Convince me the fade pattern is good

[erod]

That back-shoulder throw is tough for a lot of QBs. Not just Dak.

Romo is perfect with it, but he's Dr. Ford or Arnold when it comes to that throw.

 

[Future]

I could be wrong, but even with Romo and Dez and don't recall it being very successful at all.

Romo and Dez have torched teams with it.

They basically just read the corner and, depending on the positioning, Tony will throw it to the back pilon or back shoulder. There's not a corner in the game who can defend it.

 

[benson]

With a well thrown ball Dez comes up with it 90% of the time, there is no corner that can go up with Dez and defend it.

Dak simply cannot throw that pass, yet.

 

[gimmesix]

We saw it a couple more times in Pitt and they both failed. Not sure what the success rate is for the Cowboys, but it has to be poor at best.

Here are the reasons I hate this play with a passion:

1. Overall, it's a low percentage play at best.
2. It takes a perfect throw from the QB. It's not really one of Daks best throws so far in his short career.
3. There is almost 100% chance the WR is well covered.
4. It's a jump ball type play by design, which automatically makes it a 50-50 chance it will work even if things go well with the throw and route.
5. It's a pre-snap commitment. They either have to commit to it pre-snap or not. Once they commit to it, all other options are off the table. We saw this on the first try in the Pitt game. Once they committed to it, the 3 wr's on the opposite side pretty much just stood there after the snap. Go watch the replay. It is kind of comical the way the WR and DB are just standing around having a tea party during the play.
6. Don't get me wrong, I like Dez and what he can give the team, but he's too inconsistent with the tougher catches. In my opinion, the fade is a tough catch almost every time.

I am sure there are more reasons, but given the poor success rate of this play over the years in Dallas, I just don't know why it is attempted anymore.

I hate it, I hate it , I hate it. Can someone convince me why I shouldn't?

The play really gives the QB and receiver two options to beat the corner, and Dak has not mastered these options yet.

Option A is if the corner is playing physical. Then, your physical receiver pushes him upfield and you throw the back-shoulder. The defender is basically boxed out, making it impossible for him to defend that play without winning the physical battle with the bigger receiver.

Option B is if the corner tries to play finesse coverage in order to break on the back-shoulder throw. That's when you throw the fade to allow your taller, bigger receiver to go get the ball.

Romo was never really good at throwing the fade, but he was great at throwing the back-shoulder when the team is inside the 5. In 2013 and 2014, Bryant had a combined 29 TD catches and many of them were on this throw.

I think Dak has only thrown the back-shoulder once while attempting several poor fade throws, so the problem is less with the play and more with the execution of it.

 

[Zekeats]

We always run until we get in the redzone and then we throw it around

 

[Crown Royal]

The fade to Dez is a good pass, but it's not one that Dak has mastered yet. I said it in another thread, Dak can't yet make all the throws Romo can, but that's ok, because it took a few years for Romo to learn them all as well.

 

[JD_KaPow]

It's very hard to see from box scores, but I tried this. I just focused on Romo->Dez and Dak->Dez and looked up all passes from inside the 5 yard line that were marked as "left" or "right", not "middle." Not perfect, but I think the best I can do without video.

Only two Dak->Dez passes come up, and both were incomplete (yes, I'm sure there have been more, but they were probably from outside the 5, and if I expand the range to catch them, it'll just get even more muddled with passes that aren't actually to the end zone or aren't fades).

There are 19 Romo->Dez passes that meet these criteria. The tally is 11 completions (for 11 TDs) and 8 incompletions. No completions short of the pylon. So yeah, those may not all be fades, and I'm probably missing some other fade attempts, but I'm comfortable that the data says what my eyes tell me: Romo and Dez were really good at this, and Dak hasn't figured it out yet.

By the way, here's the breakdown for Romo->Dez by year:
2011: 1 for 3
2012: 1 for 3
2013: 6 for 8 (!)
2014: 3 for 4
2015: 0 for 1

So Crown Royal seems to be right: it took a while for Tony and Dez to master this.

One more tidbit: Kitna was 2-for-2 to Dez in 2010. (Again, fades? Don't know for sure.)

And another: no interceptions on these (at least the ones to Dez), so it is a pretty safe call.

 

[dogunwo]

I agree it's low risk play, but when it's a low success rate, what's the point?

Because the reward is high compared to the risk

 

[Hoods]

I could be wrong, but even with Romo and Dez and don't recall it being very successful at all.

It was almost automatic at the end.

 

[Yakuza Rich]

We saw it a couple more times in Pitt and they both failed. Not sure what the success rate is for the Cowboys, but it has to be poor at best.

Here are the reasons I hate this play with a passion:

1. Overall, it's a low percentage play at best.
2. It takes a perfect throw from the QB. It's not really one of Daks best throws so far in his short career.
3. There is almost 100% chance the WR is well covered.
4. It's a jump ball type play by design, which automatically makes it a 50-50 chance it will work even if things go well with the throw and route.
5. It's a pre-snap commitment. They either have to commit to it pre-snap or not. Once they commit to it, all other options are off the table. We saw this on the first try in the Pitt game. Once they committed to it, the 3 wr's on the opposite side pretty much just stood there after the snap. Go watch the replay. It is kind of comical the way the WR and DB are just standing around having a tea party during the play.
6. Don't get me wrong, I like Dez and what he can give the team, but he's too inconsistent with the tougher catches. In my opinion, the fade is a tough catch almost every time.

I am sure there are more reasons, but given the poor success rate of this play over the years in Dallas, I just don't know why it is attempted anymore.

I hate it, I hate it , I hate it. Can someone convince me why I shouldn't?

I can't. Fade patterns on 2 point conversions only work about 10% of the time in the NFL according to STATS, Inc. I can't remember the %'s on the back shoulder pass (faking the fade route), but I remember they are higher. Everybody knows the fade is coming as well. Need to come up with different schematics.




YR

 

[drawandstrike]

The fade pattern with Dak throwing it? I can't convince you. Not yet. Maybe in another year or two.

The fade pattern with ROMO throwing it? That's money. And I have the history to back that up.

 

[KJJ]

Dak and Dez simply aren't on the same page yet like Romo and Dez are. Eventually they will figure it out.

That's the issue.

 

[Doomsday101]

One thing about the end zone fade it is a fairly safe pass. Either it is caught for the TD or incomplete. Seldom does it get picked off

 

[T-RO]

That back-shoulder throw is tough for a lot of QBs. Not just Dak.

Romo is perfect with it, but he's Dr. Ford or Arnold when it comes to that throw.

Extra points for WW references.

 

[RS12]

Convince me the fade pattern is good

All depends on who is catching it and who is throw it.

 

[ConstantReboot]

Everyone wants to pile on Dak for not being able to make the throw. If the fade isn't working sometimes its Dez. Bryant needs to sell himself better by running better routes.

If all you can do is run deep routes and fade routes then thats the problem.

 

[Titleist]

I could be wrong, but even with Romo and Dez and don't recall it being very successful at all.

Sarcasm? We consistently torched teams with the fade in '13 and '14

 

[DandyDon52]

What I'd prefer inside the 5, is an option look.
A jump ball should be one of 3 or 4 options, including QB run.

Read option, roll right, throw slant, cross, or jump to Escobar, or QB keeper. 5 options there.

Some of these wrinkles are designed for the postseason, situations when a TD is mandatory.

very good, this is much better than the fade, which is a stupid play to run with dak.
elliot should be in bkfield, and dak should look to run if open.
Then just look for the open guy .
I prefer running once inside the 5, spread them out though no jumbo, and then run all 3 times.

 

[bayeslife]

It's sad when I see Dallas stack 4 wide right and Dez wide left alone and can easily tell he's getting a fade

 

[DandyDon52]

Sarcasm? We consistently torched teams with the fade in '13 and '14

yeah but Romo isnt playing, and dez isnt what he was.

You have to use plays that work with the guys you are playing.
Our strength is running, so why not run 3 times??