Dak leads NFL in Total QBR

HMJYay said:
I would have to look at yearly cap hits. Why would you look at it from that perspective? Wouldn’t a make more sense to look at that totality of the contract as I’m assuming you want to keep Dak around? Do you dispute he’s the highest paid QB in the league?
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If he is the highest paid, why would it not translate to being the highest in a single season?

He is not the highest paid in the league. Maybe just 1 time in his career during a season. The next 2 years Mahomes is schedule to make more money than Dak, but they will restructure and lower it and kick the can down the road.
 
Chasing6 said:
If he is the highest paid, why would it not translate to being the highest in a single season?

He is not the highest paid in the league. Maybe just 1 time in his career during a season. The next 2 years Mahomes is schedule to make more money than Dak, but they will restructure and lower it and kick the can down the road.
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Because you have to look at the totality of the contract if you’re building a team long term. It would be like a person at work buying something and saying well it’s only $500 this year, it doesn’t matter if the other years are $3000. And no, restructuring doesn’t work that way, it just pushes the cap hit down the road. Unless you’re talking a pay cut. Not sure I see Dak doing that. Unless Dak retires, the money will come due. It’s why you don’t just look at one year. If you’re so confident in his abilities why can’t you admit he has the largest contract in the league?
 
HMJYay said:
Because you have to look at the totality of the contract if you’re building a team long term. It would be like a person at work buying something and saying well it’s only $500 this year, it doesn’t matter if the other years are $3000. And no, restructuring doesn’t work that way, it just pushes the cap hit down the road. Unless you’re talking a pay cut. Not sure I see Dak doing that. Unless Dak retires, the money will come due. It’s why you don’t just look at one year. If you’re so confident in his abilities why can’t you admit he has the largest contract in the league?
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No you really don't. I have seen a lot of big contracts that did not have a ton of guaranteed money allowing the player to be cut and they never see the money because it was back loaded.

You can also wisely structure it with a way out by trading them. Dumb Jerry keeps giving the no trade clause to Dak. However, the Eagles have gotten out of some of their bigger contracts by trading players before they have declined and still had value.

Jerry would rather keep the player, when they are highly compensated, but are on the downside of their career.

We don't have a wise GM, that is willing to make smart decisions.

The reality is and only thing that matters is the current salary cap hit for that year. Next year's can be adjusted and or changed.
 
Ken said:
Adjusted QBR (Total Quarterback Rating) is an ESPN metric that evaluates a QB's overall performance on a 0-100 scale, adjusting for the strength of opposing defenses faced, game situations (score, time, field position), and separating QB contribution from teammates. It's a comprehensive stat that credits QBs for success in tough spots (e.g., clutch plays, avoiding sacks) and penalizes them for mistakes, aiming to show how much a QB contributes to winning beyond simple stats like completion percentage.

Key components and adjustments:
  • Contextualizes plays: A 5-yard gain on 3rd-and-4 is more valuable than on 3rd-and-14; a TD in the 2nd quarter (tied) is better than late in a blowout.
  • Accounts for difficulty: Adjusts credit based on game leverage (score, time, field position) and opponent strength, giving more credit for success against strong defenses.
  • Includes all contributions: Considers passing, rushing, turnovers, penalties, and even designed runs and scrambles.
  • Divides credit: Allocates credit between the QB and teammates (e.g., receiver, blockers) for each play.
  • Removes "garbage time": Low-leverage plays late in decided games are discounted.

How it works (in simple terms):
  1. Calculate Expected Points Added (EPA) for each play based on game situation.
  2. Adjust EPA for QB contribution, difficulty, and opponent.
  3. Discount "trash time" plays.
  4. Average these adjusted plays to get a value on a 0-100 scale, where 50 is average.
In essence, Adjusted QBR gives a holistic view, showing how much a quarterback truly impacts winning by accounting for the specific challenges and contexts of each play, unlike traditional passer ratings that rely solely on aggregate stats.
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There are glaring issues with the method.

A QB who is dominant early in the game, resulting in a blowout will not benefit as much as someone who starts slow and finishes strong in a tighter game.
 
You hush your mouth or you will vilified by the DDS crew here. He sucks, and that must be the end of it.
 
Kevinicus said:
There are glaring issues with the method.

A QB who is dominant early in the game, resulting in a blowout will not benefit as much as someone who starts slow and finishes strong in a tighter game.
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So you think it is harder for a QB to play with a lead? When they don't have to force the ball and they can just take what the defense is giving them? Especially when the opposing defense can't tackle or even keep up with a guy playing with a bad ankle.

It is funny to me how people want to compare QB's against each other when they don't play against each other, but they don't want to compare how our defense played against the other teams defense.
 
As someone who has been critical of him in the past, I don't have much to criticize him about thus far. I do think in some games, typically big games, he does a few things that a guy of his supposed caliber should not do.

Last night, for example, that pass down the sideline to Lamb. Yes, even the best QBs miss a throw like that but Dak's throw was so terrible that you have to point it out and criticize him for it.

The other thing that bothered me was how he goes braindead at times. On one of those last drives last night where time was obviously an issue, he takes a sack when he could have thrown the ball away. Then a couple plays later, he tries to scramble and gets tackled for like a half yard gain. Throw the freaking ball away. Time is your enemy there. A veteran QB needs to be smarter in those two spots.
 
Chasing6 said:
So you think it is harder for a QB to play with a lead? When they don't have to force the ball and they can just take what the defense is giving them? Especially when the opposing defense can't tackle or even keep up with a guy playing with a bad ankle.

It is funny to me how people want to compare QB's against each other when they don't play against each other, but they don't want to compare how our defense played against the other teams defense.
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Why do they have a lead to play with?

I think it's illogical to place higher value later in the game.
Points are worth the same in the 1st quarter as they are in the 4th.
What happens earlier in the game has a direct impact on the situations later in the game. Because of that, I may even place more value on playing well early.

I can understand using opposing defense as a metric, as long as it's done logically. And of course, you'd have to do the same with the OL and weapons around the QB as well. It's subjective and very difficult to apply to a metric.

I agree with the last line. Comparing QBs in head to head matchups is dumb.
 
Sydla said:
As someone who has been critical of him in the past, I don't have much to criticize him about thus far. I do think in some games, typically big games, he does a few things that a guy of his supposed caliber should not do.

Last night, for example, that pass down the sideline to Lamb. Yes, even the best QBs miss a throw like that but Dak's throw was so terrible that you have to point it out and criticize him for it.

The other thing that bothered me was how he goes braindead at times. On one of those last drives last night where time was obviously an issue, he takes a sack when he could have thrown the ball away. Then a couple plays later, he tries to scramble and gets tackled for like a half yard gain. Throw the freaking ball away. Time is your enemy there. A veteran QB needs to be smarter in those two spots.
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Seems like common sense. Until you realize when you are down 2 scores and running out of time you have to try and make something happen. This is when bad things happen. At that point you take a sack, throw it away or force a pick. None of those things are going to help. Obviously the incompletion is the best option there, but that is not going to get you back in the game either.

This is the same reason why good teams don't give up 30 points a game and put their offense in those situations.

Unfortunately when you have our defense and you are the QB, you already know before the game starts we are giving up 30+ points and against a good team most likely 40+.(why Schotty was not aware is beyond me)

Schotty not going for it before the half was a mistake. Not at least pretending to go for it, run the clock down, call time out and kick the FG was a mistake. Dan was not calling a time out there until he seen Aubrey trout out on the field. That mistake cost us a minimum of 3 points.

Down 17-6 and seeing how our D was playing we should have gone for it there.

Then again late down 10 on 4th and 3 we kick the FG. What indication during the game made Schooty feel like our D was going to get us the ball back?
 
Miguelitomama said:
I really love Dak. This fan base thinks he's the village idiot, but there are so many teams who would give anything to have a quarterback of his caliber.
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The rest of those teams are clearly not as smart as the “fan base” of ours.
 
Chasing6 said:
Seems like common sense. Until you realize when you are down 2 scores and running out of time you have to try and make something happen. This is when bad things happen. At that point you take a sack, throw it away or force a pick. None of those things are going to help. Obviously the incompletion is the best option there, but that is not going to get you back in the game either.

This is the same reason why good teams don't give up 30 points a game and put their offense in those situations.

Unfortunately when you have our defense and you are the QB, you already know before the game starts we are giving up 30+ points and against a good team most likely 40+.(why Schotty was not aware is beyond me)

Schotty not going for it before the half was a mistake. Not at least pretending to go for it, run the clock down, call time out and kick the FG was a mistake. Dan was not calling a time out there until he seen Aubrey trout out on the field. That mistake cost us a minimum of 3 points.

Down 17-6 and seeing how our D was playing we should have gone for it there.

Then again late down 10 on 4th and 3 we kick the FG. What indication during the game made Schooty feel like our D was going to get us the ball back?
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What was it that Andy Dufresne said? Something about “hope” being the best of things?

Clearly, hope is not a strategy, and Eberflunk didn’t have much of one either.
 
What happened to this QBR leading QB you all are exaggerating about last night? He should have shown his ID to the Detroit defense.

He stumbled and bumbled and crumbled, and thank Aubrey or it would have been a big goose egg in the first half. Never recovered. He had the deer in the headlights look. Is this gonna hurt his MVP chances?
 
Chasing6 said:
No you really don't. I have seen a lot of big contracts that did not have a ton of guaranteed money allowing the player to be cut and they never see the money because it was back loaded.

You can also wisely structure it with a way out by trading them. Dumb Jerry keeps giving the no trade clause to Dak. However, the Eagles have gotten out of some of their bigger contracts by trading players before they have declined and still had value.

Jerry would rather keep the player, when they are highly compensated, but are on the downside of their career.

We don't have a wise GM, that is willing to make smart decisions.

The reality is and only thing that matters is the current salary cap hit for that year. Next year's can be adjusted and or changed.
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No, it can’t. Not without massive dead money. Trading may lessen that. I welcome them trading Dak. You can’t look at a contract in a vacuum of one year. The Eagles get out of it because they front load. Dak’s cap hit keeps escalating. If they “got out” of it there would be massive dead money because the contract is not based on one year, it’s a totality.

So, while I agree Jerry and Stephen give out moronic contracts (not just to Dak), there is no disputing Dak is the highest paid in QB in the NFL. It’s a fact.

They could cut him after next season and incur moderate dead money. They could cut him two years from now and essentially break even. They could restructure and continuing paying out the contract, but that just delays the larger cap hits or dead money. I’ll admit I’m not an expert, so wouldn’t be the first time I’ve been wrong. Someone that is an expert, is this correct?
 
HMJYay said:
No, it can’t. Not without massive dead money. Trading may lessen that. I welcome them trading Dak. You can’t look at a contract in a vacuum of one year. The Eagles get out of it because they front load. Dak’s cap hit keeps escalating. If they “got out” of it there would be massive dead money because the contract is not based on one year, it’s a totality.

So, while I agree Jerry and Stephen give out moronic contracts (not just to Dak), there is no disputing Dak is the highest paid in QB in the NFL. It’s a fact.

They could cut him after next season and incur moderate dead money. They could cut him two years from now and essentially break even. They could restructure and continuing paying out the contract, but that just delays the larger cap hits or dead money. I’ll admit I’m not an expert, so wouldn’t be the first time I’ve been wrong. Someone that is an expert, is this correct?
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Philly does it every year. Watch what KC does to Mahomes contract next year.
 
Chasing6 said:
Seems like common sense. Until you realize when you are down 2 scores and running out of time you have to try and make something happen. This is when bad things happen. At that point you take a sack, throw it away or force a pick. None of those things are going to help. Obviously the incompletion is the best option there, but that is not going to get you back in the game either.

This is the same reason why good teams don't give up 30 points a game and put their offense in those situations.

Unfortunately when you have our defense and you are the QB, you already know before the game starts we are giving up 30+ points and against a good team most likely 40+.(why Schotty was not aware is beyond me)

Schotty not going for it before the half was a mistake. Not at least pretending to go for it, run the clock down, call time out and kick the FG was a mistake. Dan was not calling a time out there until he seen Aubrey trout out on the field. That mistake cost us a minimum of 3 points.

Down 17-6 and seeing how our D was playing we should have gone for it there.

Then again late down 10 on 4th and 3 we kick the FG. What indication during the game made Schooty feel like our D was going to get us the ball back?
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Those were bad decisions by Dak. Sugarcoat it all you want but those two plays cost us valuable time (which in the end wouldn’t have matter led with this crap D)
 
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