Chances to win the Super Bowl through week 12

john van brocklin

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Don’t see why this would be the case.

We need a ton of help to even get a home game.

How we are the NFC favorites makes little sense.
Having us ranked above the Fortywhiners is also a bit odd.
Of course when they make the odds they are attempting to draw in bets and the Cowboys are very popular.
Maybe that's a factor?
 

TexasHillbilly

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I am not sure about who has the weaker schedule but I do know that listening to the Anal-ysts about these types of topics is a bad habit.

Do I think we are better than the eagles? Yes. Not sure about beating them or anyone else in the post season. Let's see how the Cowboys do the rest of the way.
 

lukin2006

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Mike McCarthys Super Bowl team in Green Bay was 10-6 and was a wild card team.
 

TexasHillbilly

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We won't come playoff time. Or maybe they're projecting we take the 1 seed from Philly or Minnesota? Odd way of doing things.
I don't think we take anything away from Philly when it comes to the division crown. We will make it as a WC if we get in and then who knows.
 

lkelly

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Having us ranked above the Fortywhiners is also a bit odd.
Of course when they make the odds they are attempting to draw in bets and the Cowboys are very popular.
Maybe that's a factor?
How is FiveThirtyEight tied to sports book profitability?

My guess is that they are just using probability caculations based on predictions. Having a relatively easy schedule gives a boost to Dallas as the sequential calculations are done. Reduce the down the number of games and things can swing wildly. If Dallas has to play an extra playoff game compared to Philly, and has to potentially play at Philly, those numbers will really change. Even if we were 60% favorites over a team like Tampa (ignoring all the Brady history), that's a real drag on final probability compared to a 100% chance of winning due to a bye.

In essence, these numbers mean very little at this point. A key injury here and there could also make them seem grossly premature.

Edit: for entertainment purposes, you can put in your own outcomes and see what the 538 odds do in response: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nfl-predictions/
To underscore my point above, put in 2-0 for both Dallas and Philly over the next 2 weeks and they have Philly at 19% to win the super bowl with Dallas at 14%. Those Tenn and NYG games represent probability hits for Philly because they aren't gimmes.
 
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Oz-of-Cowboy-Country

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I just thought the Chiefs and Bills would be a little closer than that. The love Mahomes gets is too much, to me, at times. I don't watch the games or the highlights, but his play in one of those Super Bowls wasn't all that inspiring. And that's pretty much the only memory I have of him.
 

JD_KaPow

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Hard to imagine the Cowboys being ahead of the Eagles, given that PHI has the inside line on HFA.

FO has six teams over 5% to win the SB:
PHI 22.8%
KC 16.7%
BUF 14.8%
DAL 11.1%
BAL 9.0%
SF 8.1%

Their DVOA ratings actually have PHI and DAL in a virtual tie, so it's really all about the difference between being the #1 seed and the #5 seed.
Their ratings think both BAL and BUF are a little better than KC, but again, being in line for the bye gives KC the edge. The difference isn't as big as in the NFC because BUF is likely to win their division and be the #2 seed.

These odds seem much more reasonable to me.
 
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