Confirming how poorly Twill is as #1 WR and the blessing of Beasley

[silver]

It ain't easy when only half of the balls thrown your way are catchable. He must be surprised when Weeden hits him in stride. He's not Jerry Rice, but again, when your QB is one of the all time worst it can complicate things a bit.

 

[xwalker]

I think comparing drops is perfectly fine.

Incompletions may, or may not, be drops. Most often they aren't. Route type and QB accuracy don't really matter when counting drops because drops only occur on passes that are sufficiently catchable which means they are, by nature, on target independent of the route type.

He had 2 drops. That is an extremely small sample size. Calculating percentages from 1 or 2 drops at this point in the season is worthless.

Beasley had 1 less drop but he also has less targets.

Dave Chappelle had a video/skit "When keeping it real goes wrong". I would like to change that to "When playing with stats goes wrong".

 

[Staubacher]

Remember Alvin Harper...he was great with Aikman, Smith and Irvin....went to TB, and disappeared.
Not comparing Twill or Beasley to him, but missing your big play makers sure hurts any player. Even Witten has not shown up like we thought he would have. He has been taken out of most games too.

Witten has been wide open a lot down the seam but Weeden happened

 

[RS12]

Didnt PFF to confirm this. Eyeballs say Williams is a 2 and half. Also say if he gets another contract from the Cowboys it needs to be very team friendly.

 

[fortdick]

Yeah they do.

Agree, I have noticed.

 

[conner01]

He had 2 drops. That is an extremely small sample size. Calculating percentages from 1 or 2 drops at this point in the season is worthless.

Beasley had 1 less drop but he also has less targets.

Dave Chappelle had a video/skit "When keeping it real goes wrong". I would like to change that to "When playing with stats goes wrong".

Very good point
Funny part is he wouldn't he have the worst drop pct on the team
Dez would with 1 drop on 7 targets
Stats, especially this early in the season are useless for the most part

 

[xwalker]

Very good point
Funny part is he wouldn't he have the worst drop pct on the team
Dez would with 1 drop on 7 targets
Stats, especially this early in the season are useless for the most part

It would be great if people had to get a certification or license before using or referencing stats.

 

[Risen Star]

It's funny that nobody seems to notice he sucks when Romo and Dez are out there... Beasley is awesome in his role, but also needs Romo and Dez to excel with more open space.

It's called impact players and complimentary players. Williams is a complimentary player. When he's asked to play outside of that role he'll struggle every time.

Same with that board darling Lance Dunbar. He's a bit player. A guy who needs to be forgotten about to have any production. Start running your offense around him and he'll flop.

 

[AsthmaField]

"Fine #2" or "Piece of #2"? Small difference!

 

[Frozen700]

I've been saying T-Will was booty cheeks. Trash *** player

 

[ShiningStar]

IF T Will, Beasly, or Street were replaced anytime soon, i wouldnt lose sleep over it.

 

[Spectre]

It's funny that nobody seems to notice he sucks when Romo and Dez are out there... Beasley is awesome in his role, but also needs Romo and Dez to excel with more open space.

That is untrue. There are many of us here that have been acknowledging T-Will's inept hands and body-catching for a long time now. Beasley's targets are 'easier' passes to grab- by and large. Beasleys role is a bonus with the likes of Dez on the field, but he isn't really a formidable receiver either. The fact is, this receiver corps is weak w/o Dez. I predicted it. Should have drafted a guy and/or brought someone in to truly challenge T-Will (for #2 spot) before the season.

Burrito Supreme!!!

 

[Hoofbite]

He had 2 drops. That is an extremely small sample size. Calculating percentages from 1 or 2 drops at this point in the season is worthless.

Beasley had 1 less drop but he also has less targets.

Yes, that's what the article says. So what does a lower or higher expected completion percentage based on route type have to do with anything, and what does a more accurate or less accurate QB have to do with anything?

Drops are only counted when passes are on target. Expected completion percentage based on route is irrelevant because such completion percentages are based on the need for a better throw when a player is further down the field than when he is 5 yards from the LOS. Because drops only occur on plays where the throw was good, it's hard to understand why we broaden our scope to plays where the throw was bad. The expected completion percentage of the route doesn't make a dropped pass any less on target. A dropped pass is inherently on target and the pass was good so it doesn't matter where it was thrown. It was catchable and yet it was not caught. QB accuracy is also irrelevant for the same reason. If we're only looking at the times where the QB delivered the ball on target, is there any reason to reference the times when he did not?

If you want to take it a step further, defensive play is also largely irrelevant because incompletions that are a result of the DB are not counted as drops. Those are tallied in the, "Pass Defended", column. Whether or not the defense was playing off or playing on doesn't matter because contested passes that fall incomplete are credited to the defense. Therefore, we're only look at the uncontested passes that fell to the ground.

Is there something else you meant by listing these very reasons for why a comparison of drops is inappropriate?

Dave Chappelle had a video/skit "When keeping it real goes wrong". I would like to change that to "When playing with stats goes wrong".

I imagine it would be a great episode, too. Probably star a guy who throws out 2 or 3 factors that are more or less non-influential to the discussion at hand and then proceeds to get all smug about it when someone points out that he might be looking at how the data is measured from the wrong perspective.

 

[Risen Star]

But it's not a surprise that our WRs are getting criticized after a few weeks of starting Brandon Weeden.

Jerry Rice wouldn't be immune to this. That's how strong the suck is with Weeden.

 

[Bungarian]

One less drop, and he'd be among those with the best hands in the league!

What a ridiculous thread. I'd gladly trade one extra dropped pass for one less fumble lost and two more touchdowns.

This

 

[xwalker]

Yes, that's what the article says. So what does a lower or higher expected completion percentage based on route type have to do with anything, and what does a more accurate or less accurate QB have to do with anything?

Drops are only counted when passes are on target. Expected completion percentage based on route is irrelevant because such completion percentages are based on the need for a better throw when a player is further down the field than when he is 5 yards from the LOS. Because drops only occur on plays where the throw was good, it's hard to understand why we broaden our scope to plays where the throw was bad. The expected completion percentage of the route doesn't make a dropped pass any less on target. A dropped pass is inherently on target and the pass was good so it doesn't matter where it was thrown. It was catchable and yet it was not caught. QB accuracy is also irrelevant for the same reason. If we're only looking at the times where the QB delivered the ball on target, is there any reason to reference the times when he did not?

If you want to take it a step further, defensive play is also largely irrelevant because incompletions that are a result of the DB are not counted as drops. Those are tallied in the, "Pass Defended", column. Whether or not the defense was playing off or playing on doesn't matter because contested passes that fall incomplete are credited to the defense. Therefore, we're only look at the uncontested passes that fell to the ground.

Is there something else you meant by listing these very reasons for why a comparison of drops is inappropriate?



I imagine it would be a great episode, too. Probably star a guy who throws out 2 or 3 factors that are more or less non-influential to the discussion at hand and then proceeds to get all smug about it when someone points out that he might be looking at how the data is measured from the wrong perspective.

Again the difference in drops and completion percentage is not really relevant in this situation. The issue is that the sample size is way too small to look at drop percentages for this season.

I used 2014 completion percentages because it is a valid sample size and I don't have 2014 or career drop numbers.

If you have career or 2014 drop numbers then post them; otherwise, your explanation of drops vs incomplete passes is something that everyone already knows.

 

[dallasdave]

But it's not a surprise that our WRs are getting criticized after a few weeks of starting Brandon Weeden.

Jerry Rice wouldn't be immune to this. That's how strong the suck is with Weeden.