Cowboys Stupid Mistake Rating, Week 7

fanfromvirginia

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At the beginning of the season, I came up with an idea for a new stat, which I'm calling the Stupid Mistake rating. The formula is giveaways x 6 + # of penalties.

This week the Cowboys had 1 giveaway and 8 penalties for a rating of 14. This drops their 6-game average to 16.5. This is below average but not terrible. Yesterday's performance was a bit of a wash -- one giveaway is good but 8 penalties is quite bad. Last year we averaged 2.1 giveaways/game (2nd worst in the league) and about 7.5 penalties/game (worst in the league). This year an interesting story is beginning to unfold: we're still quite bad at penalties but only below average at turnovers. Our giveaways this year have been 0, 4, 0, 2, 2, and 1 for a 1.5 average, which is not awful. Not counting the Giants game, we're averaging just 1 giveaway per game, which is quite good. Of course the Giants game counts; it will be telling to keep an eye on this as a few more games with relatively few giveaways might indicate that the Giants turnover disaster really was an anomaly.

Note to those who have been following my weekly updates: no, I haven't yet compiled the 2009 info yet. I really, really, really am going to get to that soon. Promise. And to repeat myself because I get this every week: this stat is very easy to keep track of. I have no interest in doing the work that would be required to make it more accurately and completely reflect stupidity.

League best 2008 (the Patriots): 9.0
League median 2008: 15.1
Cowboys 2008 (league worst): 20.0
Cowboys 2009: 16.5

You can see the link below for this rating but, in short, it's not designed to explain why we're losing; its only purpose is to be an easy way to keep track of and compare our stupid mistakes over time and against other teams. It is NOT ideal -- it is designed to be easy to compute and compare so it leaves out all sorts of helpful detail that would be very hard to keep track of league-wide (e.g., calling a timeout to avoid a delay of game penalty or, say, calling two fade routes in a row on 2nd and goal from the one yard line on a night you're averaging 8 yards per rush ;)).



(For details see http://cowboyszone.com/forums/showthread.php?t=161334)
 

HoosierCowboy

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too late now but could you factor in TOs that lead to points and penalties that nullify a first down or yards gained nullified by penalty?
 

Doomsay

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fanfromvirginia;3037031 said:
This year an interesting story is beginning to unfold: we're still quite bad at penalties but only below average at turnovers. Our giveaways this year have been 0, 4, 0, 2, 2, and 1 for a 1.5 average, which is not awful. Not counting the Giants game, we're averaging just 1 giveaway per game, which is quite good. Of course the Giants game counts; it will be telling to keep an eye on this as a few more games with relatively few giveaways might indicate that the Giants turnover disaster really was an anomaly.

In general, more rushing attempts should help us in the TO department (of course our only TO yesterday was during a rushing attempt!)

I also think that Austin simply takes away a lot of jump balls away from defenders. He has some of the strongest hands I have ever seen. That hasn't always been the case with other receivers over the past few years.
 

Temo

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HoosierCowboy;3037055 said:
too late now but could you factor in TOs that lead to points and penalties that nullify a first down or yards gained nullified by penalty?

I think those things are simply a random result of doing bad things. The offense can only control the amount of giveaways and penalties-- it's not like they can control when that happens.
 

fanfromvirginia

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HoosierCowboy;3037055 said:
too late now but could you factor in TOs that lead to points and penalties that nullify a first down or yards gained nullified by penalty?

In theory, yes. In practice, it's way too troublesome. Also, I'm not really trying to track the effects of the mistakes. I'm not trying to link this to performance.
 

Doomsay

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fanfromvirginia;3037274 said:
In theory, yes. In practice, it's way too troublesome. Also, I'm not really trying to track the effects of the mistakes. I'm not trying to link this to performance.


Simple as it is, I think that it is probably pretty highly correlated to a team's relative performance - adjusted for talent. Look at how well the patriots did with an highly inexperienced QB last year and look at how a highly talented team like ours consistently under performs. It would be interesting to look at multi-year results.

That being said, I also think that the Patriots and the Steelers exist in a more favorable penalty environment than any other teams.
 

casmith07

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HoosierCowboy;3037055 said:
too late now but could you factor in TOs that lead to points and penalties that nullify a first down or yards gained nullified by penalty?

You're spinning your wheels.
 
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