dak has played so poorly as to put his job in jeopardy, at least not yet.
"You can make it as simple or as complex as you want to make it," Garrett said. "It's pretty simple for us: Dak's going to play quarterback as we go forward."
Jerry Jones suggested Monday that further Dak struggles — which he defined cryptically as “you’ll know it when you see it” — could lead to a change, but his words didn’t come from Jason Garrett.
Jason Garrett has not expounded on the reasons for standing by Dak at this point, but it’s not hard to come up with strong reasons for doing so.
The Case for Staying With Dak Prescott
Dak’s Stats Are Stellar
The merits of what Dak Prescott has done so far this season are nothing short of amazing. The Cowboys are thirteen games into a record-setting season, with the franchise record of eight wins in a row blown away in an eleven game winning streak. They are 11-2, top seed in the NFC by a game-and-a-half (over the Giants, who hold the tiebreaker) with three games to play. They have lost to only one team, by a combined four points, and have soundly beaten nearly all of their other opponents. Everyone on the team has bought into Dak as a leader, and the team has grown accustomed to his playing style. Dak and Zeke together have changed the locker room, with countless players commenting on how closely knit the team is. A couple bad games cannot change that. In fact, it should only strengthen the team’s bond, as veterans fight to protect the kid’s back.
In addition to the team records, Dak is near the top in critical NFL quarterback ratings. He’s second to Tom Brady in ESPN’s QBR, getting passed only this week. He’s still third in passer rating, even after dropping six points off the Giants game. He’s third in ANY/A (adjusted net yard per attempt), again after taking a big hit in the Giants game. These totals are all higher than all but one of Tony Romo’s seasons - 2014, and in some cases (e.g. QBR) by a lot. He is near the top of the NFL in fewest interceptions and seventh in fewest sacks. He’s eighth in quarterback rushing yards, with 218, putting him only 13 yards behind Alfred Morris on the season.
Moreover, Dak is durable. Only once this season - the Baltimore game where he was tackled on the sidelines - has there been even the hint of a concern of injury after a sack or a hit.
The Cowboys’ Recent Struggles On Offense Are Not All Dak’s Fault
Though Dak and the offense have struggled these last two games, and the Giants game was a poor performance for Dak by any measure, Sunday’s loss was hardly all on Dak Prescott. The same was true of the Minnesota game. Penalties killed drive after drive in Minnesota. While they weren’t as obvious of a factor on Sunday, two penalties in particular stood out. One was a holding call on Terrance Williams that negated a Cole Beasley run that would have put Dallas in field goal range. Another was a special teams penalty on Byron Jones that negated a Cole Beasley return into Giants’ territory.
Other plays that made a difference? What about Barry Church’s drop of an interception thrown directly to him by Eli Manning? Or his inability to corral another turnover earlier in the game (that cast sure didn’t help)? What about Dez Bryant’s fumble on his only catch of the night, when the Cowboys were trying to drive for the tying or winning score? What about Garrett’s decision to punt with just over two minutes to go with Dallas facing a fourth and one deep in it’s own territory. Zeke hadn’t been doing much in the second half, but he’s had a very good record on fourth and short.
Pulling Dak Would Send The Wrong Message To The Team
If Jason Garrett pulled the quarterback in this situation, it would send a totally wrong message to the team. It would allow all of those who also put in poor performances in recent games to escape accountability, and shift the “blame” for the Giants’ loss onto Dak Prescott. Garrett is right to believe that the Cowboys will rise or fall as a team, not based on the play of a single player.
Some might argue that it’s important to support Dak Prescott because he’s obviously the future for the Cowboys as quarterback, and you don’t want to mess with his confidence by supplanting him at this stage. I’m not so sure that’s critical. One of Dak’s best features is that he is mentally strong. If he was forced to sit on the sidelines, it wouldn’t change his approach or preparation at all.
What is critical is giving Dak Prescott the opportunity to work through his mistakes and come out the other side a better quarterback, which could pay dividends for years. Sure, the Vikings and Giants were successful using similar strategies of coverage and pressure. But there are risks to all-out blitzes. It’s time for the Cowboys coaches to devise ways for Dak to counter these attacks, so Dallas can beat them next time.
Would Tony Romo Be Better?
Would Tony Romo be better than Dak Prescott right now, having not played in live action for well over a year? As well as Tony Romo has played in his career, there’s no certainty he can just dial it up to the peak level he achieved in 2014. Tony also does not have a stellar track record in the playoffs (whether his fault or not). How well would he have played against a team bringing relentless pressure to hit and sack him multiple times like the Vikings and Giants just did? He’s certainly had some less than great games in those situations, as have all quarterbacks.
Indeed, in Tony’s last start, he had an even more miserable game against the Carolina Panthers than Dak did this week against the Giants. Before he was injured in that game, Tony was 11 for 21 for 106 yards, three interceptions, no touchdowns, a sack, a passer rating of 27.2, and a negative ANY/A. The Cowboys lost 33-14.
Of course it’s not fair to cherry pick one terrible game by Tony Romo to diminish his accomplishments. But then why should the Cowboys take one bad game by Dak Prescott, on the road, in wintry conditions, to discount what he’s done this season?
Making A Change Could Also Show Weakness To Opponents
All these factors are important, but perhaps the main reason Jason Garrett is unlikely to make a change is because he could see it as a sign of team weakness, as an exhibit that the Cowboys are panicking and lack the confidence that allowed the team to steamroll opponents earlier in the year. He might decide it is better to focus his attention on taking the team he has and making it better each week, than thinking a Lone Ranger will ride in to save the day.
All of these reasons point to Dak Prescott remaining in charge.
So What Are The Circumstances That Would Lead The Cowboys To Make A Change?
The argument for Tony Romo is based on a series of assumptions that cannot be validated without Romo taking the field. No one will really know how Tony Romo would perform unless he is thrown into live action again. His quarterbacking skills are likely fine, and his mind is certainly still sharp, but how will he react to blitzes, and how will he recover when he’s hit and sacked?
It’s one thing to make a change when the situation is truly dire because the starter cannot move the team or keeps turning the ball over, or you have no choice because the starter is injured. There is almost no risk to making a change in those circumstances. It’s a riskier proposition to make that change when it might be equally likely that Dak and the offense will re-discover the magic that propelled the Cowboys on a record-breaking 11 game winning streak.
There is certainly some downside risk to staying with Dak Prescott, with the Cowboys needing two wins in their last three games — the next two against playoff contenders — to assure themselves of the #1 seed and home cooking throughout the NFC playoffs, where making the Super Bowl becomes far more likely. Moreover, no rookie has ever won a Super Bowl, though at least two first-season starters have — Tom Brady and Kurt Warner.
Getting to and winning the Super Bowl this season needs to remain the paramount goal, but it’s not cut and dried as to which quarterback is most likely to lead the Cowboys there.
Accordingly, unless Dak and the Cowboys offense continues to seriously struggle or Dak gets injured, through the Bucs’ game and possibly the Lions’ game, to the point where everyone begins to clamor for a change — in Jerry’s words, we’ll know it when we see it — don’t expect the Cowboys to make one.
For better or worse, we’re likely to see what Dak Prescott can do at the helm of this Cowboys’ team for the rest of the season, including the playoffs. Time to start another winning streak!
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