Cowboys Draft Success

Galian Beast

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Was reading an article on BTB, and they pointed out that we had all of our first round draft picks since 2010, and all of them were starters. Only 5 other teams in the NFL can say that they have all their first round draft picks since 2010 (not sure whether they are all starters though). With the exception of Claiborne and Byron Jones, all of our first rounders since 2010 have actually been to the pro bowl, and I think Ezekiel Elliott is actually the most likely player to hit the pro bowl (from the onset). I also don't want to write-off Jones depending on how quickly he can grow into that position.

What's interesting is the article soured on our 2nd round draft picks, and I thought this was interesting. Obviously, the general consensus is that we haven't done well in the second round. My takeaway, however, is a bit different. We've taken risks in the 2nd round that haven't necessarily paid off yet, but it might be too early to write these off just yet.

2nd round draft picks since 2010
Sean Lee - Pro Bowler, Captain on Defense, though there are injury concerns, he is the best player on our defense (A-)

Bruce Carter - Didn't pan out, but did play well for us, especially in 2014. No longer with the team.(C)

2012- No 2nd round draft pick due to the Claiborne trade. I'll concede this one because even if Claiborne turns into a player, you didn't get that value while he was on his rookie contract. He wasn't worth the 2nd rounder. (F)

Gavin Escobar - This is probably where you find the most fault. This experiment has happened time and time again, where the Cowboys have invested way too much in a position that they aren't willing to fully utilize. The result is this player ending up 3rd string, and might have been 4th-string if Han a 6th round player was healthy. Makes me furious to know that some team will utilize him properly. (D-)


DeMarcus Lawrence - This is where I start to feel the narrative needs to change. He was injured his rookie year but came on strong in the playoffs. In 2015 he really started to establish himself as a potentially dominant player. If it weren't for this 4 game suspension, I think most people would probably call this a B or B+ draft pick, and ultimately if it is only a 4 game suspension, that really shouldn't be enough to significantly diminish the draft pick. If Lawrence stays out of trouble and plays to potential, I still say trading up was the right thing to do to get him. While he isn't considered a starter right now because of the suspension he certainly will be upon his return. (B/B+)

Randy Gregory - Randy Gregory is more problematic than Lawrence. There is less reason to believe that he will be able to stay out of trouble. That being said, the ceiling on Gregory is actually higher than Lawrence's. He is still just in his sophomore season, and missing camp and being suspended probably puts a damper on his prospects for this year, but this risk isn't yet a write-off. If he can stay out of trouble, there is good reason to believe he would or could become a starter. (INC)

Jaylon Smith - Like Randy Gregory, Smith was a risk, but one of a different nature. The reward for drafting Jaylon Smith is potentially huge for this defense. If Jaylon Smith can return and be the player he once was, there is good enough reason to believe he could be a top linebacker in the NFL. A perennial pro bowl caliber player. That is a huge factor for a defense in desperate need of talent after receiving very minimal resources through the draft. (INC)

The success of our second round drafting to me is still up in the air. Could it and is it even very likely that we may have screwed things up on these picks, at least some of them? Absolutely. But we opened this door and now we'll have to walk through it. Out of six players drafted, I would say that we still have the potential for four pro bowl caliber players. That's really good for the second round. It could be and probably should be argued that we should have diversified our risk a lot more. All of our high risk players on defense. We have to injury risks in the linebacker corps, and we have two players with issues with drug use on the defensive line.

As much as I wanted Ezekiel Elliott and think that he was a much better pick than Joey Bosa or Jalen Ramsey, this team needs to start drafting defensive players in the first round. They probably need to do it for a few consecutive years at this point.
 

Galian Beast

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The entire 2017 draft should be dedicated solely to defense.

Additionally I would add that we should not draft any projects or injured players.

I think the problem with that is that there are only so many roster spots. You can get a player who is less talented but has fewer warts on them.

You take risks on players who could be star players because the other end of that is getting players who barely make the starting roster or don't make the roster at all.

I see your point and it has merit to it. I think we dedicated this draft largely to defense. Outside of Elliott, it was largely a defensive draft. We had 9 draft picks with 5 going on defense and 4 on offense. Looking closer to that however, two of the picks on offense came at the end of our selections.

You take some of those riskier players in round 2 and 3 and you take some of those projects in rounds 3, 4, and 5.
 

Jeffkills

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Can't gamble our second rounders anymore until we resolve the D..

Just draft safe, solid D starters exclusively before we waste our O's potential...

Any more 2nd RD busts are unacceptable for the next few years..
 

Stash

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Was reading an article on BTB, and they pointed out that we had all of our first round draft picks since 2010, and all of them were starters. Only 5 other teams in the NFL can say that they have all their first round draft picks since 2010 (not sure whether they are all starters though). With the exception of Claiborne and Byron Jones, all of our first rounders since 2010 have actually been to the pro bowl, and I think Ezekiel Elliott is actually the most likely player to hit the pro bowl (from the onset). I also don't want to write-off Jones depending on how quickly he can grow into that position.

What's interesting is the article soured on our 2nd round draft picks, and I thought this was interesting. Obviously, the general consensus is that we haven't done well in the second round. My takeaway, however, is a bit different. We've taken risks in the 2nd round that haven't necessarily paid off yet, but it might be too early to write these off just yet.

2nd round draft picks since 2010
Sean Lee - Pro Bowler, Captain on Defense, though there are injury concerns, he is the best player on our defense (A-)

Bruce Carter - Didn't pan out, but did play well for us, especially in 2014. No longer with the team.(C)

2012- No 2nd round draft pick due to the Claiborne trade. I'll concede this one because even if Claiborne turns into a player, you didn't get that value while he was on his rookie contract. He wasn't worth the 2nd rounder. (F)

Gavin Escobar - This is probably where you find the most fault. This experiment has happened time and time again, where the Cowboys have invested way too much in a position that they aren't willing to fully utilize. The result is this player ending up 3rd string, and might have been 4th-string if Han a 6th round player was healthy. Makes me furious to know that some team will utilize him properly. (D-)


DeMarcus Lawrence - This is where I start to feel the narrative needs to change. He was injured his rookie year but came on strong in the playoffs. In 2015 he really started to establish himself as a potentially dominant player. If it weren't for this 4 game suspension, I think most people would probably call this a B or B+ draft pick, and ultimately if it is only a 4 game suspension, that really shouldn't be enough to significantly diminish the draft pick. If Lawrence stays out of trouble and plays to potential, I still say trading up was the right thing to do to get him. While he isn't considered a starter right now because of the suspension he certainly will be upon his return. (B/B+)

Randy Gregory - Randy Gregory is more problematic than Lawrence. There is less reason to believe that he will be able to stay out of trouble. That being said, the ceiling on Gregory is actually higher than Lawrence's. He is still just in his sophomore season, and missing camp and being suspended probably puts a damper on his prospects for this year, but this risk isn't yet a write-off. If he can stay out of trouble, there is good reason to believe he would or could become a starter. (INC)

Jaylon Smith - Like Randy Gregory, Smith was a risk, but one of a different nature. The reward for drafting Jaylon Smith is potentially huge for this defense. If Jaylon Smith can return and be the player he once was, there is good enough reason to believe he could be a top linebacker in the NFL. A perennial pro bowl caliber player. That is a huge factor for a defense in desperate need of talent after receiving very minimal resources through the draft. (INC)

The success of our second round drafting to me is still up in the air. Could it and is it even very likely that we may have screwed things up on these picks, at least some of them? Absolutely. But we opened this door and now we'll have to walk through it. Out of six players drafted, I would say that we still have the potential for four pro bowl caliber players. That's really good for the second round. It could be and probably should be argued that we should have diversified our risk a lot more. All of our high risk players on defense. We have to injury risks in the linebacker corps, and we have two players with issues with drug use on the defensive line.

As much as I wanted Ezekiel Elliott and think that he was a much better pick than Joey Bosa or Jalen Ramsey, this team needs to start drafting defensive players in the first round. They probably need to do it for a few consecutive years at this point.

I think you're giving the team a pass out of fan optimism. Every bit as good as the 1st round picks are, the 2nd round picks are bad.

You simply can't have that many draft resources contributing absolutely nothing.

As good as Sean Lee is when heathy, his poor record of health has to factor in. Therefore, there's no way I can see the pick being an A-

All of these players fail this team in the availability department, for whatever individual reasons. That lack of availability needs to be factored into any grade.

And while you choose to give the Randy Gregory pick an incomplete, I think that's totally off base. Right now, the grade is an F until such time that the player can prove otherwise. 31 other teams knew enough to stay away, and 1 didn't. And as of today, 31 teams looks right and 1 looks wrong.

The reckless indulgences that have been made with draft capital as valuable as a second round pick have seriously undermined and hurt this team, and they need to stop.
 

TheMarathonContinues

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Not to excuse the Cowboys but I'm willing to bet that around the league everyone is terrible at drafting in the second round.......seems like a lot of those guys are guys who should've been first rounders but end up being busts.
 

Stash

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Not to excuse the Cowboys but I'm willing to bet that around the league everyone is terrible at drafting in the second round.......seems like a lot of those guys are guys who should've been first rounders but end up being busts.

You'll have to pull up actual stats to support what you're trying to claim. Otherwise, it's just an unsubstantiated, unsupported attempt at making excuses.
 

yimyammer

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Seems to me you can chalk up the defense deficiencies to these 2nd round gambles.

I suspect if they hadn't traded the pick to move up and grab Morris and then stayed put using his first round pick and the 2nd they traded and for lack of a better work "bunted" with "safe" picks on defense with the 2nd rounders in the other years, the defense would be much better.

I'm not a fan of gambling with second round picks but it strikes me as a compromise the powers that be made so jeri can get his gamble on because wildcat gotta wildcat.

I do agree that its not time to throw these lottery tickets away just yet, they still may pay off.
 

Stash

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Seems to me you can chalk up the defense deficiencies to these 2nd round gambles.

I suspect if they hadn't traded the pick to move up and grab Morris and then stayed put using his first round pick and the 2nd they traded and for lack of a better work "bunted" with "safe" picks on defense with the 2nd rounders in the other years, the defense would be much better.

I'm not a fan of gambling with second round picks but it strikes me as a compromise the powers that be made so jeri can get his gamble on because wildcat gotta wildcat.

I do agree with you though, its not time to throw these lottery tickets away just yet, they still may pay off.

I definitely see the same thing you do as far as the 2nd round looking like 'Jerry's playground'. It can and never will be proven and people can say and think what they want all day, but given the repeated risks and trades made with those second round picks, that's the conclusion that this fan comes to as well.

Much like he gambles with problem child free agents in the hopes of hitting it big on the cheap, I see a similar pattern of reckless behavior being made with those 2nd round draft picks, with similar disappointing results. Adding up both, and it's easy to see why this team is in the uncomfortable position that they're in at far too many spots.
 

CATCH17

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The entire 2017 draft should be dedicated solely to defense.

Additionally I would add that we should not draft any projects or injured players.

I think offensive Tackle and WR could potentially be positions of need.

Both don't need to be 1st rounders.

I would like that FSU DE or Alabama corner.
 

yimyammer

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I definitely see the same thing you do as far as the 2nd round looking like 'Jerry's playground'. It can and never will be proven and people can say and think what they want all day, but given the repeated risks and trades made with those second round picks, that's the conclusion that this fan comes to as well.

Much like he gambles with problem child free agents in the hopes of hitting it big on the cheap, I see a similar pattern of reckless behavior being made with those 2nd round draft picks, with similar disappointing results. Adding up both, and it's easy to see why this team is in the uncomfortable position that they're in at far too many spots.

Agreed, I am admittedly speculating but it doesn't seem too outrageous of a conclusion to draw.

looking at the last 7 years of 2nd round draft picks:

2016 pick #34 - Jaylon Smith (injured, cant play..maybe ever!)
2015 pick #60 - Randy Gregory (suspended and in drug rehab for at least 4 games)
2014 picks #47 & 78 (to move up to #34) - Demarcus Lawrence (currently suspended and will miss 4 games)
2013 #47 - Gavin Escobar (coming off injury, career: 26 recs, 303 yards, 7 TDs)
2012 picks #14 and 45 - Morris Claiborne (on a one year deal, been a massive disappointment so far given the cost)
2011 pick #40 - Bruce Carter (off the team since the end of 2014)
2010 picks #59 & #125 - Sean Lee (the best of all the players selected in this round but health is always a concern and he is starting the year with an unknown knee issue)

So over the last 7 years, the Cowboys have used ten draft picks (9 of them utilized on defense) and when they open against the giants, they will only have 2: Sean Lee (How bad is his knee injury? Are the Cowboys down playing it and we're about to get bad news?) and Morris Claiborne available to play on defense.

I dont know how decisions are being made in that building but it sure looks like they decided to give the 2nd round to jeri and let him gamble it up as a compromise to trying to use the other picks on safer, more solid selections. Pure speculation I know, but I'm not so sure its that far from the truth.

Like you, It appears to me this is an example of the jeri jones effect.
 

DogFace

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The Escobar pick has most wondering why we did it.

Op point about how we over invest then fail to even try to utilize the position is puzzling.
 

viman96

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A few years ago the concern was they gambled too much with the 4th rd pick and now it is the 2nd rd pick.
 

DFWJC

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Thanks for the OP.
Yes, the 1st rounders have been good. Barring the double whammy fail of the Claiborne pick (1st and 2nd rounders) they've been great.

I disagree on the 2nd rounders overall.
Good to great players were there for taking in most of those cases.
So at that high in the draft, it's not just the players taken, but the opportunity cost of what was passed up or traded away at that pick. And there were Pro Bowlers all over the place available.
 
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Broges74

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Was reading an article on BTB, and they pointed out that we had all of our first round draft picks since 2010, and all of them were starters. Only 5 other teams in the NFL can say that they have all their first round draft picks since 2010 (not sure whether they are all starters though). With the exception of Claiborne and Byron Jones, all of our first rounders since 2010 have actually been to the pro bowl, and I think Ezekiel Elliott is actually the most likely player to hit the pro bowl (from the onset). I also don't want to write-off Jones depending on how quickly he can grow into that position.

What's interesting is the article soured on our 2nd round draft picks, and I thought this was interesting. Obviously, the general consensus is that we haven't done well in the second round. My takeaway, however, is a bit different. We've taken risks in the 2nd round that haven't necessarily paid off yet, but it might be too early to write these off just yet.

2nd round draft picks since 2010
Sean Lee - Pro Bowler, Captain on Defense, though there are injury concerns, he is the best player on our defense (A-)

Bruce Carter - Didn't pan out, but did play well for us, especially in 2014. No longer with the team.(C)

2012- No 2nd round draft pick due to the Claiborne trade. I'll concede this one because even if Claiborne turns into a player, you didn't get that value while he was on his rookie contract. He wasn't worth the 2nd rounder. (F)

Gavin Escobar - This is probably where you find the most fault. This experiment has happened time and time again, where the Cowboys have invested way too much in a position that they aren't willing to fully utilize. The result is this player ending up 3rd string, and might have been 4th-string if Han a 6th round player was healthy. Makes me furious to know that some team will utilize him properly. (D-)


DeMarcus Lawrence - This is where I start to feel the narrative needs to change. He was injured his rookie year but came on strong in the playoffs. In 2015 he really started to establish himself as a potentially dominant player. If it weren't for this 4 game suspension, I think most people would probably call this a B or B+ draft pick, and ultimately if it is only a 4 game suspension, that really shouldn't be enough to significantly diminish the draft pick. If Lawrence stays out of trouble and plays to potential, I still say trading up was the right thing to do to get him. While he isn't considered a starter right now because of the suspension he certainly will be upon his return. (B/B+)

Randy Gregory - Randy Gregory is more problematic than Lawrence. There is less reason to believe that he will be able to stay out of trouble. That being said, the ceiling on Gregory is actually higher than Lawrence's. He is still just in his sophomore season, and missing camp and being suspended probably puts a damper on his prospects for this year, but this risk isn't yet a write-off. If he can stay out of trouble, there is good reason to believe he would or could become a starter. (INC)

Jaylon Smith - Like Randy Gregory, Smith was a risk, but one of a different nature. The reward for drafting Jaylon Smith is potentially huge for this defense. If Jaylon Smith can return and be the player he once was, there is good enough reason to believe he could be a top linebacker in the NFL. A perennial pro bowl caliber player. That is a huge factor for a defense in desperate need of talent after receiving very minimal resources through the draft. (INC)

The success of our second round drafting to me is still up in the air. Could it and is it even very likely that we may have screwed things up on these picks, at least some of them? Absolutely. But we opened this door and now we'll have to walk through it. Out of six players drafted, I would say that we still have the potential for four pro bowl caliber players. That's really good for the second round. It could be and probably should be argued that we should have diversified our risk a lot more. All of our high risk players on defense. We have to injury risks in the linebacker corps, and we have two players with issues with drug use on the defensive line.

As much as I wanted Ezekiel Elliott and think that he was a much better pick than Joey Bosa or Jalen Ramsey, this team needs to start drafting defensive players in the first round. They probably need to do it for a few consecutive years at this point.
I was all for Ramsey and Henry in the 2nd. I saw enough from Derrick to think he could be a star behind this line and may replace Murray sooner rather than later.
 

yimyammer

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I was all for Ramsey and Henry in the 2nd. I saw enough from Derrick to think he could be a star behind this line and may replace Murray sooner rather than later.

that was my take as well. Seemed a more prudent use of resources but I'm admittedly clueless when it comes to talent evaluation.
 

Stash

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Agreed, I am admittedly speculating but it doesn't seem too outrageous of a conclusion to draw.

looking at the last 7 years of 2nd round draft picks:

2016 pick #34 - Jaylon Smith (injured, cant play..maybe ever!)
2015 pick #60 - Randy Gregory (suspended and in drug rehab for at least 4 games)
2014 picks #47 & 78 (to move up to #34) - Demarcus Lawrence (currently suspended and will miss 4 games)
2013 #47 - Gavin Escobar (coming off injury, career: 26 recs, 303 yards, 7 TDs)
2012 picks #14 and 45 - Morris Claiborne (on a one year deal, been a massive disappointment so far given the cost)
2011 pick #40 - Bruce Carter (off the team since the end of 2014)
2010 picks #59 & #125 - Sean Lee (the best of all the players selected in this round but health is always a concern and he is starting the year with an unknown knee issue)

So over the last 7 years, the Cowboys have used ten draft picks (9 of them utilized on defense) and when they open against the giants, they will only have 2: Sean Lee (How bad is his knee injury? Are the Cowboys down playing it and we're about to get bad news?) and Morris Claiborne available to play on defense.

I dont know how decisions are being made in that building but it sure looks like they decided to give the 2nd round to jeri and let him gamble it up as a compromise to trying to use the other picks on safer, more solid selections. Pure speculation I know, but I'm not so sure its that far from the truth.

Like you, It appears to me this is an example of the jeri jones effect.

However people want to attribute it, there's a clear pattern of excessive risks being taken with that valuable draft commodity.

And we can go back much further with second rounders continually wasted on a two-TE offense that has never materialized and never come close to a return on the investments made.

Simply put, there needs to be more respect, and better judgments made for such a valuable draft commodity.
 
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