To be clear, MVP is an Associated Press award voted on by sports writers. There are no real criteria for how they vote, it's just what the collected dopes like Peter King et. al. feel like. So don't expect a lot of deep thought to go into it.
Dak and Zeke are going to split the Cowboys player vote and neither one will get it. That's what's actually going to happen. A team with 2 serious candidates really has 0.
There is also rookie bias against them - no rookie has won MVP in like 30+ years or something I think.
My uneducated guess is that Brady wins. I don't think he should, but it's my gut feeling. There are only 3 elite teams, and their QBs are the most likely candidates for MVP. Carr is out due to injury. Dak is is a rookie (strike one) who is going to split the vote with another rookie on his own team (strike two). That leaves Brady. Rodgers and Ryan have too many bad losses this year, plus nobody trusts Ryan or the Falcons in the postseason - that shouldn't matter, but nobody wants to vote in a guy for MVP who then puts on a huge playoff choke job like Peyton Manning did in his MVP seasons. Stafford's team is flaming out, Brees is piling up garbage time yards on a trash team, and no WR or RB is having a 2,000 yard season or something to jump ahead of any QBs.
Dak and Zeke will split rookie of the year/offensive rookie of the year between them, Zeke will probably be 1st team All-Pro too.