Cautionary Tale about Need vs BPA

Carson

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This is one reason why I don't get the freak out about possibly using a 2nd or 3rd on a back.

Everyone thought Barber was a stud. And he was done in a year or two after his monster season.

Do I want to use a 2nd on a back, absolutely not.

But if you can demonstrate that the player has a chance to be a special back capable of starting if need be, I can be convinced.

Agreed. I feel our FO did enough this offseason to not be forced to reach on anybody.

Now we didn’t get elite talent at some positions. But we signed smart guys with NFL starting experience.

Let the board fall how it will
 

Hardline

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You're clearly using hindsight here. They had a second round grade on Frederick.

They had 18 first round grades that year.


We have different definitions of BPA. To me it's follow your board and take the best player available regardless of position.

BPA to me is not trading 13 spots back, when there are five players worthy of your pick in the 1st round, and settling for a second round graded player.

People can disagree with me on the Frederick example, but they've passed up their highest rated player available in drafts before to account for positional needs - I gave another example with Connor Cook. It's not something they do a lot or something the front office deserves criticism over with how much success they've had in recent years.
I am not using hindsight I actually knew what kind of player Frederick was going to be .
 

Hardline

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Not true. Teams that have young franchise QB’s pass on QB’s who are rated much higher than the player they pick.
Franchise QBs are the highest rated players.
There's nothing rated higher in football than a franchise QB
 

xwalker

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The entire premise of BPA is to get the best player/value/talent available. They had a second round grade on Frederick that year, not "borderline 1st/2nd."

They also had a 2nd round grade on Connor Cook in 2016. They opted to drafted Maliek Collins in the 3rd round over Cook. Also took Tapper in the 4th over him. Then Cook got picked by the Raiders, and we "settled" for Dak with the second 4th rounder.

Any BPA purists upset that we didn't take Connor Cook?

It does not matter what grade they had on Frederick. The other players were off the board at #31.

QB was a bigger need in 2016 than DT (They almost traded back into the 1st for Paxton Lynch). They had just signed DT Crawford to a big contract in 2015. They had just signed free agent DT Thorton and they had DT Terrell McClain who Marinelli loved.

They apparently had 2nd thoughts about Connor Cook's character on draft day. When they put their draft board together, they will take players off the board for character issues; however, if they do have a player on the board, then they don't rank them based on character. They make clear notes of all character issues and flag it for consideration at draft time. McClay likes a talent focused draft board because he knows that need and character/medical issues will be decided by Jerry/Stephen at draft time (Jerry does not get fired for taking a risk on Randy Gregory or Jaylon Smith if they don't work out).

Final note: BPA is much more of a 1st/2nd round issue. It's a very low probability in the 4th round that passing on a higher rated player means passing on an a Future All-Pro.
 

JBell

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It does not matter what grade they had on Frederick. The other players were off the board at #31.

QB was a bigger need in 2016 than DT (They almost traded back into the 1st for Paxton Lynch). They had just signed DT Crawford to a big contract in 2015. They had just signed free agent DT Thorton and they had DT Terrell McClain who Marinelli loved.

They apparently had 2nd thoughts about Connor Cook's character on draft day. When they put their draft board together, they will take players off the board for character issues; however, if they do have a player on the board, then they don't rank them based on character. They make clear notes of all character issues and flag it for consideration at draft time. McClay likes a talent focused draft board because he knows that need and character/medical issues will be decided by Jerry/Stephen at draft time (Jerry does not get fired for taking a risk on Randy Gregory or Jaylon Smith if they don't work out).

Final note: BPA is much more of a 1st/2nd round issue. It's a very low probability in the 4th round that passing on a higher rated player means passing on an a Future All-Pro.
This whole thread was created because you're upset we passed on McCoy by not following BPA.

If you're going to get upset at that instance, then you should get upset when they do it every time. Not just when it's convenient and the player we passed on turns out to be a stud.

They had a 2nd round grade on Cook and a 3rd round grade on Collins. That's not debatable, the draft board was leaked that year.

And that's the first I heard of them having second thoughts on Connor Cook. You have a link? From what I read, they were ready to pull the trigger on him in the 4th round, but got sniped the pick before by the Raiders. They then ended up drafting Charles Tapper (I mispoke in my other post. They took Maliek Collins over a higher rated Connor Cook, they didn't draft Tapper over Cook) and Dak later in the round.

So they took Maliek Collins over a higher rated player, but I don't see any tears for Connor Cook.
 

Rockport

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Franchise QBs are the highest rated players.
There's nothing rated higher in football than a franchise QB
And teams in the 2nd round pass on higher rated players when they’re QB’s all the time because they already have a QB
 

JD_KaPow

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We have different definitions of BPA. To me it's follow your board and take the best player available regardless of position.

BPA to me is not trading 13 spots back, when there are five players worthy of your pick in the 1st round, and settling for a second round graded player.
If you think your intel is good and that at least one of those guys will be there, and the drop-off between guys isn't huge, and the trade value is good enough, then sure you do. It's a calculated risk. You may not have the risk tolerance they do, but that doesn't mean it isn't a BPA strategy.
 

xwalker

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This whole thread was created because you're upset we passed on McCoy by not following BPA.

If you're going to get upset at that instance, then you should get upset when they do it every time. Not just when it's convenient and the player we passed on turns out to be a stud.

They had a 2nd round grade on Cook and a 3rd round grade on Collins. That's not debatable, the draft board was leaked that year.

And that's the first I heard of them having second thoughts on Connor Cook. You have a link? From what I read, they were ready to pull the trigger on him in the 4th round, but got sniped the pick before by the Raiders. They then ended up drafting Charles Tapper (I mispoke in my other post. They took Maliek Collins over a higher rated Connor Cook, they didn't draft Tapper over Cook) and Dak later in the round.

So they took Maliek Collins over a higher rated player, but I don't see any tears for Connor Cook.
My OP was a warning about over-focusing on need.

It was not to lament a bad draft decision by the team. That draft has already been lamented enough.

Some people this year exclaim that they would go postal if the Cowboys drafted a RB at #58.

My point is that it's most important to pick good players regardless of position and regardless of how they arrived at the decision.

You don't appear to understand how they use their draft board.

Jaylon Smith was the 5th player on their board in the 1st round column.

They were not going to draft Jaylon that early.

They didn't include the injury in the draft board.

They didn't include character concerns in the Connor Cook draft board ranking.

They make the final medical/character decisions at draft time.
 

Cowboys1fan

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When they speak of bpa obviously it’s the bpa of all the guys that they’ve ranked based off of needs. We’re not taking Haskins at 58 just bc he’s the best on the board. The overall board and our board are two different boards
 

cnuball21

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Draft boards are partially built on need, so it has to be considered.

Sure you don’t want to over stretch, but you don’t just draft a kid bc he’s higher on your board.

We’re not drafting a QB or RB at 58.
 

LACowboysFan1

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Not true. Teams that have young franchise QB’s pass on QB’s who are rated much higher than the player they pick.

Yeah, pretty sure there were running backs that were higher rated than Larry Bethea, in 1978, but with a Dorsett on your team, which won the SB, it would make no sense to draft the running back.

Need always factors in to your first draft pick, whether it's the primary reason or second or third highest factor. Flexibility is crucial. The "always take the BPA" is no better than "always draft for need".

The NFL is far too complicated to go all in on one tactic...
 

Sydla

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Is this nothing more than some bizarre defense of why it would be smart to take a TB at 58?
 

DanA

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Exactly why you draft BPA.
There is no legitimate argument against it.


There is absolutely an argument against it. For example. Lets saying at picks 58, 90 and 128, and 146 at every pick a LB was the best player....are you gonna take four LB's? I guarantee that's not the best strategy. We've got Smith and LVE who are pro-bowl caliber, you don't need/can't use four more in the position.

Obviously, this is an extreme, but if you're willing to accept that not taking BPA in this situation is an argument against it then we're just arguing where to draw the line. And accepted that there's a legitimate argument against it.
 

Hardline

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There is absolutely an argument against it. For example. Lets saying at picks 58, 90 and 128, and 146 at every pick a LB was the best player....are you gonna take four LB's? I guarantee that's not the best strategy. We've got Smith and LVE who are pro-bowl caliber, you don't need/can't use four more in the position.

Obviously, this is an extreme, but if you're willing to accept that not taking BPA in this situation is an argument against it then we're just arguing where to draw the line. And accepted that there's a legitimate argument against it.
If the BPA is a position that you are set at is there you trade down and take the BPA at that draft slot. But also the draft is about looking towards the future. Just because you don't need a LB this year doesn't mean you won't two years from now.
So BPA is by far the best way to draft
 

Melonfeud

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My OP was a warning about over-focusing on need.

It was not to lament a bad draft decision by the team. That draft has already been lamented enough.

Some people this year exclaim that they would go postal if the Cowboys drafted a RB at #58.

My point is that it's most important to pick good players regardless of position and regardless of how they arrived at the decision.

You don't appear to understand how they use their draft board.

Jaylon Smith was the 5th player on their board in the 1st round column.

They were not going to draft Jaylon that early.

They didn't include the injury in the draft board.

They didn't include character concerns in the Connor Cook draft board ranking.

They make the final medical/character decisions at draft time.
It's clarity is as crystal clear as mountain snow pack melt water to me now,Brother Xwalker:star:
 

DFWJC

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It sounds like Shady was at least one tier (and maybe two) ahead of anyone left on our board.
If that's the case, you always take the player

But if two players are in the same tier (even though you may have them listed in a an order its really splitting hairs) you take the BPA of need. Would not be violating anything doing that.

Say the draft goes (random example)

Tier 1 and Tier 2 (1st round grades)
--19 players all taken

Tier 3 (22 players)
-- all taken

Tier 4 (20 players)
-- 15 taken, 5 left...they are
--RB
--DT
--S
--whatever

Tier 5 (23 players)

Tier 6 (21 players)

etc

----------------

Anyway
Chances are we don't the RB in this case even if by splitting hairs he is slightly higher in the board. We probably take the DT or S in this case.


fwiw, McCoy was the 53rd pick in the draft. Every single team passed on him at least once. The Pats passed on him 4 times, for example.
Terrible drafty by Dallas anyway
 
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kskboys

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The Cowboys passed on LeSean McCoy in the 2009 2nd round.

They had McCoy rated as a 1st round pick.

They had pick #51.

McCoy was drafted at #53.

Felix Jones peak yards per season after that was 800 in 2010.

Marion Barber had 975 yards in 2009 then averaged 400 for 2 seasons before being out of the NFL.

The best player from that Cowboys draft was TE John Phillips. He has averaged 4.3 starts per year and has primarily been a #2 blocking TE.

McCoy has been a 10 year starter with 14,222 total yards and 84 TDs.

Only 13 RBs in the HoF have more rushing yards than McCoy and McCoy is still playing. He only needs 630 yards to pass OJ Simpson in rushing yards. He is already ahead of Simpson in TDs and well ahead of him in receiving stats.

Only 3 of the top 12 rushers in the HoF have better receiving stats than McCoy.

Summary:
The Cowboys passed on a HoF player and instead got next to nothing because they didn't "need" a RB that year.

Even if they had picked better players, McCoy was the best player after the 1st round that year and one of the best in the entire draft.

The Cowboys had a 1st round grade on him but passed on him at #51.
That's a success story. Don't forget, Felix Jones was BPA when we drafted him!!!!!!
 
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