WE have a real good success rate in rd 1, terrible on day 2 and good on day 3.
In the past we have found a couple of good backs in Pollard, Randle, Barber. These were more complement backs. Williams fit the offense very well, unless he breaks the bank, he is a player they should resign and look to have the right compliment for him, that could even be Blue.
We dont have a good success rate in round one. i dare you to not just make such a statement which is very easy but to show how you can even think that way.
Of course you have to define what you mean with "real good". Maybe your real good is my below average.
I already made a post some time ago regarding our draft success since 2016 which showed that we are not even to be considered medicore at drafting. Because i know some here still believe and parrot the narrative the Joneses are trying to establish since the Garrett days. Just that you know i will not again put in the work to show in detail why i come to this conclusion. So just in short:
A first round pick (a premium resource you spent) is considered a good pick if he is at least a first day starter. It is considered a great pick if he will be voted to the pro bowl more often than not and eventually makes the pro bowl. All that at the positionhe was drafted for. Those are just some demands, just to have a baseline to have a talk.
Now who did we draft that fits that?
25: Booker. He is a starter day one. He is average in pass pro but a good run blocker. He is a good draft pick from that standpoint.
But then RG is the least important position of the OL. Good scouting and good drafting teams are able to find good guards in the lower 2nd round or high 3rd. We had to spent a near blue chipper to be able to find a good guard (not even a great one).
That all together makes this draft pick a below average one.
24; Guyton: he was the second try to find a replacment for Tyron Smith at LT. Again with a premium pick. Guyton after two seasons is a
bad draft pick. He is not able to play LT to a degree where you say we are good there. He is at best an average player. And that is even without considering his injury problems.
He was known to be very raw coming out of college. He was a real risk. All his flaws he still has after two years were all known and big questionmarks in his college days.
23: Mazi Smith: complete bust. Bad player,
bad draft pick. Couldnt even beat out a medicore mercenary we signed in FA.
22: Tyler Smith: He was the first try to find a replavement for Tyron at LT who was essentially begging to have his job taken away from him. Comsidering all his injuries and his bad back. But Tyler wasnt able to beat him out until Tyron went down and had to be replaced. Still Tyler was moved to LG later on and a new LT had to be drafted in 24.
Tyler Smith is a very good LG. He has some issues in pass pro but is a great run blocker. But judging our premium draft pick we spent to find a LT the pick is a
bust.
21: Parsons: great player,
great pick.
I could nitpick here or there: not able to play a full game, not 100% into football, very low IQ, disapears in playoffs or big games.
But whatever, great pick anyways.
20: CD Lamb, very good player,
good pick.
I consider him a good pick even if we rafted him in a situation where we a) didnt need a WR, we were set there and had much bigger needs eleswhere and b) he wasnt a first day starter.
The good pick i handed put is because he developed into a very good #1 wr. He has some issues that to me denies the lable "elite".
19: - (amari cooper trade)
18: LVE: this is a hard one. Very good player but considering his known health issues, the way he played after his first stellar year and the reason his career came to an end (a thing that was known at the time we drafted him) it makes this pick a
bad one to me.
A very high risk pick that wasnt needed at all at that time. This was an ego pick what makes it even worse.
17: Tacco Charlton: bust. Bad player,
bad draft pick.
16: Zekke:very good player,
good draft pick.
the player was a very good one, but in 2016 the valur of RB already diminished a lot. You dont draft RB in the first 2 rounds and especially you dont spent a premium pick on them.
If the guy were picked in the 2nd round id consider this a great pick. But to spent a 4th overall on a back is just not good resourve management. Still i hand out a good for this pick. Just because he was a first day starter snd made several pro bowls. The latter compensates for the high value we gave up.
So in 10 years we were able to convert 9 first round choices into
- 1 great pick, 2 good ones
- 5 bad picks, 1average
To me that is not a really good success rate. To be able to convert only 3 premium picks from 9 possible into a success is bad tp say the least.and dont forget alö of those picks were in the upper half of the first round. We didnt pick in the low 20s. That makes this picture look even worse.
And i didnt even included our 2nd round failures which are worse.
No my friend we are not a good drafting team. In fact we are way bellow average at best. And if you dont deny the facts you will easily find one reason why this team is one of the worst in the NFL for at least the öast 20 years.
