It’s a solid breakdown.
I like to break it down in my head like this.
2 divisional games that are should win:
Giants and Commanders.
That puts the cowboys at 6 wins.
Then there are 7 remaining “toss up” games.
Rams, Vikings, Bears, Lions, Pats, Eagles, Bills.
If the cowboys go 4-3 for those games. That puts them at 10-6.
Unless either the cowboys or eagles really poop the bed. Yes their second game will be the defacto division title game.
I would prefer the eagles crap the bed and fall apart. But that doesn’t seem to be likely.
The eagles next 3 games are: Bears, Pats and Seahawks.
We need them to lose at least 1 of those games. Which seems likely, given how good the patriots and Seahawks are.
If they do. And the cowboys go 10-6 INCLUDING beating the eagles in the second game. The cowboys win the division.
If the eagles lose 2 more non cowboys games. It gives the cowboys a chance to lose an additional (from the 4-3 I mentioned earlier) non eagles game, and still win the division.