Can free-agent spending buy a title?

[xwalker]

With NFL free agency beginning March 10, ESPN Stats & Information will examine some of the biggest stories surrounding the 2015 free-agent class.

What impact does “winning the offseason” have on win-loss records in the NFL?

Six of the 12 teams that have ranked in the top three in free-agent spending since 2011 did not improve their win total, including all three of last year’s top spending teams. The below information comes from spotrac.com.

2014 Offseason
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($147 million), Denver Broncos ($128M) and New York Giants ($111M) spent the most in terms of cash value during the offseason, but the trio averaged a two-win drop-off compared to 2013 (including playoffs). The Patriots, who won Super Bowl XLIX, ranked 16th in free-agent spending last offseason.

2013 Offseason
The Miami Dolphins ($160M), Indianapolis Colts ($129M) and Tennessee Titans ($133M) each added one win compared to their 2012 totals. The Colts were the only team to make it to the postseason. The Seattle Seahawks, winners of Super Bowl XLVIII, ranked 24th in total cash value spent that offseason.

link/http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/102703/can-free-agent-spending-buy-a-title

No, but the Patriots paid Revis 12M for 2014 and added Brandon Browner for 3 years, 15.5M.

The Cowboys wouldn't have won the 1995 SB without Deion.

It was a trade, not FA, but Charles Haley was the missing piece to the 1992, 1993 Super Bowls. Could a FA DE be that missing piece for Cowboys (Hardy anyone?).

 

[big dog cowboy]

Can free-agent spending buy a title?

Of course it can!!!

 

[KJJ]

Of course it can!!!

Can't think of a team that's wasted more cash on free agents and got as little in return for it than Washington.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Can't think of a team that's wasted more cash on free agents and got as little in return for it than Washington.

Nope.

When it comes to a lousy return when it comes to free agents, the Commanders take the top prize.

Now if you bundle in louse contracts for existing players on their team, unfortunately the Cowboys would rank right up there.

 

[KingintheNorth]

It's not an either or strategy.

It's not either you avoid free agency completely and build through the draft OR you overspend and ruin your cap for years.

You can be smart and target free agents that you feel improve your talent level, are worth a reasonable but competitive contract, and fit into the type of players you want on the team. All while still building through the draft.

For example, let's say the Cowboys pro scouts and front office really likes Jason Pierre-Paul and the Giants don't franchise him (which it looks they will now).
Is there a need? Yes.
Is he a significant upgrade over what the team has? Yes.
Is he young enough to warrant a long term contract? Yes.
Are we going to allow ourselves to get in a bidding war with other teams? No.
Are there other free agents we feel are graded close to JPP but we can get cheaper? Maybe a Jerry Hughes or even cheaper, a Pernell McPhee.
Do we think we can add a player of comparable talent in the draft? Unpredictable.

You measure the risk and you make the decision that you feel best helps the team. If your goal is to make a big free agent splash like the Commanders or Jerry in the past, then you are going about it wrong. If you think a guy like Julius Peppers improves your chances to win a title like Ted Thompson did, or a big time guy like Darrel Revis for the Patriots, you spend the free agency $$$.

Free agency AND the draft AND the waiver wire AND trades. Find talent however you can.

 

[KJJ]

Most free agents never make as big an impact once they leave their original team it could be that some lose their motivation once they sign a huge free agent deal and some simply don't fit in as well for their second team. Most disappoint and end up being a waste of money because some teams are so desperate to fill a hole they end up over paying to sign the player. One of the worst free agent signings the Cowboys ever made was Marcellus Wiley in 04. He was clearly in decline but for some reason Jerry thought he would provide a great pass rush and a bunch of sacks. Wiley was such a disappointment he only played one season with the Cowboys. Jerry overpaid Brandon Carr and after one decent season he's been a liability ever since.

Deion is about the only free agent I can think of off the top of my head that really made a significant impact for the Cowboys. Taking him away from SF made the biggest impact. WR's probably go bust more than any other position in free agency because they're only as good as the QB they're playing with. If they go to a team with a bad QB situation they're not going to produce. Rarely do you see a WR produce to the same level or better once they leave their original team. To build a championship team you have to do it through the draft that's how all the great teams were built. Seattle built their team through the draft and with a great trade for Lynch. Signing a free agent is a way to supplement a team but not a way to build a team.

 

[speedkilz88]

It can help. Seahawks put themselves over the top with Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett. And they didn't break the bank for those guys.

 

[Fredd]

Lol u just added another big name in Suh. Even if we franchise Dez we don't have the money...

said his name in the initial post as well...you get the best interior DT in the league, a potentially top-notch pass rusher from the outside to go along with the guys they have now...they truly would be the rushmen....and, they likely don't go after either......again, the question is to go all-in to buy a championship////that is how they could do it, IMO...I would be excited for it if it happened and also quite nervous that we screwed the pooch for later years

 

[BAT]

Yes because pointing to one example of a team that didn't win nit all proves something? Nevermind that their QB....probably the beset in history....was hurt down the stretch.

I hate when people point to individual outcomes/occurrences and use that as some kind of referendum on what to do or not to do. In a game with so many moving parts its a fools errand.

Nevermind using cash value is a silly.

Especially when there are more than a few examples of teams who HAVE won it all by signing multiple key FAs. Steve Young can thank Debartolo for skirting the cap and signing All Pros in their primes for his first and only championship:

Deion Sanders, Tim Harris, Rickey Jackson, Charles Mann, Richard Dent, Gary Plummer, Tim McDonald, Kenny Norton

Cowboys first SB win was supplemented with aging HOFers as well, Staubach and the original Doomsday Defense was aided by: Herb Adderley, Mike Ditka, Jackie Smith, Forrest Greg, Lance Alworth

 

[CF74]

said his name in the initial post as well...you get the best interior DT in the league, a potentially top-notch pass rusher from the outside to go along with the guys they have now...they truly would be the rushmen....and, they likely don't go after either......again, the question is to go all-in to buy a championship////that is how they could do it, IMO...I would be excited for it if it happened and also quite nervous that we screwed the pooch for later years

Run the numbers, I doubt we can swing it..

 

[Fredd]

Run the numbers, I doubt we can swing it..

I think they could likely swing whatever they wanted for a year or two, I think later they take a beating...in the beginning of any contracts, they can low-ball the money and it escalates later...thus, the robbing to pay peter analogy....I don't buy into that type of process, but it is possible...you can't tell me that having Suh and JPP on this team wouldn't give them a significant better chance of getting the to the SB...yes, they are going to be VERY expensive, so will dez...but it is doable...I see other people putting numbers out here stating that they can make $30m to $40m in cap room if they wanted...so, it is possible to sign these guys...you would just kill the future...

...also, I'll say it again, I don't want them to do this, but it would be interesting and exciting

 

[LittleD]

I think they could likely swing whatever they wanted for a year or two, I think later they take a beating...in the beginning of any contracts, they can low-ball the money and it escalates later...thus, the robbing to pay peter analogy....I don't buy into that type of process, but it is possible...you can't tell me that having Suh and JPP on this team wouldn't give them a significant better chance of getting the to the SB...yes, they are going to be VERY expensive, so will dez...but it is doable...I see other people putting numbers out here stating that they can make $30m to $40m in cap room if they wanted...so, it is possible to sign these guys...you would just kill the future...

...also, I'll say it again, I don't want them to do this, but it would be interesting and exciting

I don't think the Cowboys would break the budget for any of the top names likely to make it to FA. I think if Jerry has just his way there might
be only one player that he would break open his checkbook and bust the cap for and that's AP if he makes it to FA. They will look for mid to
lower tier FA on the defense to fill in holes and work heavily in the draft just as they have for the last few years.

 

[Fredd]

I don't think the Cowboys would break the budget for any of the top names likely to make it to FA. I think if Jerry has just his way there might
be only one player that he would break open his checkbook and bust the cap for and that's AP if he makes it to FA. They will look for mid to
lower tier FA on the defense to fill in holes and work heavily in the draft just as they have for the last few years.

I tend to agree, but I was just playing along with the thread...I would hope that they continue to make "football moves" (sorry, had to say that, I'm not over it either Dez) to make the team better not just in 2015, but for the next 5 to 10 years...

 

[JoeyBoy718]

You can still be a big free agency spender without signing any big names. My ideal situation would be to literally bring back every free agent and sign a couple of cheap guys like Sheard. There's no Suh or Hardy in that equation but it would still cost the same.

 

[KJJ]

Nope.

When it comes to a lousy return when it comes to free agents, the Commanders take the top prize.

The Commanders have been shafted by several free agent signings but no shafting worse than the one they took from Albert Haynesworth. Never seen a player screw an organization like that. I'll never forget Mike Shanahan's presser saying that some players are lazy, lack character while others lack passion and that Haynesworth lacks all three.

 

[locked&loaded]

Didn't we just see the All-In model with the Broncos last year? Signing Ware, Talib, Ward, and Sanders all at large numbers that will screw their potential cap? And didn't we see how that worked out?

Manning tore his thigh... not a good example

 

[LittleD]

You can still be a big free agency spender without signing any big names. My ideal situation would be to literally bring back every free agent and sign a couple of cheap guys like Sheard. There's no Suh or Hardy in that equation but it would still cost the same.

You are probably on the right track. I think by the time they sign many of their own free agents and fill a couple of holes the money will be gone unless
they decide to restructure Romo again and I know Stephen does not want to kick that can again.

 

[JoeyBoy718]

You are probably on the right track. I think by the time they sign many of their own free agents and fill a couple of holes the money will be gone unless
they decide to restructure Romo again and I know Stephen does not want to kick that can again.

Yep. When people think "free agent" they think from another team. We have some of the biggest free agent names on our own roster. Dez and Murray and the biggest at their positions. Free and Parnell will probably be some of the biggest OTs. Even guys like Leary and Beasley. And I can see teams being interested in a young LB like Carter, even McClain and Durant. Then you have DEs like Spencer and Selvie, and DTs like Melton. Then do we keep Carr?

I want every single one of them back. I think we might have been the best team in the NFL last year. At least we were in the top 5. If we can bring back the same unit, get some guys like Lee back healthy, and add some high draft picks, I see us competing again. Problem is, what I just mentioned would cost the same as if we only resigned half our own guys and went out and got some big names like Suh and Hardy.

 

[KJJ]

Didn't we just see the All-In model with the Broncos last year? Signing Ware, Talib, Ward, and Sanders all at large numbers that will screw their potential cap? And didn't we see how that worked out?

Those moves improved their defense Denver went from 19th in total defense in 2013 to 4th in 2014. Things didn't work out because although their defense improved their offense wasn't nearly as good. While they took a big step forward on defense they took several steps backwards on offense. Denver had one of the greatest offenses in the history of the league in 2013 with Manning setting several passing records.

Even before his thigh injury he wasn't putting up as big a numbers as he did in 2013. The thigh injury affected his numbers even more his yards and TD's were well below what we saw in 2013. His int's went up while his TD's, completion percentage and passer rating went down. Manning had almost 700 fewer passing yards and 16 fewer TD passes in 2014.

 

[skinsscalper]

No, but the Patriots paid Revis 12M for 2014 and added Brandon Browner for 3 years, 15.5M.

The Cowboys wouldn't have won the 1995 SB without Deion.

It was a trade, not FA, but Charles Haley was the missing piece to the 1992, 1993 Super Bowls. Could a FA DE be that missing piece for Cowboys (Hardy anyone?).

I drew that same parallel a couple of weeks ago, also. I don't think that we need to go stupid in FA but a proven pass rusher is a must and counting on a rookie to produce that (even a highly drafted one) is a fool's errand.