News: BTB: Would you do this deal for Earl Thomas if you ran the Cowboys?

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How far should the Cowboys go to obtain the services of Earl Thomas?

What, another Earl Thomas article connecting him with the Cowboys? Yes, that’s what’s happening. Now that Thomas is a free agent, there will be plenty of speculation about whether he will wear the Star until he either signs with Dallas or with another team.

When he was still with Seattle last year, we know that the Cowboys and the Seahawks had discussions about trading him, that went all the way back to the offseason before the draft. It never came to fruition but it did show Dallas had interest. Now that he’s a free agent, the question is just how much would it take to sign him? ESPN steps in and gives us a marker.


Dallas signs Thomas to a four-year, $40 million deal

It seems almost inevitable that the Cowboys will go after Earl Thomas, given his history in Texas and the presence of former Seahawks defensive coordinator Kris Richard on their coaching staff. With Tony Romo’s contract finally off the books, the Cowboys have the cap space to consummate their long-held interest in the future Hall of Famer.

What’s interesting about those numbers (four-year, $40 mil) is that it’s basically what he signed with Seattle for four years ago.


Earl Thomas signed a 4 year, $40,000,000 contract with the Seattle Seahawks, including a $9,500,000 signing bonus, $25,725,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $10,000,000.

Would Thomas settle for another deal like the one he signed four years ago? There are a few considerations here. Thomas’ season ended when he broke his leg in Week 4, so he still has to recover from that, although all indications are that he will and it won’t affect his play. Prior to that injury, Thomas was making noise about wanting to be the highest-paid safety in the game.

The other issue facing Thomas is the dreaded 30-line; Thomas will turn 30 before the 2019 season begins. The trend in the NFL is to get young and stay young, but Thomas is no ordinary talent. When healthy, he is certainly one of the top talents in the game, or at least he was. Can he keep that up as he ages and deals with more injuries?

For reference, here are the top five safeties based on the yearly average of their contract heading into 2019. (data from Spotrac)

Eric Berry $13 mil
Kam Chancellor $12 mil
Reshad Jones $12 mil
Harrison Smith $10.25 mil
Devin McCourty $9.5 mil

The latest deal signed by a safety is Eric Reid who just did a three-year, $22 mil contract with the Panthers

Would you do a four-year deal worth $40 million for Earl Thomas? We’ll throw in that $25 million will be guaranteed.

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T-RO

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Nobody will actually *pay* Thomas 4/40. He's already waning and within two years he will be league average. Could be considerable injury risk too.

Now perhaps someone will give him such a contract with the idea of letting him go after 2-3 years, so the payout won't be crazy.

The guaranteed money will be key.
 
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