Idgit;5093559 said:
I'm not a big believer in players being 'injury prone' unless and until I see the same type of recurring injuries. Miles' hamstrings, for example, are probably a chronic problem. Otherwise, it's really tough distinguishing 'prone' from 'unlucky.'
The good side of signing a player who's struggled to stay healthy is that you should get a commensurate discount on the deal. I'd sign Lee in a heartbeat at the right number, and that right number should be what you'd pay one of the top 3 interior linebackers in the league right now, with an adjustment based on his inability to stay completely healthy. If Lee want's to bet on his health for 16 games this season, let him do it and sign him afterward to a slightly better AAV deal.
Either way, he's been our defensive leader the last two seasons, and he's just entering his prime. No way do you let him get out of Dallas.
But will we get a discount? How do you decide on his fair value? Do you base it on his production when he is healthy? Do you base it on his production per season? It is hard to say for a player like him and even though he is entering his 4th season he is 27 and not 25 as many players in a similar situation might be who entered college at 18 and left after 3 years for the NFL.
The question about his injury being recurrent or not is an important one but noe one that can be easily answered. From what I understand he has torn an MCL, an ACL, a wrist ligament in 2011 and now a toe tendon in 2012. The question I have is whether he has the connective tissue strength to play the game. We know some players seem to be incredibly injury resistant (see Emmitt Smith) whereas others seem to be injured all the time (Felix Jones). Felix's injuries were never recurrent - it went hamstring, then toe, then knee, then shoulder. But after his shoulder surgery in 2011 he suddenly didn't look like the same player at all in 2012.
These are all important questions to ask when deciding on Lee's deal. I don't mind any deal in the $8M/yr range so long as the guaranteed component isn't onerous. Maybe $8M. I don't want to commit more guaranteed money than that to a player that seems to always be tearing something up.
BTW, I think he missed a fair bit of time as a rookie from a quad contusion or strain and that is partly why he played so little in the first half of his first year in the league so there was some injury component there too.
I love the player but I just don't want to give him a ton of guaranteed money and end up in cap hell. Miles Austin was a guy who came close to breaking out in his 3rd year but was injured a lot.
For whatever reason, I'd be much happier giving the money to Bruce Carter because I think his injury history is much less concerning.
There is only so much that we know about the human body. Everyone's tissues are of slightly different strength. At one end of the spectrum are guys with Ehler Danlos syndrome who have scary weak tissue that tears easily. Then there is hypermobility syndrome where we see people that are kind of bendy or double-jointed but haven't quite figured out why their tissue is weak but they get injured and hurt a lot. Then there is normal people who live normal lives without messing up their bodies too much during their young adult lives (except maybe their discs in their spine but that is a different issue). Then there are those rare people who can take the impact of pro level football without shredding up their bodies. Does it not stand to reason there is a spectrum in pro football players of tissue strength that may account for some of the longevity they had on the field compared to their injured brethren?
I don't put much weight on one injury in this sport. I don't even put much weight on two. But when you have 4 of them in a short period of time I begin to wonder if you're going to stand the test of time.
I do hope the team has investigated the numbers on this pattern of injury recurrence before signing on the dotted line but I'm not sure how statistically oriented Jerry and Stephen are. Garrett may be about football but not necessarily about injuries.
Anyhow, I hope Lee plays many years without further injury but I wouldn't give him a huge amount of guaranteed money unless he plays out this year healthy and even then I would only do it begrudgingly because he has special leadership skills and is a turnover machine.
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