CFZ Cowboys 3rd down conversions (offense and defense)

[Jake]

One thing that has to improve, no matter who plays QB, is the Cowboys conversion rate on 3rd down.

Offensively, the Cowboys are 30th in the NFL at converting on third down (30.2%). How does that compare to the top teams? Three teams are over 50%. Two are not surprising - Buffalo and Kansas City - while the third is surprising (Seattle). Nine other teams convert at over 40%.

Even during the three game winning streak, the Cowboys are only 24th in 3rd down conversion rate (34.2%). Fourteen teams have converted at 40% or better during that stretch, with Seattle being the only one over 50%. Go figure.

Defensively, the Cowboys are 10th best at stopping teams on 3rd down (33.3%). During the three game winning streak, they're 11th best despite actually having a better rate of only 32.6%. This is obviously good enough, but it's going to be harder to sustain if the offense doesn't get better at converting third downs. As a result of the low conversion rate, offensively, Dallas only possesses the ball 47.2% of the game. These extra snaps will catch up to the defense over 17 games.

Winning is always fun, but the way the Cowboys are doing it is tough to do over an entire season. With Gallup's return, and getting some continuity at left guard, hopefully the running game will improve and make the distance needed on third down lesser. Avoiding penalties on offense would help, too.

 

[G2]

It would great to not even get to 3rd down

 

[john van brocklin]

One thing that has to improve, no matter who plays QB, is the Cowboys conversion rate on 3rd down.

Offensively, the Cowboys are 30th in the NFL at converting on third down (30.2%). How does that compare to the top teams? Three teams are over 50%. Two are not surprising - Buffalo and Kansas City - while the third is surprising (Seattle). Nine other teams convert at over 40%.

Even during the three game winning streak, the Cowboys are only 24th in 3rd down conversion rate (34.2%). Fourteen teams have converted at 40% or better during that stretch, with Seattle being the only one over 50%. Go figure.

Defensively, the Cowboys are 10th best at stopping teams on 3rd down (33.3%). During the three game winning streak, they're 11th best despite actually having a better rate of only 32.6%. This is obviously good enough, but it's going to be harder to sustain if the offense doesn't get better at converting third downs. As a result of the low conversion rate, offensively, Dallas only possesses the ball 47.2% of the game. These extra snaps will catch up to the defense over 17 games.

Winning is always fun, but the way the Cowboys are doing it is tough to do over an entire season. With Gallup's return, and getting some continuity at left guard, hopefully the running game will improve and make the distance needed on third down lesser. Avoiding penalties on offense would help, too.

Improvement in the penalty dept. is key.
This team is not good enough offensively to overcome 3rd and long.

 

[Runwildboys]

It would great to not even get to 3rd down

I think that needs to be figured into the stats, if it isn't somehow already. I don't know if that would improve our standings or make them even worse.

 

[Jake]

It would great to not even get to 3rd down

Tried to dig into that and here's what I found: Buffalo leads the NFL in first downs per play, no surprise, but Atlanta is second. The Falcons have the fewest third downs per game in the NFL, which could be bad (as in, you don't have the ball) but given their first downs per play it's good in their case.

The Cowboys are 27th in first downs per play, but 16th during the three game winning streak. They're 11th worst in third downs per game, not great given they only have the ball 47.2% of the time, but slightly better (14th worst) during the winning streak.

Bottom line is there has been some improvement, but it still has to get better. Otherwise, holding opponents to 17 points or less will be the only way Dallas can win.

 

[JD_KaPow]

I think that needs to be figured into the stats, if it isn't somehow already. I don't know if that would improve our standings or make them even worse.

That's what drive stats are for.

The Cowboys are 26th in yards per drive, 23rd in plays per drive and 22nd in points per drive. The saving grace is that they're second (in the good way) in turnovers per drive. Combine those things and you understand why they're 3rd-highest in punts per drive.

So it's not a good offense they're running out there, but it's a careful offense.

 

[Runwildboys]

That's what drive stats are for.

The Cowboys are 26th in yards per drive, 23rd in plays per drive and 22nd in points per drive. The saving grace is that they're second (in the good way) in turnovers per drive. Combine those things and you understand why they're 3rd-highest in punts per drive.

So it's not a good offense they're running out there, but it's a careful offense.

Does that tell us if say, we have fewer 3rd down conversions because we have more 2nd down conversions?

 

[Nexx]

seems like they are playing rope a dope on offense. they're almost playing the offense, defensively in a weird sort of way. that's until they go down or the other team gains momentum. The offense and Rush seem to have a knack of dialing it up when necessary but only when its necessary.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Does that tell us if say, we have fewer 3rd down conversions because we have more 2nd down conversions?

It gives some indication of how well they sustain drives. If you have a low third-down conversion rate but you're good at sustaining drives, you must be converting a lot of 1st- and 2nd-downs instead. Of course, the Cowboys aren't great at sustaining drives and aren't great on 3rd down, so it's a bit ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. You can dig into the conversion rates at Stathead but I'm too lazy right now.

 

[xwalker]

One thing that has to improve, no matter who plays QB, is the Cowboys conversion rate on 3rd down.

Offensively, the Cowboys are 30th in the NFL at converting on third down (30.2%). How does that compare to the top teams? Three teams are over 50%. Two are not surprising - Buffalo and Kansas City - while the third is surprising (Seattle). Nine other teams convert at over 40%.

Even during the three game winning streak, the Cowboys are only 24th in 3rd down conversion rate (34.2%). Fourteen teams have converted at 40% or better during that stretch, with Seattle being the only one over 50%. Go figure.

Defensively, the Cowboys are 10th best at stopping teams on 3rd down (33.3%). During the three game winning streak, they're 11th best despite actually having a better rate of only 32.6%. This is obviously good enough, but it's going to be harder to sustain if the offense doesn't get better at converting third downs. As a result of the low conversion rate, offensively, Dallas only possesses the ball 47.2% of the game. These extra snaps will catch up to the defense over 17 games.

Winning is always fun, but the way the Cowboys are doing it is tough to do over an entire season. With Gallup's return, and getting some continuity at left guard, hopefully the running game will improve and make the distance needed on third down lesser. Avoiding penalties on offense would help, too.

But they need to sign Cooper Rush to a new contract...I heard it here...

 

[fivetwos]

That's what drive stats are for.

The Cowboys are 26th in yards per drive, 23rd in plays per drive and 22nd in points per drive. The saving grace is that they're second (in the good way) in turnovers per drive. Combine those things and you understand why they're 3rd-highest in punts per drive.

So it's not a good offense they're running out there, but it's a careful offense.

Apparently most of our offensive rankings are low as of now, which surprises since they are winning.

Really though, we have been playing a backup and how upset can anyone be with winning every one of them thus far?

With the small sample size, being this early, those rankings can improve very quickly…..and also mean exactly what they do right now….absolutely nothing.

I guess the OP within the OP is if it’s sustainable. Of course it isn’t, but what else are we supposed to do for the time being? Would be one thing if we were able to run our best out there but not the case.

 

[JD_KaPow]

Apparently most of our offensive rankings are low as of now, which surprises since they are winning.

Why is it surprising? The defense is giving up only one TD per game, and it's not like Dallas is blowing teams out. Dallas is tied for 28th in the league in points scored. They're winning because they're 3rd in the league in points allowed. Well, that and because they're playing the Giants and Commanders instead of the Bills and Chiefs.

Now to be fair, one thing the offense is doing right, and it's a big thing, is not turning the ball over. That right there makes them better than 28th, but you can't call them good at this point.

 

[conner01]

Tried to dig into that and here's what I found: Buffalo leads the NFL in first downs per play, no surprise, but Atlanta is second. The Falcons have the fewest third downs per game in the NFL, which could be bad (as in, you don't have the ball) but given their first downs per play it's good in their case.

The Cowboys are 27th in first downs per play, but 16th during the three game winning streak. They're 11th worst in third downs per game, not great given they only have the ball 47.2% of the time, but slightly better (14th worst) during the winning streak.

Bottom line is there has been some improvement, but it still has to get better. Otherwise, holding opponents to 17 points or less will be the only way Dallas can win.

The sample size is still relatively small and one game can skew the numbers
As it shows in 3 games it’s avg but over the 4 games it’s poor
The halfway point will be a more telling time

 

[conner01]

Why is it surprising? The defense is giving up only one TD per game, and it's not like Dallas is blowing teams out. Dallas is tied for 28th in the league in points scored. They're winning because they're 3rd in the league in points allowed. Well, that and because they're playing the Giants and Commanders instead of the Bills and Chiefs.

Now to be fair, one thing the offense is doing right, and it's a big thing, is not turning the ball over. That right there makes them better than 28th, but you can't call them good at this point.

Not turning it over while at the same time you are taking it away makes up for a lot of other weaknesses
Not shooting yourself in the foot with penalties helps improve 3rd down rate because it leaves you an easier 3rd down
Little things mean a lot

 

[Vtwin]

I would be curious to see how the offense ranks in 3rd down conversions based on the last three games. I have no idea if it would change much but like Conner pointed out, that one terrible performance could significant affect things given the small sample size.

 

[fivetwos]

Why is it surprising? The defense is giving up only one TD per game, and it's not like Dallas is blowing teams out. Dallas is tied for 28th in the league in points scored. They're winning because they're 3rd in the league in points allowed. Well, that and because they're playing the Giants and Commanders instead of the Bills and Chiefs.

Now to be fair, one thing the offense is doing right, and it's a big thing, is not turning the ball over. That right there makes them better than 28th, but you can't call them good at this point.

All true, just seems that low rankings would be associated with losing.

Man it just doesn’t seem as though they are as inept offensively as the numbers show. One of those things.

I made a remark recently about wanting wins over rankings, which I stand by, but have also since realized that it isn’t sustainable, which was the OP.

That all said, the more talented Prescott running the more balanced/conservative offensive game plan may work out well if used.

One thing no one is ever going to convince me other wise…..trying to win games featuring Prescott as a pocket passer won’t add up.

 

[CowboysFaninHouston]

One thing that has to improve, no matter who plays QB, is the Cowboys conversion rate on 3rd down.

Offensively, the Cowboys are 30th in the NFL at converting on third down (30.2%). How does that compare to the top teams? Three teams are over 50%. Two are not surprising - Buffalo and Kansas City - while the third is surprising (Seattle). Nine other teams convert at over 40%.

Even during the three game winning streak, the Cowboys are only 24th in 3rd down conversion rate (34.2%). Fourteen teams have converted at 40% or better during that stretch, with Seattle being the only one over 50%. Go figure.

Defensively, the Cowboys are 10th best at stopping teams on 3rd down (33.3%). During the three game winning streak, they're 11th best despite actually having a better rate of only 32.6%. This is obviously good enough, but it's going to be harder to sustain if the offense doesn't get better at converting third downs. As a result of the low conversion rate, offensively, Dallas only possesses the ball 47.2% of the game. These extra snaps will catch up to the defense over 17 games.

Winning is always fun, but the way the Cowboys are doing it is tough to do over an entire season. With Gallup's return, and getting some continuity at left guard, hopefully the running game will improve and make the distance needed on third down lesser. Avoiding penalties on offense would help, too.

Great post. For now offense can be less than perfect be ause defense is good and gets the other team off the field and back to our offense for another chance.