Comparing 2016 Defense to 2014

[Sydla]

Exactly, using things like "Total amount of time of possession" is exactly how you get completely fake stats like "Women make 77% of what men make".

Except it's been many of the pro-Elliott at #4 camp who have been touting the time of possession angle and how it will keep the defense fresh and all this other stuff. When the stats clearly showed that wasn't the case, the group has now tried to shift their argument.

Rogerthat actually proves what many of the anti-Elliott at 4 have been saying all along and yet you guys can't see that. It's stunningly bizarre.

 

[cowboys2233]

Exactly, using things like "Total amount of time of possession" is exactly how you get completely fake stats like "Women make 77% of what men make".

I always liked the "total yards from scrimmage" stat they came up with to make running QBs feel better about themselves. How many times does a guy like Brady or Romo throw for 300 and run for 10, and the media comes out and says he accounted for 310 total yards from scrimmage? Never. But a guy like Newton can throw for 200 and run for 100 and all of the sudden, 300 "total yards from scrimmage" is a relevant stat that the media just fawns over.

 

[Kaiser]

Yeah, player by player, I would agree, 2016 seems much better. On the other hand, I watched that 2014 defense play and they were far better than the sum of their parts. In other words, prove it. But yes, I think there is a lot of reason for optimism in this small two-year window (Romo) we have.

Totally agree, but 2014 was Marinelli's first year as DC. The players this year are more talented and the returning veterans have more time in his system, so (health permitting) they should be better.

 

[Kaiser]

Except it's been many of the pro-Elliott at #4 camp who have been touting the time of possession angle and how it will keep the defense fresh and all this other stuff. When the stats clearly showed that wasn't the case, the group has now tried to shift their argument.

Rogerthat actually proves what many of the anti-Elliott at 4 have been saying all along and yet you guys can't see that. It's stunningly bizarre.

I'm not responsible for what others write. I think what you are missing is that controlling the clock in a win is different than ending up with time on the clock in a loss - even if the numbers add up to the same total at the end of the year.

The critical numbers are 12-4 and 4-12.

 

[Kaiser]

I always liked the "total yards from scrimmage" stat they came up with to make running QBs feel better about themselves. How many times does a guy like Brady or Romo throw for 300 and run for 10, and the media comes out and says he accounted for 310 total yards from scrimmage? Never. But a guy like Newton can throw for 200 and run for 100 and all of the sudden, 300 "total yards from scrimmage" is a relevant stat that the media just fawns over.

Agree, its human nature to cherry pick stats that support your own argument.

That quote "Politicians use statistics in the same way that a drunk uses lamp-posts—for support rather than illumination" was actually written over a hundred years ago.

 

[CowboyRoy]

The strategy for 2016 will be identical to 2014 when the team went 12-4. Dallas will try to win with offense and have a “good enough” defense that stays fresh because the offense controls time of possession. Everything comes down to execution and staying healthy, but I thought it would be interesting to compare the 2016 defensive players to 2014 because the current roster is significantly better in quality and depth.


The offense will be largely the same players. Tony Romo and Doug Free are older and more of a injury risk. Zeke replaces DeMarco this year and Collins replaces Leary. QB depth is worse but RB depth is better. Otherwise it’s the same.


On Defense, check out the position comparison:




RDE 2014: George Selvie and some Tyrone Crawford (first year) and Anthony Spencer (injured)


RDE 2016: Demarcus Lawrence, David Irving and Ryan Russell


Winner: 2016 on quality and depth.




1T 2014: Nick Hayden and Terrell McClain, a bit of Ken Bishop and Josh Brent


1T 2014: Thornton, McClain and Maliek Collins


Winner: Clearly 2016.




3T 2014: Henry Melton and some Tyrone Crawford (first year) and Davon Coleman


3T 2016: Tyrone Crawford, Jack Crawford, Maliek Collins


Winner: Clearly 2016.




RDE 2014: Jeremy Mincey and 9 tackles from rookie DeMarkus Lawrence


RDE 2016: Mayowa, Tapper and Randy Gregory


Winner: Complete Wildcard. Mincey played well in 2014 and this year’s group could be very good, very bad or anything in between.




WLB 2014: Bruce Carter and Keith Smith


WLB 2016: Sean Lee and Damien Wilson


Winner: 2016




MLB 2014: Ro McClain and Cam Lawrence


MLB 2014: Ro McClain and Andrew Gachkar (and Anthony Hitchens)


Winner: Wildcard, though McClain had 81 tackles in 2014 and may not repeat that.




SLB 2014: Justin Durant and Kyle Wilber


SLB 2016: Anthony Hitchens, Kyle Wilber, Mark Neozcha and Jaylon Smith


Winner: 2016 because Durant only started 6 games in 2014. Potential to be much better in 2016 if Jaylon Smith comes back at midseason.




Corners: Scandrick, Carr and Claiborne are starters for both years, depth is likely better this year.


Safeties 2014: JJ Wilcox, Barry Church, Jeff Heath and CJ Spillman


Safeties 2016: Byron Jones, JJ Wilcox, Barry Church, Jeff Heath and Kavon Frazier.


Winner: Push at Corner, Safety is clearly better with Byron Jones at FS.

Thanks for the laugh!!!

 

[Kaiser]

Thanks for the laugh!!!

Glad to take your mind off your shinebox!!

 

[CowboyRoy]

Good write up Kaiser. I agree with most of what you said. I would add, the Cowboys also look to be better overall on offense...although, my concerns for Romo staying healthy now are much more pronounced then what they were then...

LOL......how about horrible write up.

Our two starting defensive ends is a guy off the practice squad from Oakland that had 2 sacks in 700 snaps and a 4th round rookie. And someone is right, the defense in 2014 was top 3 in turnovers. The chances of that happening again are slim to none. Any of you cats that laughably try to imply that our defense is better now are fooling themselves. And wait to the injuries kick in.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Glad to take your mind off your shinebox!!

You got something against shining shoes?

 

[Kaiser]

Our two starting defensive end are a guy on off the practice squad from Oakland that had 2 sacks in 700 snaps

And 2014 had a starting DE in Selvie that didn't even get a NFL camp invitation that year.

Read more, post less.

 

[CowboyRoy]

And 2014 had a starting DE in Selvie that didn't even get a NFL camp invitation that year.

Read more, post less.

Selvie played very well for us. Remember more dream less.

 

[Sydla]

I'm not responsible for what others write. I think what you are missing is that controlling the clock in a win is different than ending up with time on the clock in a loss - even if the numbers add up to the same total at the end of the year.

The critical numbers are 12-4 and 4-12.

And has been shown to you, the stats tend to show there really isn't a big difference there either.

People have long overestimated the effect Elliott and the run game will have on this defense. The single biggest non-defensive player that can affect the defense is Romo, not Elliott.

As Rogerthat said, the difference between 2014 and 2015 was we were scoring in 2014 because we had Romo. And that's the point most of us have been making. People are putting too much emphasis on Elliott when in fact it's really Romo and the passing game that determines the fate of the 2016 season.

 

[waldoputty]

And has been shown to you, the stats tend to show there really isn't a big difference there either.

People have long overestimated the effect Elliott and the run game will have on this defense. The single biggest non-defensive player that can affect the defense is Romo, not Elliott.

As Rogerthat said, the difference between 2014 and 2015 was we were scoring in 2014 because we had Romo. And that's the point most of us have been making. People are putting too much emphasis on Elliott when in fact it's really Romo and the passing game that determines the fate of the 2016 season.

Romo/QB is the #1 factor.
If Romo goes down, we will get a much better draft pick.
Assuming Romo stays healthy, the RB is next if you emphasize the running game, which we did in 2014.
If I remember correctly, Murray himself average more than 0.5 yard extra earlier in the season before he was worn down.
Elliott is superior talent, faster and better decisions, and fumbles less.
An extra yard per carry would be huge in terms of 3rd down conversion (defense plays less) and protects Romo.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

The defense will only improve once it does the following:

1. Improve its ability to switch up coverages. Playing man, zone and the different kinds of zone and being able to have the back 7 be able to switch between those roles.

2. Improve their tackling.

If we want to see more turnovers and get more pressure on the QB, it has to start there. Otherwise we are just spinning our wheels.







YR

 

[KJJ]

That 2014 Defense generated a lot of turnovers. I think its safe to say, if this years defense doesnt do the same, we will struggle...

The 2014 defense generated a lot of turnovers because they weren't on the field as much they averaged 12-13 fewer plays per game than the 2013 team. Only Seattle and Pittsburgh's defense spent less time on the field than the Cowboys defense in 2014. A fresh defense is more alert which makes it easier to force turnovers.

 

[Sydla]

The 2014 defense generated a lot of turnovers because they weren't on the field as much they averaged 12-13 fewer plays per game than the 2013 team. Only Seattle and Pittsburgh's defense spent less time on the field than the Cowboys defense in 2014. A fresh defense is more alert which makes it easier to force turnovers.

Again, that's not true. The 2013 defense played about 7 plays more a game than the 2014 one. The 2015 defense, that didn't generate turnovers, only averaged 1 more play a game than the 2014 one.

What the should tell you is that "freshness" and time on the field doesn't necessarily correlate to this team's ability to create turnovers.

 

[KJJ]

Again, that's not true. The 2013 defense played about 7 plays more a game than the 2014 one. The 2015 defense, that didn't generate turnovers, only averaged 1 more play a game than the 2014 one.

What the should tell you is that "freshness" and time on the field doesn't necessarily correlate to this team's ability to create turnovers.

It's been "reported" by those on NFL Network that the Cowboys 2014 defense spent an average of 12-13 fewer plays per game on the field than the 2013 defense. Feel free to post a link with information that refutes NFL Networks claim. I'm not the one who did the math I'm just providing what's been reported. The 2015 team was playing catch up in a lot of games while the 2014 team was playing with a lot of leads. Our opponents were having to play catch up in 2014 which leads to mistakes.

 

[Sydla]

It's been "reported" that the Cowboys 2014 defense spent an average of 12-13 fewer plays per game on the field than the 2013 defense. Feel free to post a link with information that refutes it. I'm not the one who did the math I'm just providing what's been reported. The 2015 team was playing catch up in a lot of games while the 2014 team was playing with a lot of leads. Our opponents were having to play catch up in 2014 which leads to mistakes.

Show me the "reports". Because I have doubts that noteworthy media outlets would make such a big mistake as that. It took me about 10 seconds to look up the number of plays the opponents ran against us for 2013, 2014 and 2015 with google and I was able to confirm them. If I recall, you were one of the ones saying that there was a 10+ play difference between the 2014 and 2015 teams as well which got refuted quickly.

And the second part of your post is accurate. But again, that has more to do with Romo and the passing game being here to generate points than the running game keeping the defense "fresh".

 

[KJJ]

The Cowboys

Show me the "reports". Because I have doubts that noteworthy media outlets would make such a big mistake as that. It took me about 10 seconds to look up the number of plays the opponents ran against us for 2013, 2014 and 2015 with google and I was able to confirm them. If I recall, you were one of the ones saying that there was a 10+ play difference between the 2014 and 2015 teams as well which got refuted quickly.

And the second part of your post is accurate. But again, that has more to do with Romo and the passing game being here to generate points than the running game keeping the defense "fresh".

They weren't written reports it was reported during NFL Networks Total Access telecast. Both Willie McGinest, Heath Evans along with host Dan Hellie have reported it. It's been reported numerous times on NFL Network and I can't imagine I'm the only one who's heard it. If it's incorrect than provide a link with information that refutes what's been reported by that Network which is the only sports Network I listen to. Regardless what the number of plays was it was a significant difference. If you want to refute what's being "reported" provide a link.

 

[KJJ]

Besides the defense being on the field too much in 2015 another reason we weren't forcing turnovers was the offense was turning the ball over at a higher rate than we did in 2014. This put the defense back on the field and in some cases having to defend a short field. The offense holding onto the ball makes life a lot easier for the defense.