Cowboys - Saints - Seahawks playoff seeding

[whcarm]

Right now, if the Cowboys beat the Saints then the Cowboys will get the higher seed than the Saints (as long as both teams win an equal amount of games after that).

The problem is the Seahawks. If both teams win out then the Seahawks and Cowboys will have the identical record. Both teams will also have an identical record in the NFC. So, that will mean the third tie breaker will come into play. From what I can tell, that third tie breaker is the strength of victory. To determine strength of victory you look at the teams that the team has beaten and find their win-loss percentage.

If both the Seahawks and the Cowboys win out then the Cowboys will likely have the better strength of victory. However, it is difficult to determine right now because each team still has four games to play, so that could change.

But, if you look at all the teams that each team won against and look at the remaining teams they have to play then you find that the teams that the Seahawks have beaten (or will beat to win out) is 55-94. The Cowboys opponents are 63-85 (note, that when determining this, I gave each team both the Cowboys and Seahawks have yet to play an additional loss. I also assumed that the Panthers would beat the Eagles tonight, but that shouldn't matter much since the Cowboys have played both teams).

The Seahawks still have to play Arizona, San Francisco, San Diego and Tamba Bay. So, obviously the easiest way for the Cowboys to have a higher playoff seeding is for the Chargers to beat the Seahawks on Christmas eve. But even if they don't, the Cowboys still have a good chance of getting the second seed in the NFC playoff bracket if they win out.

 

[AmericasTeam31]

Yeah but the Seahawks will lose to the Chargers in a few weeks anyway... We should have smooth sailing to the #2 seed, if we win this week, as long as we keep our focus....

 

[Aikbach]

Yeah but the Seahawks will lose to the Chargers in a few weeks anyway... We should have smooth sailing to the #2 seed, if we win this week, as long as we keep our focus....

No guarantees, hopefully that occurs but no guarantees. Hopefully someone will beat Seattle between now and Christmas and Dallas will run the tables securing a first round bye.

 

[ZeroClub]

Yeah but the Seahawks will lose to the Chargers in a few weeks anyway... We should have smooth sailing to the #2 seed, if we win this week, as long as we keep our focus....

I'm glad you mentioned that. I hadn't taken the time to look at Seattle's remaining games ....

 

[rynochop]

I think the odds of either us or the Hawks winning out is probably remote. We could easily slip up versus the Saints or the Falcons and they have the Chargers....still a lot of football left.

Having sd that, i think its critical to get that first round bye.

 

[AdamJT13]

If the Cardinals can beat the Seahawks this week in Arizona, it would be HUGE for us. If it comes down to common games, Seattle would have the advantage over us because we have a loss to the Giants. If the Cards (or the Bucs in Week 17) beat Seattle and we end up with the same record as Seattle, it would then go to "strength of victory," and we have a big lead in that right now (.432 to .354).

 

[Hoofbite]

Right now, if the Cowboys beat the Saints then the Cowboys will get the higher seed than the Saints (as long as both teams win an equal amount of games after that).

The problem is the Seahawks. If both teams win out then the Seahawks and Cowboys will have the identical record. Both teams will also have an identical record in the NFC. So, that will mean the third tie breaker will come into play. From what I can tell, that third tie breaker is the strength of victory. To determine strength of victory you look at the teams that the team has beaten and find their win-loss percentage.

If both the Seahawks and the Cowboys win out then the Cowboys will likely have the better strength of victory. However, it is difficult to determine right now because each team still has four games to play, so that could change.

But, if you look at all the teams that each team won against and look at the remaining teams they have to play then you find that the teams that the Seahawks have beaten (or will beat to win out) is 55-94. The Cowboys opponents are 63-85 (note, that when determining this, I gave each team both the Cowboys and Seahawks have yet to play an additional loss. I also assumed that the Panthers would beat the Eagles tonight, but that shouldn't matter much since the Cowboys have played both teams).

The Seahawks still have to play Arizona, San Francisco, San Diego and Tamba Bay. So, obviously the easiest way for the Cowboys to have a higher playoff seeding is for the Chargers to beat the Seahawks on Christmas eve. But even if they don't, the Cowboys still have a good chance of getting the second seed in the NFC playoff bracket if they win out.

Common opponents takes precedence over strength of the schedule.

Gaints, Cards, Bucs and Lions are the four common opponents.

Because each team has one common opponent in the others divison, I don't know how they would count the common opponents. Strictly common only means they have 5 common GAMES.....

Seattle would be 5-0, Dallas 4-1. Realistically they should throw out one of the division games and count only the 4......in which case, it would go to strength of schedule. My guess is that they would just take the straight common record and as a result, Seattle would have the advantage.

 

[JStanz02]

What about "common games?".... isn't that the next tiebreaker after conference record or am I wrong?

 

[AmericasTeam31]

If the Cardinals can beat the Seahawks this week in Arizona, it would be HUGE for us. If it comes down to common games, Seattle would have the advantage over us because we have a loss to the Giants. If the Cards (or the Bucs in Week 17) beat Seattle and we end up with the same record as Seattle, it would then go to "strength of victory," and we have a big lead in that right now (.432 to .354).

How does that work? I thought division games didn't count in the common games tiebreaker?

 

[CrazyCowboy]

Reggie Bush will have me on pins and needles this week.

 

[Hoofbite]

How does that work? I thought division games didn't count in the common games tiebreaker?

I think they have to.....Im not sure there is any other way that common opponents could even come into play because it has to be a minimum of 4.

 

[AmericasTeam31]

I think they have to.....Im not sure there is any other way that common opponents could even come into play because it has to be a minimum of 4.

It's hard to imagine that you could use them when one team has to play them twice and the other only plays them once. And for that matter, we beat Arizona once and the Seahawks had the benefit of beating them twice. Where as we get to play the Giants (because we play in a division that is actually competetive and not full of bottom feeders like the west) twice and Seattle only has to play them once. That reeks of BS.....

 

[vicjagger]

If the Cardinals can beat the Seahawks this week in Arizona, it would be HUGE for us. If it comes down to common games, Seattle would have the advantage over us because we have a loss to the Giants. If the Cards (or the Bucs in Week 17) beat Seattle and we end up with the same record as Seattle, it would then go to "strength of victory," and we have a big lead in that right now (.432 to .354).

Without actually doing the research, I'm guessing our win over the Colts is a major part of the Strength of Victory advantage. If the Seahaks can beat the Chargers at home, their SOV could get a major bump. The Cowboys SOV will also drop after week 17, assuming a win over the Lions.

 

[whcarm]

I'm not sure about the common opponents thing. I did look at it, but I didn't factor in the Giants games. Not sure how that is done.

However, I did factor in both the Cowboys' and the Seahawk's strength of victory based on all their opponents, even the ones we have not played yet. So even if Seattle beats San Diego, their strength of victory will not be higher than the Cowboys unless a lot of the teams they have beaten win over the next four weeks and a lot of the ones we beat lose.

 

[dbair1967]

If the Cardinals can beat the Seahawks this week in Arizona, it would be HUGE for us. If it comes down to common games, Seattle would have the advantage over us because we have a loss to the Giants. If the Cards (or the Bucs in Week 17) beat Seattle and we end up with the same record as Seattle, it would then go to "strength of victory," and we have a big lead in that right now (.432 to .354).

what if we all have identical records?

David

 

[Bob Sacamano]

what if we all have identical records?

David

Bill Parcells and Mike Holmgren sumo-wrestle

 

[31RoyW31]

If the Cardinals can beat the Seahawks this week in Arizona, it would be HUGE for us. If it comes down to common games, Seattle would have the advantage over us because we have a loss to the Giants. If the Cards (or the Bucs in Week 17) beat Seattle and we end up with the same record as Seattle, it would then go to "strength of victory," and we have a big lead in that right now (.432 to .354).

Is there no consideration given that we had to play the Giants twice, while Seattle had to play AZ twice? Seems like common opponents should only apply to those played the same number of times.