I agree with all your points nevertheless he will make it first ballot. Blame the Patriots for the two SB MVP awards every player that has gotten two is in the HOF first ballot. Yes a little wine does help with that feeling in your throat.
Not even Favre made first ballot. Neither did Kurt Warner.
Eli isn't eligible until no sooner than 2020 and those SB victories will be a mere gleam in someone's eye by then.
He isn't getting on on this current body of work I assure you.
It will help that he's a QB and it will help that he won two SB MVP's but he literally has zero other strong points to raise.
Warren Moon and Troy Aikman are the only two QBs in who played into 2000 that are in YET.
Eli will be behind 4-5 QBs of this era at the minimum. Rodgers, Brees, and of course his brother and Brady.
Brady and Peyton are only guaranteed 1st ballot guys tho Rodgers could ascend to that.
Big Ben is questionable but has a much stronger argument than Eli. Much more of the modern, rushing yardage and toughness QB.
Ben has won 67% of his games. Eli is well down the list at only 54%. Romo FWIW is 60%.
Brady is insane at over 75%. Peyton is 68%, Rodgers 67%.
Eli is by far lowest of these guys. Brees who had some dogs of teams is still at 57%.