News: Cowboys' offseason direction in hands of Will McClay

[The Natural]

Smoke another one.

Who's better, Carlton?

 

[texbumthelife]

We haven't even seen what Tapper can do yet. If Jaylon makes it back and Tapper can just be a good rotational guy, 2016 was one of the best drafts ever.

 

[Direwolf63]

That article does one thing, which is try to say that the draft is all about luck.

Or as some love to call it, "a crap shoot", especially when it does not work out like they want it to.

That is only partially true.

The thing it fails to do is acknowledge, by team, how a good many teams are quite frankly, idiotic in how they draft.

You can look at poor drafting teams and see it, practically every year.

Not to mention that it is rare that teams do more than recycle the same scared failed GMs from team to team, just like coaches. That does not mean they are experts, just that they are well connected and the NFL is driven by nepotism.

Actually the teams are ranked at the top of the article.

The top 5 teams.

Pitrsburgh
Indianpolis
Green Bay
Baltimore
New England

The bottom 5 teams.

Detroit
St. Louis
Buffalo
Oakland
Cleveland

The only team that looks out of place is Indy.

Cowboys are in the middle of the pack. Just like their near .500 record over the past 20 years.

The analysis isn't perfect, but its pretty good. The successful teams drafted the best. The bad teams drafted the worst. Just like we would expect.

 

[Alexander]

Interesting concept the way McClay prefers players from power 5 conferences, where Chidikowski and the scouts always preferred the diamond in the rough Wilcox's of the world players.

That's the difference now.

Perhaps. I will tell you this, Ciskowski was a lifer who had a poor eye for talent. Nobody should look at any draft and say it is a "special teams draft" like he fully admitted to doing back in 2009, with twelve picks. Twelve. And blew every single one.

 

[Risen Star]

Based on where we are drafting 2017 has a much better chance of turning out like 2015 than 2016.

I hate this thought process. That only applies to the 1st round and no draft class is great based solely on the 1st round pick. That 28th overall pick the Cowboys have is higher than the top of the 2nd round. Their 2nd round pick is higher than the top of the 3rd round and so on.

You miss out on a Zeke Elliott picking 28th instead of 4th but that's all you miss out on.

 

[gimmesix]

That article does one thing, which is try to say that the draft is all about luck.

Or as some love to call it, "a crap shoot", especially when it does not work out like they want it to.

That is only partially true.

The thing it fails to do is acknowledge, by team, how a good many teams are quite frankly, idiotic in how they draft.

You can look at poor drafting teams and see it, practically every year.

Not to mention that it is rare that teams do more than recycle the same scared failed GMs from team to team, just like coaches. That does not mean they are experts, just that they are well connected and the NFL is driven by nepotism.

I don't disagree that some teams are idiotic in how they draft, but I believe the reason that they are is because the odds are stacked against them. It's easier to take risks when you know that the percentages are stacked against you even if you don't take a risk.

Let's take Gregory as an example. If you only have a 50 percent shot at finding a starter near the bottom of the second round, then why not feel you can roll the dice on a troubled player with first-round talent?

 

[Alexander]

Actually the teams are ranked at the top of the article.

The top 5 teams.

Pitrsburgh
Indianpolis
Green Bay
Baltimore
New England

The bottom 5 teams.

Detroit
St. Louis
Buffalo
Oakland
Cleveland

The article took a very broad look though, twenty years. That is going to favor teams that have stable long term GMs, head coaches and non-lunatic owners that keep their hands out of the draft.

Like I said, poor drafting teams have instability and have scared and recycled executives making decisions for the short term, not the long term.

 

[gimmesix]

I hate this thought process. That only applies to the 1st round and no draft class is great based solely on the 1st round pick. That 28th overall pick the Cowboys have is higher than the top of the 2nd round. Their 2nd round pick is higher than the top of the 3rd round and so on.

You miss out on a Zeke Elliott picking 28th instead of 4th but that's all you miss out on.

You are still drafting lower in each round so your chances of hitting instead of missing is lower all around. There's nothing that can be done to change that.

 

[Alexander]

I don't disagree that some teams are idiotic in how they draft, but I believe the reason that they are is because the odds are stacked against them. It's easier to take risks when you know that the percentages are stacked against you even if you don't take a risk.

Let's take Gregory as an example. If you only have a 50 percent shot at finding a starter near the bottom of the second round, then why not feel you can roll the dice on a troubled player with first-round talent?

If you can examine the players effectively and know your own roster, you shouldn't have to take gambles on risky players. But there is pressure for some of these executives on short term deals to make quick turn arounds.

Your Gregory example is terrible. Jones has no reason to take risks other than the fact he wants to so he can take credit for it. He has no fear of ever losing his job and faces zero accountability, unlike the other decision makers in the league.

 

[Direwolf63]

I don't disagree that some teams are idiotic in how they draft, but I believe the reason that they are is because the odds are stacked against them. It's easier to take risks when you know that the percentages are stacked against you even if you don't take a risk.

Let's take Gregory as an example. If you only have a 50 percent shot at finding a starter near the bottom of the second round, then why not feel you can roll the dice on a troubled player with first-round talent?

This is how Jerry is looking at it.

He saw Gregory and Jaylon strictly based on risk vs. reward. He saw 1st round talents that had issues. And those issues caused them to fall.

He was willing to accept the risk for the potential reward of gaining 1st round talent in round 2.

Most are not willing to accept that risk. But Jerry is nothing if not a risk taker.

 

[Risen Star]

You are still drafting lower in each round so your chances of hitting instead of missing is lower all around. There's nothing that can be done to change that.

It doesn't matter if you're picking lower in each round. You still have every opportunity to find quality players. The Browns have an advantage picking at the top of round 2 because a good player will be there? Well isn't that same player there at 28? This is a flawed thought process I've seen recycled every year by the media. That a team had a poor draft because they picked at the bottom of each round. There's no truth to it other than the fact you will miss out on the top of the 1st round prospects if you're picking late. So scratch Zeke Elliott off the class and add an Emmanuel Ogbah and people would still be calling it a great draft class.

 

[gimmesix]

Perhaps. I will tell you this, Ciskowski was a lifer who had a poor eye for talent. Nobody should look at any draft and say it is a "special teams draft" like he fully admitted to doing back in 2009, with twelve picks. Twelve. And blew every single one.

Well, we should have hit on some of those picks, but we really lowered our percentages by dropping into the third round before making our first pick. The odds were strongly against him finding starting-caliber players.

I hope Jerry learned from that draft that trading to get more picks doesn't necessarily increase your chances of success. A bunch of picks in the later rounds means nothing because they only have a small percentage of a chance to even be a contributor. Obviously, your odds are better with more opportunities, but it's more likely that you'll find a starter with one second-round pick than a handful of sixth- or seventh-rounders.

 

[gimmesix]

It doesn't matter if you're picking lower in each round. You still have every opportunity to find quality players. The Browns have an advantage picking at the top of round 2 because a good player will be there? Well isn't that same player there at 28? This is a flawed thought process I've seen recycled every year by the media. That a team had a poor draft because they picked at the bottom of each round. There's no truth to it other than the fact you will miss out on the top of the 1st round prospects if you're picking late. So scratch Zeke Elliott off the class and add an Emmanuel Ogbah and people would still be calling it a great draft class.

This doesn't make sense. No one is saying there won't be good players available at 28, just that finding them is more difficult. Picking at No. 4, we had every right to expect Elliott to be a quality starter in the NFL. Picking at No. 28, we should be happy if we get a quality starter. We've got about an 80 percent chance of that. That would be a good draft pick.

Top of the second round is close to the same, with it lowering to about 50 percent by the end of the round, which means we could still hit on a starter there, but it's just less likely.

 

[Alexander]

Another interesting slant on how good an organization is at drafting, is not to just how many stick on their original teams, but how many are completely out of the NFL.

Last five years

Arizona - 7 out of the league
Atlanta - 10
Baltimore - 5
Buffalo - 7
Carolina - 5
Chicago - 7
Cincinnati - 4
Cleveland - 11
Dallas - 8 (including 4 in 2014)
Denver - 8
Detroit - 8
Green Bay - 9
Houston - 9
Indianapolis - 10
Jacksonville - 6
Kansas City - 9
Chargers - 8
Rams - 14
Miami - 12
Minnesota - 12
New England - 14
New Orleans - 8
Giants - 10
Jets - 16
Oakland - 7
Philadelphia - 9
Pittsburgh - 13
San Francisco - 16
Seattle - 17
Tampa Bay - 11
Tennessee - 10
Washington - 14

 

[Risen Star]

This doesn't make sense. No one is saying there won't be good players available at 28, just that finding them is more difficult. Picking at No. 4, we had every right to expect Elliott to be a quality starter in the NFL. Picking at No. 28, we should be happy if we get a quality starter. We've got about an 80 percent chance of that. That would be a good draft pick.

Top of the second round is close to the same, with it lowering to about 50 percent by the end of the round, which means we could still hit on a starter there, but it's just less likely.

What part of any player available at the top of round 2 is also available at the bottom of round 1 is confusing you? What you are saying only applies to the top of round 1.

 

[Risen Star]

Another interesting slant on how good an organization is at drafting, is not to just how many stick on their original teams, but how many are completely out of the NFL.

Last five years

Arizona - 7 out of the league
Atlanta - 10
Baltimore - 5
Buffalo - 7
Carolina - 5
Chicago - 7
Cincinnati - 4
Cleveland - 11
Dallas - 8 (including 4 in 2014)
Denver - 8
Detroit - 8
Green Bay - 9
Houston - 9
Indianapolis - 10
Jacksonville - 6
Kansas City - 9
Chargers - 8
Rams - 14
Miami - 12
Minnesota - 12
New England - 14
New Orleans - 8
Giants - 10
Jets - 16
Oakland - 7
Philadelphia - 9
Pittsburgh - 13
San Francisco - 16
Seattle - 17
Tampa Bay - 11
Tennessee - 10
Washington - 14

Need a percentage to make it relevant as teams don't have the same amount of picks every year.

 

[gimmesix]

What part of any player available at the top of round 2 is also available at the bottom of round 1 is confusing you? What you are saying only applies to the top of round 1.

Do you not agree that finding a quality starter at the top of the first round is easier than finding one at the top of the second? Then, finding a quality starter at the bottom of the first round is also lower. I'm not getting why you think that the bottom of the first being better than the top of the second is significant. The odds this year are just like they were in 2015. The line of thinking is based on percentages that have be proven over years and years of the draft.

 

[Risen Star]

Do you not agree that finding a quality starter at the top of the first round is easier than finding one at the top of the second? Then, finding a quality starter at the bottom of the first round is also lower. I'm not getting why you think that the bottom of the first being better than the top of the second is significant. The odds this year are just like they were in 2015. The line of thinking is based on percentages that have be proven over years and years of the draft.

What I'm saying is picking at the bottom of each round is irrelevant. Only picking at the bottom of round 1 is relevant. And since one player isn't making a great draft class your draft position in each round is a hollow excuse for having a poor draft.

If San Francisco has a heralded draft class this year the Cowboys could have taken every one of those players minus their 1st round pick.

 

[gimmesix]

What I'm saying is picking at the bottom of each round is irrelevant. Only picking at the bottom of round 1 is relevant. And since one player isn't making a great draft class your draft position in each round is a hollow excuse for having a poor draft.

If San Francisco has a heralded draft class this year the Cowboys could have taken every one of those players minus their 1st round pick.

But their class is much more likely to be heralded because of that first pick, just like ours was. Imagine last year's class without Zeke. Jaylon Smith bottom of the first, Maliek Collins bottom of the second ... a good class, especially finding a starting quarterback in the third or fourth round, but certainly not great.

 

[Risen Star]

But their class is much more likely to be heralded because of that first pick, just like ours was. Imagine last year's class without Zeke. Jaylon Smith bottom of the first, Maliek Collins bottom of the second ... a good class, especially finding a starting quarterback in the third or fourth round, but certainly not great.

Round and round we go.

As I said, replace Zeke with Emmanuel Ogbah and people are still calling it a great class. The Cowboys have hit on 1st round picks for many years now and nobody was calling those classes great. They did with 2016 because of what they did after the first round and that had no bearing whatsoever on draft positioning.