Fla Cowpoke;5036773 said:
Hoof,
I think the issue is the guaranteed money...he is right up there with the highest guarantees ever. The backend money isn't that important. The agent's job is to get him the most he possibly can up front.
I disagree about the backend not being important. If this is your last chance at cashing in, the longer you can play the more you make. He's 33 here soon. If he plays even 3 years, the odds of getting a big contract again are almost non-existant unless he plays out of his mind well, in which case he's staying on the team for those later years.
I guess I look at it like this. Make $55M or however much over 3 years, or make $75M over 5 years. The longer he is on the team, the more money he makes. If his contract is written to where his performance cannot match his cap hit down the road, his odds of staying on the team are considerably less than what they would be if his cap hit was more reasonable.
You are assuming we restructure him more than once...not necessarily sure we need to do that. I am guessing we redo next yearin similar fashion to most of the recent ones.
Well, yeah.
That's what's been rumored and they've done it every year for the last 3 years. Furthermore, I don't see any way the team will just take a $25M cap hit (actually it would be about $27.6M after the first restructure) on just Romo. I don't think they can.
If you look at Spotrac, Dallas has like $129M committed to the 2015 cap right now and that's only with 20 players currently under contract. Granted that has players who may or may not be with the team and who can be restructured, yet again, but it also doesn't include a handful of big names.
Free Agents 2014:
Free Agents 2015:
- Dez Bryant
- Tyron Smith
- Bruce Carter
- DeMarco Murray
That list also doesn't include Spencer who if signed will assuredly be at a much bigger cap number going into his 3rd year of the contract than he foreseeably be at during this first year where people are suggesting a new contract will create space.
If they restructure once, they'll almost going to have to do it again because it will not only increase Romo's cap number to $28M but because they have to get the younger players re-signed.
For 2014 they give him 12m in restructure bonus, his cap hit would be 1.5m salary, 5m SB, 3,273 misc bonus and 2m restructure bonus for about 11.7m hit compared to the almost 22m currently listed.
It looks like you're dividing that $12M by 6 years and I'm pretty sure you can only prorate a bonus over 5 years. I made the same mistake a while back and someone corrected me on it. Small difference but just to make sure we're on the same page here.
For 2015, they may just bite the bullet and take a full cap hit of like 27m. I know it sounds crazy but they can time it to where they are taking a huge hit for him but it be a light year for hits from some of the other big contract guys.
I can't see any way they bite the bullet in that year willingly. If they're going to do that they should bite the bullet next year. At least some of the increase from his current cap number will be recouped by the cap penalty coming off.
But, the problem becomes that you ideally would sign your young guys prior to them hitting the market so they're probably going to need as much space as possible starting next offseason.
For 2016 they 15.135 in hit right now, add $2m from the 2014 restructure and it is $17.135m hit. At that point, all the guaranteed money has been paid. ON the first fours of this deal, there is $65m in the first 4 years of salary plus the signing bonus, a little over an average of 16m for the 4. For the first two years of the deal they are way under the average, the third year they are way over and the last year slightly over.
I think this is a problem that teams have to get beyond. Good QBs cost money. Dallas is not the only team guilty of this because Flacco's deal has insane cap hits in year 4 and 5. I think teams need to just face facts and realize that if you want good QB play you have to take the hit. Trying to get a bargain for two years only puts your QB in a position where he has to up his game on the backend of the deal when he's older and less likely to be as good as he is now. Little OT but whatever.
In 2017, he currently counts for 19m but it would be 21m if we do the 2014 restructure. If cut at that point he would have one year of SB of 5m left, and three years of 6m restructure bonus left to eat. If taken that year, saves 10m off the cap with 11m dead. If a June 1st cut, saves 12m in 2017 with 9m dead, then saves 19.5m with $2m dead in 2018.
A lot of number crunching, but I really think it will end up being four years where we take one really big hit whenever it works best with the rest of our contracts.
I disagree in that you are actually "saving" anything by cutting him. Maybe in the first year if his play declines significantly but any time you have dead money extending beyond that first year, there is no savings, just dead money. He's off the team and you have to replace a QB with someone other than the Quincy Carter's, Interceptaverde's, and Anthony Wright's. If you're lucky you strike gold in the draft and are able to develop a guy, if you're not luck you have to start picking up scraps around the league and the cost to replace the guy is likely not much less than it would have been to simply keep him. Unless Romo completely goes south, it's not like you can just readily replace him with whatever cap "savings" there might be.
Looking at the numbers, I think Dallas would be best served to NOT restructure 2014 and instead restructure 2015. Assuming his base salary would be reduced to $1.5M for each season it is restructured, we get this.
Restructure Only 2014 - Cap Hits:
- 2013: $11.81M
- 2014: $12.17M
- 2015: $27.15M
- 2016: $17.53M
- 2017: $21.40M (Dead If Cut: $9.8M)
- 2018: $21.90M (Dead If Cut: $2.4M)
Restructure Only 2015 - Cap Hits:
- 2013: $11.81M
- 2014: $21.77M
- 2015: $12.87M
- 2016: $18.23M
- 2017: $22.10M (Dead If Cut: $14.3M)
- 2018: $22.60M (Dead If Cut: $6.2M)
When you look at a 2014 restructure, I don't see any way the team can handle that $27.15M cap hit in 2015. That's double the total cap amount he took up for 2013 and 2014.
Restructuring 2015 gives the team a more reasonable approach. They get cap relief now, take a big jump to $21.77M but that difference will be freed up with the return of the $5M cap penalty, Newman finally falling off the books and Sensabaugh falling off the books. This also gives them cap relief in the middle of the contract by converting the single biggest base salary to bonus. When you look at 2016's base, it's the 2nd lowest of the entire contract. The team can break up the guaranteed money however they want so even by waiting a year to drop the biggest base they could ultimately attribute more to 2016 than the other years and bring down his cap figure for 2017 and 2018 if he's still playing at a high level.
If you add up those 4 years of cap hits, ultimately Dallas takes $4.5M less in cap hits for his contract over that span by restructuring a year later but they also take that difference down the road and have it looming over as dead money in the meantime.
Restructuring later also gives the team an "easier" out if Romo absolutely tanks in 2013 and 2014.
If they restructuring in 2014, they increase the dead money amount for cutting him after that season by almost $10M. This is an unlikely scenario, IMO, but I don't think it's wise to just assume the best. Contracts go bad all the time and players bomb out. Players get hurt and are forced into retirement. These are rare occurrences but the effects of them can be very damaging even without adding more dead money.
I mentioned earlier that I think they may opt for the 2014 move because they will want to sign players during the season. On second thought, I think they could still pull it off without that restructure so I'm not sure that's a reasonable approach. So long as the current year cap is in check, they could sign those guys to extensions that would put their next season's cap over the limit and then erase some of it with the restructure prior to the official start of the following season.
I agree that they will do whatever is most beneficial. I think it would be to wait a year beyond 2014 but ultimately I believe they will go ahead and do it for both seasons.
I've mentioned the money coming off the books but on the other side of the coin their previous restructures have made it to where players who won't be cut are jumping up in cap hits. Carr and Ware alone increase in cap numbers by a combined $15M. Tack on another $4M for Witten.
