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Contrarian Article on how bad COVID19 is

Discussion in 'Coronavirus Zone' started by Kaiser, Mar 20, 2020.

  1. Ghost12

    Ghost12 Well-Known Member

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    Boysforlife has a legit point. It isn't a matter of simple math when we just don't know how many people have it. There was a study which suggested that 86% of coronavirus patients are undiagnosed. That means it isn't 685 of 52,996. Instead, if one believes that study, it is 685 out of roughly 380,000. Even if that study is half accurate, it still improves the survival rate significantly.

    That 35 million number of people who got the flu doesn't come from 35 million people all going to the doctor and all getting diagnosed. It comes from years of statistical sampling based on the history of the influenza virus. We are not at the point where can actually do that for Coronavirus.
     
  2. Ghost12

    Ghost12 Well-Known Member

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    I consider the shut down/quarantine to be among the health measures we are currently undertaking, hence my comment that there is nothing simple about the health measures we are all engaged in.
     
    BoysForLife likes this.
  3. BoysForLife

    BoysForLife Well-Known Member

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    LOL
    How do you not see "Time will tell, but it's inching downward day by day"
    You brag about your math skills. How about reading comp....:muttley:

    You are clearly trolling at this point. I am kind of ashamed that it took me so long to figure it out.
     
  4. BoysForLife

    BoysForLife Well-Known Member

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    well said.
    Unfortunately it's becoming clearer to me that he's not really serious about what he's saying
    at this point he's trolling imo. And good for him.
     
    Ghost12 likes this.
  5. visionary

    visionary Well-Known Member

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    well, at least you’re ashamed

    that’s a good start

    :muttley:
     
  6. BoysForLife

    BoysForLife Well-Known Member

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    Well played. I'll concede a point on that one

    Nonetheless I should have properly identified you earlier.
     
  7. visionary

    visionary Well-Known Member

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    Your agenda blinded you
    No worries, it still does
     
  8. BoysForLife

    BoysForLife Well-Known Member

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    Yeah. Something like that. Troll away mi amigo
     
  9. visionary

    visionary Well-Known Member

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    775 dead

    good thing it’s all media driven fake news
    :facepalm:
     
  10. CalPolyTechnique

    CalPolyTechnique Well-Known Member

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    I would love to see the methodology behind that study if it’s even legit. Do you have the journal article?
     
  11. CalPolyTechnique

    CalPolyTechnique Well-Known Member

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    I think two things can be equally true: 1) the hysteria is in large part due to the media; and 2) this is serious enough to be legitimately concerned about.
     
    Hadenough, visionary, Ghost12 and 3 others like this.
  12. Nova

    Nova Ntegrase96

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    If the 86% number is correct, that would still put coronavirus at around 6 times more lethal than the flu. Not taking a stance, just doing math.
     
    visionary and Ghost12 like this.
  13. Nova

    Nova Ntegrase96

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    Another thing is equally true that I don’t see mentioned here from any perspective:

    The United States preparedness and response already failed long ago.

    Therefore everything we do now has a negative consequence. That’s mitigation for ya.
     
    visionary and DakPresgoat like this.
  14. RoboQB

    RoboQB Well-Known Member

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    "Welcome to Thunderdome!"
     
  15. DakPresgoat

    DakPresgoat Well-Known Member

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    I’ve never understood people just blanket blaming “the media”.

    Everyone knows there is media biased in both directions out there. However just blanket blaming “the media” for negative things that happen is a cop out. There are also a lot of very legit, and talented journalists out there, that gather real facts and information and present it to people. How people
    decide to internalize that information comes down to each individual. The ability to think critically is key.


    Earlier on this thread we had some folks expressing concern that the government could use an issue such as COVID-19 to strip the rights away of citizens and slip the country further away from democracy and individual freedoms. It’s a valid and worthy concern for sure. That being said, disenfranchising “the media”, disenfranchising independent journalism and blaming it for all of societies woes is also an all too common tactic that can be used to strip the rights away from citizens too. There are so many examples of that happening throughout history, you would think more would be aware of it.

    Knowledge is power after all.


    When dealing with an issue like this. People definitely need to be careful where they are getting their information from. But disregarding valid information because it’s inconvenient or scary can be just as dangerous as the bad sources of media are for spreading fake information.
     
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2020
  16. DanA

    DanA Well-Known Member

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    Given the growth rate is doubling every 2-3 days, we are only test a small portion of the community but those likely to be infected, and it takes 10 days to show symptoms with probably more like 15 days to severe symptoms. I'm not accepting simple math calculations.
     
  17. Ghost12

    Ghost12 Well-Known Member

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    Oh the methodology is highly flawed - at least as it relates to the U.S. - because it was done by taking a sampling of the Wuhan population at a certain point in time. Regardless, see link below.

    I don’t buy the 86% number myself, but I think it could certainly be a situation where right here in the U.S. half of all cases are undiagnosed.

    https://www.mailman.columbia.edu/pu...ission-fuels-fast-spread-coronavirus-outbreak
     
    CalPolyTechnique likes this.
  18. TheDude

    TheDude McLovin

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    Peo
    Could be rurope
     
  19. visionary

    visionary Well-Known Member

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    :clap:
     
    DakPresgoat likes this.
  20. Nova

    Nova Ntegrase96

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    Nor should anyone accept simple math for something so complex.
     

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