Dak, Time to Release, and Air Yards

[Roadtrip635]

I don't think there is an agenda... in the thread. The stats are, what the stats are. I am just not a big believer in stats when it comes to evaluating players. Because of the variables... (same players, same situations, etc...)

But...

When someone posts positive stats they have an agenda with the people not on the Dak train.

When people post stats that show Dak's flaws they are a hater.

Frankly it is simple...

Dak is a QB with mediocre ability to read defenses, mediocre arm talent, that holds the ball too long, but has a will to win. Sometimes heart can trump skill... When all the players around you are on the same page, and
are helping you, and are great.

But, I mentioned before, people compare him to Russell Wilson, which I think is fair... because really the first 4 seasons or so, Wilson wasn't amazing at all. He was boring to watch, and he had a defense that made
all the difference for him, and they won a super bowl, and made it to another one. It Took Wilson 5 to 6 seasons to become a good QB. He had games where his passing yards were through the roof in stats, and others where he didn't break 200 yards. His last game, he didn't break 100 did he? I didn't see all the stuff that people gushed over about Wilson being elite (I still don't). He had a couple 4k yard seasons... He goes on runs where he makes passes, and then he sucks... Really he and Dak are long lost brothers in my book.

We came from a QB that could beat you with his arm, or even beat his own team with his arm... But, could read a defense, and laser some balls, and made quick decisions, and was exciting to watch. Some of the most
amazing escapes in football history. But, this team was really not designed ever to win it all during his time. Jerry admitted he screwed up, and honestly... they are making some good decisions to not repeat the mistakes
of the past.

But as a fan base we are used to that, and then we change... the entire team dynamic changes... Fan bases have a hard time with change. People in general do not like change. I didn't like the change... In two season you lost
Romo, Dez, and Witten. They were the faces of the franchise, like the triplets.

Can Dak become great? I think Dak, possibly could, but my problem the whole time was waiting for it to happen. That change thing, is rough to swallow.

But, now we are in a position where the defense is pretty friggin good. They have the ability to keep the score low. So Dak has the chance to make nail biting wins. He has the chance to even win a SB, yet be a mediocre QB.

Blake Bortles almost made it to the Super Bowl, so we know you can. Wilson made it to the Super Bowl and won, because of a superior defense. He was pedestrian like as well in my book.

I mean that Denver game was soul crushing to them (Denver). The first snap goes past Manning into the endzone for a safety... That whole game was kind of a WTH?? Game...

Look at Wilson's playoff run to Super Bowl win:

That is very Dak-ish

But we right now have our own Legion of Boom... Hard to pass on us, and REALLY hard to run on us.

The problem is simple... Dak is not going to beat you based on arm talent except in rare situations (Eagles worst secondary in the NFL right now)

He needs elite players around him, and he needs input on play changes... Like Amari telling him the stop routes sucked. You know we are famous for running curl routes etc, over and over and over and over...

So if Zeke or Amari go down, the party is over. The Cowboys margin for error is such a fine line, that it is nerve wracking at times.

Teams have to deal with Cooper on passing downs. This frees up Zeke as a checkdown target, and rushing yards.

Even when they show a stacked box, and LBs ready to blitz, you will see the LBs back off and go into zone coverage many times. Just trying to screw with Dak's head.

Now teams are going to start doubling Cooper, which will free up more checkdowns to Zeke, etc...

Dak's skill isn't an integral part of this team winning or losing. But obviously they mesh well together somehow. Basically, it is backyard football. He needs players to come back to the huddle, and say
this is happening to me, let's try this. Dez was a 50/50 ball guy, so in his opinion he was open no matter what. Cooper is really elite in route running, so he finds space. Which with Dak's arm talent, is what is needed.

I really like Amari, he was actually one of my favorite receivers, and even I was against him coming here on a 1st round pick. Because I thought we needed to be looking for a QB.

I still think being the franchise we are, we should be able to find our Rodgers... but, they are tough to come by. Mahomes is a freak... the kid sees the field and reads defenses in an amazing way. Like some
type of prodigy... I don't think anyone expected that. Maybe their scouting department did.

Frankly we didn't have a chance at him, and Dallas wasn't picking him anyway after the 2016 season in Dallas.

But, if you take Zeke or Cooper out right now, it throws the whole thing off balance. Just like our defense when Lee was missing last year.

One player being out, should not destroy a team... That is why the Cowboys, the most valuable franchise in sports, are one of the most nerve wracking teams there is.

But, if they can hold this strategy together, and then actually find the type of backups we need to sustain it, when injuries happen... We have a serious chance of winning smash mouth football,
in a league where that isn't the way the game is played. But, the balance needs to stay, even if we have major injuries.

So for that to happen, Dak better be ready to suck it up at contract time. I said that long before Colin did... If Dak thinks he deserves a contract that cripples this team, he needs to hit
the bricks... Because, Dak is actually one of the most replaceable pieces in the way this team is made. Whether Dak fanatics believe that or not, or believe it, but don't want to say it,
it is a fact. Making $20mil a year, won't cripple the team... If any person can't live their life off one years salary they have issues. let alone multiple years at that salary... While still
playing for your childhood favorite team.

So the salary negotiations will show the real character of Dak. His change in agents has many people worried...

To expand a little with Wilson and the Seahawks. They run more and pass less than anyone in the league right now. During MNF, they were talking about Carroll and he said the reason they went back to a run first offense was because it was easier to win that way. Build up a good defense and good run game and you can control the clock, control the game and make less mistakes. He said that was the big change from earlier in the season, committing to be able to run the ball. Wilson was getting pummeled early in the season and decided to commit to running the ball. They've been playing much better since. Don't know how far they can go, but they're in the playoff hunt.

 

[TexasHillbilly]

Another bash Dak thread, as if there weren't enough.

I am starting one deciphering how far his feet are apart when he releases the ball as compared to the other 31 qb's in the nfl. Bet he is the worst one ever.

 

[TheHerd]

Why is everyone so enamored with how far the ball goes in the air? If we're moving the ball, and we're getting converting third downs, and we're controlling TOP, and we're winning games, I'm good.

 

[Runwildboys]

I'm not the only one to see it...lol

Well then, tell whomever else "sees it" that they're also wrong.

OR

I'm not the only one who sees Dak's shortcomings.

Choose the reply you prefer.

 

[Runwildboys]

Its amazing the extent people will go to find fault with the 2nd winningest QB of the last three years.

and his coaches.

 

[Dre11]

Well then, tell whomever else "sees it" that they're also wrong.

OR

I'm not the only one who sees Dak's shortcomings.

Choose the reply you prefer.

Lol....we're right.


8,792 messages
6,203 likes received
↑
Funny how when the stats show Dak in a positive light, it's "proof to the haters", but when they don't, it's "bashing".
Click to expand...
Dude…you too are a hater.

Own it.

Heck, if everyone who hates Dak would just own and stop being coy or fain ignorance, it’d be a glorious day.

Cowboyz88, Today at 12:58 PMReport
#28UnlikeReply
You, Kolemmitt and Plumfool like this.

 

[percyhoward]

Yes. but AIAY is way below them. Which means they are attempting deeper down field passes.

Like I said, deep attempts are one thing. The results of those deep throws are another.

See Winston, Jameis.

 

[Dorsett33]

15 QBs With Longest Time to Release and Average Intended Air Yards (AIAY):

J. Allen - 3.28, 11.1
D. Watson - 3.03, 8.7
R. Wilson - 3.0, 9.2
J Goff - 2.97, 8.9
A. Rodgers - 2.93, 8.8
P. Mahomes - 2.9, 9.2
S. Darnold - 2.88, 8.8
D. Prescott - 2.87, 7.6
B. Mayfield - 2.83, 9.0
B. Bortles - 2.79, 6.9
A. Smith - 2.78, 8.1
B. Osweiler - 2.78, 7.7
J. Rosen - 2.76, 8.3
J. Winston - 2.75, 10.8
J. Flacco - 2.71, 8.4

This is greatly indicative of how fast quarterbacks are able to decipher and throw the ball down the field. Some is a bit skewed by scrambling due to OL. Of those who hold the ball a long time, Dak's closest peers are Blake Bortles and Brock Osweiler.

10 QBs closest to Dak AIAY:

A. Smith - 2.78, 8.1
P. Rivers - 2.64, 7.9
C. Wentz - 2.66, 7.8
B. Osweiler - 2.78, 7.7
M. Mariota - 2.65, 7.7
D. Prescott - 2.87, 7.6
T. Brady - 2.58, 7.5
C Keenum - 2.68, 7.5
B. Roethlisberger - 2.54, 7.5
A. Luck - 2.63, 7.4
C. Newton - 2.63, 7.4

Of his peers who throw the ball downfield at the same rate, Dak is, by far, the slowest to release the ball. He doesn't even have any peers in his group.

This is why so many of the stats comparing Dak's passing to, really anybody, are disingenuous. A pass of the same distance is not the same if it takes .25 seconds longer to get there. That is an eternity in the NFL.

There are a whole bunch of trends to come from this type of data set, but at the end of the day, it's a pretty clear representation that Dak struggles to progress through his reads quickly and deliver the ball down the field. It is also why Cooper is the absolutely perfect receiver for Dak...in single-high, he just has to start at Amari until he's open.

And this meeeaans???? Cause we're 8-5 with him at QB. As a matter of fact what are the records of those QBs since Dak started? Bet Dak is at or near the top. Cause after all.....the 'W' is what counts.

 

[Future]

Yeah, much more dynamic. Including a wide variety of overthrows, underthrows, interceptions, and TD to the tune of a line that looks like this.

Winston 20+ yard targets
9 of 32 295 yd 3 td 4 int 57.2

Ok? I didn't say it's better, but their passing game is more dynamic. An INT 40 yards down the field is no worse than a sack.

You're also leaving out Fitz' numbers, and he does the same thing.

 

[Runwildboys]

Lol....we're right.


8,792 messages
6,203 likes received
↑
Funny how when the stats show Dak in a positive light, it's "proof to the haters", but when they don't, it's "bashing".
Click to expand...
Dude…you too are a hater.

Own it.

Heck, if everyone who hates Dak would just own and stop being coy or fain ignorance, it’d be a glorious day.

Cowboyz88, Today at 12:58 PMReport
#28UnlikeReply
You, Kolemmitt and Plumfool like this.

I have no idea what The messages/likes thing has to do with anything in any way, or even where those numbers come from, but they make as much sense as anything else you say.
If I hated Dak, why on Earth would I claim not to? If I hated Dak, I wouldn't say I hope he starts trying to avoid big hits, or that he's gotten much better since he got a receiver he trusts and has chemistry with, and I sure as Hell wouldn't say I don't hate him.

Grow up.

 

[Future]

Its amazing the extent people will go to find fault with the 2nd winningest QB of the last three years.

It is literally raw numbers. It's not finding fault or making it up. It's right there.

 

[Roadtrip635]

Well attempt volume is largely irrelevant, but attempt quality would, even though it's a lot harder to measure. Yards of separation and completions on "jump balls" would greatly influence rating on balls down the field. Especially when we're talking about, even on the teams that chuck it the most, a handful of passes a game.

But if you compare Dak to, say, Jameis, of course Dak is going to have the better passer rating on those throws. He only throws those balls when there is man coverage (which, fine, that's smart) and generally only when the WR wins. Almost every QB in the league is going to have a high rating when they don't even try to throw the contested balls. Jameis, on the other hand, chucks it all the time, so Tampa's downfield passing game is going to be a lot more dynamic, even if the rating is a lot worse.

Jameis is a big arm QB that is overconfident in his arm. That's something you see with those kind of QBs, they think they can fit the ball anywhere and it's just worse without the accuracy. Stafford's got some of that in him, while he's more accurate, the overconfidence in his arm gets him in trouble at times. That's why Jim Bob Cooter transitioned to shorter passes than previous schemes, a way to save Stafford from himself. It worked with Megatron there, but after he retired, gotta adust how you play. Jameis also has a big WR that can go up and win jump balls, but without the accuracy, that's asking for trouble. I think that's why Dez was a bad fit for Dak, Dak's too conservative to make those throws. It also doesn't help to have a conservative coach that undoubtedly was drilling into Dak's head to take care of the ball. We heard a lot of that from Garrett, especially Dak's rookie year, taking care of the ball. Amari and Dak is just a better fit, style wise. Amari can get open, but Dak can trust that Amari will get open, don't know if he felt the same with Dez.

 

[Roadtrip635]

Like I said, deep attempts are one thing. The results of those deep throws are another.

See Winston, Jameis.

And Brees has a lower air yards/attempt.

 

[CowboyRoy]

Petty blame game? We are discussing how useful advanced stats are in football. What the?



You types? Ok, yeah. Im done. You want to fight about who is right, who is wrong about the QB and therefore is a better fan and have your peeing contest, find someone else to have it with. You weren't interested in a stat discussion in the first place. You just wanted to use it as a bludgeon against anyone you think isn't all-in on Dak.

Im not all-in on Dak. I just think the kid has some great qualities and were lucky to find him in the 4th round. You types act like this guy was the first pick in the draft and its year #5 and he cant read a defense. Nonsense. When Dak has had quality players around him he balls. Its that simple. Leadership, work ethic, attitude, poise, clutch, these are all big strengths of his. Cant have it all buddy.

 

[percyhoward]

And Brees has a lower air yards/attempt.

By almost four yards.

 

[jterrell]

15 QBs With Longest Time to Release and Average Intended Air Yards (AIAY):

J. Allen - 3.28, 11.1
D. Watson - 3.03, 8.7
R. Wilson - 3.0, 9.2
J Goff - 2.97, 8.9
A. Rodgers - 2.93, 8.8
P. Mahomes - 2.9, 9.2
S. Darnold - 2.88, 8.8
D. Prescott - 2.87, 7.6
B. Mayfield - 2.83, 9.0
B. Bortles - 2.79, 6.9
A. Smith - 2.78, 8.1
B. Osweiler - 2.78, 7.7
J. Rosen - 2.76, 8.3
J. Winston - 2.75, 10.8
J. Flacco - 2.71, 8.4

This is greatly indicative of how fast quarterbacks are able to decipher and throw the ball down the field. Some is a bit skewed by scrambling due to OL. Of those who hold the ball a long time, Dak's closest peers are Blake Bortles and Brock Osweiler.

10 QBs closest to Dak AIAY:

A. Smith - 2.78, 8.1
P. Rivers - 2.64, 7.9
C. Wentz - 2.66, 7.8
B. Osweiler - 2.78, 7.7
M. Mariota - 2.65, 7.7
D. Prescott - 2.87, 7.6
T. Brady - 2.58, 7.5
C Keenum - 2.68, 7.5
B. Roethlisberger - 2.54, 7.5
A. Luck - 2.63, 7.4
C. Newton - 2.63, 7.4

Of his peers who throw the ball downfield at the same rate, Dak is, by far, the slowest to release the ball. He doesn't even have any peers in his group.

This is why so many of the stats comparing Dak's passing to, really anybody, are disingenuous. A pass of the same distance is not the same if it takes .25 seconds longer to get there. That is an eternity in the NFL.

There are a whole bunch of trends to come from this type of data set, but at the end of the day, it's a pretty clear representation that Dak struggles to progress through his reads quickly and deliver the ball down the field. It is also why Cooper is the absolutely perfect receiver for Dak...in single-high, he just has to start at Amari until he's open.

ROFL....
This might be the most lying post I have ever seen.
But I give you credit for searching high and low for a coupe stats you could manipulate when it was clear you were clueless.

TT is a direct correlation to your OFFENSIVE PLAY CALLING.
DAL doesn't use quick pick plays and runs a timing based 5 or 7 step drop offense.
He's not playing in shot gun or our of 3 step drops.

Dak has been at 2.82, 2.87 and 2.82 across 3 years in this offense.
Offense hasn't changed and TT results won't either.
He will always finish in top 8 or so highest in this area in this offense.

Average Intended Air Yards (AIAY) is just that. an AVERAGE.
It has zero to do with how many passes you throw in the intermediate and is mostly a function of your screen game versus deep shots.
DAL actually doesn't take enough of either in this offense.
As we saw Sunday, a play change resulted in a 75 yard TD play.
The play call was a 10 yard stop.

Trying to pin that on Dak is stupid.
Then again everything you have posted about Dak is stupid.

BTW while you are playing with advanced stats you may note:
In completion % above expectation Dak is 8th. That measures accuracy versus the actual pass thrown.
He is also 5th in aggressiveness. That measures tight window throws.
If you want to correlate something try his high completion % (9th overall) even though over 44% of his throws are in to tight windows(5th most).

All data compiled Dak ranks 12th to 18th in virtually every overall ranking of QBs.
That's what DAL is getting and they are getting it for the 60th highest paid QB.
It's exactly why they are 30-15 with him as a starter.
He is far outperforming his salary and draft slot.

Dak has performed at a top 10-12 level with Amari in the fold.

If you can't enjoy this then you are simply stupid. DAL hasn't won like this in over years.
Tony Romo had 1 winning season in his last 5 as the full-time starter.
Dak has provided 2 division titles in 3 seasons. And yes he gets more help... because he costs 20m less and we have cap room for said help.

 

[Outlaw Heroes]

15 QBs With Longest Time to Release and Average Intended Air Yards (AIAY):

J. Allen - 3.28, 11.1
D. Watson - 3.03, 8.7
R. Wilson - 3.0, 9.2
J Goff - 2.97, 8.9
A. Rodgers - 2.93, 8.8
P. Mahomes - 2.9, 9.2
S. Darnold - 2.88, 8.8
D. Prescott - 2.87, 7.6
B. Mayfield - 2.83, 9.0
B. Bortles - 2.79, 6.9
A. Smith - 2.78, 8.1
B. Osweiler - 2.78, 7.7
J. Rosen - 2.76, 8.3
J. Winston - 2.75, 10.8
J. Flacco - 2.71, 8.4

This is greatly indicative of how fast quarterbacks are able to decipher and throw the ball down the field. Some is a bit skewed by scrambling due to OL. Of those who hold the ball a long time, Dak's closest peers are Blake Bortles and Brock Osweiler.

10 QBs closest to Dak AIAY:

A. Smith - 2.78, 8.1
P. Rivers - 2.64, 7.9
C. Wentz - 2.66, 7.8
B. Osweiler - 2.78, 7.7
M. Mariota - 2.65, 7.7
D. Prescott - 2.87, 7.6
T. Brady - 2.58, 7.5
C Keenum - 2.68, 7.5
B. Roethlisberger - 2.54, 7.5
A. Luck - 2.63, 7.4
C. Newton - 2.63, 7.4

Of his peers who throw the ball downfield at the same rate, Dak is, by far, the slowest to release the ball. He doesn't even have any peers in his group.

This is why so many of the stats comparing Dak's passing to, really anybody, are disingenuous. A pass of the same distance is not the same if it takes .25 seconds longer to get there. That is an eternity in the NFL.

There are a whole bunch of trends to come from this type of data set, but at the end of the day, it's a pretty clear representation that Dak struggles to progress through his reads quickly and deliver the ball down the field. It is also why Cooper is the absolutely perfect receiver for Dak...in single-high, he just has to start at Amari until he's open.

Nice data and analysis. (Obviously you should ignore the clowns who pretend to dismiss it because they appear not to understand it.)

You draw a few hasty conclusions, however. One reason you might take a relatively long time to umltimately throw it a relatively short distance is because you’re uncertain (or lack confidence) in what you’re seeing downfield and so decide to just make the safe play and take the check down. This is the conclusion you appear to be advancing and it accords with the common perception that Dak has difficulty getting through his progressions and lacks confidence in his reads.

But it could also just be that his downfield receivers aren’t getting open (or at least not before Dak moves on in his progression) so he’s forced to take the check-down. For over half the season Dak had a rag-tag group of receivers whose ability to get open downfield can be questioned.

I’d like to see the numbers rerun following Cooper’s arrival. If they tell the same story your conclusion will be vindicated. But if not,it would suggest the problem was with the receivers. (In this sense air yards are not as independent of WR effects as your initial post suggested.)

 

[bsbellomy]

If you’re calling me out, you’re barking up the wrong tree.

I have stated a million times that I have a love hate relationship with him.

Seems like you have an IN DENIAL relationship with Dak.

 

[bsbellomy]

ROFL....
This might be the most lying post I have ever seen.
But I give you credit for searching high and low for a coupe stats you could manipulate when it was clear you were clueless.

TT is a direct correlation to your OFFENSIVE PLAY CALLING.
DAL doesn't use quick pick plays and runs a timing based 5 or 7 step drop offense.
He's not playing in shot gun or our of 3 step drops.

Dak has been at 2.82, 2.87 and 2.82 across 3 years in this offense.
Offense hasn't changed and TT results won't either.
He will always finish in top 8 or so highest in this area in this offense.
.

If you are going to try and destroy his data at least provide some of your own. DAL plays a lot out of the shotgun and runs an above average amount of short passing routes. So you just saying it doesn't make it right.

 

[DasSchnitzel]

But the best QBS on the list are holding the ball longer... and sure their AIYA or whatever is higher but if I'm holding the ball longer, I'm letting my receivers get farther down field, and so I'm throwing farther.

I think these stats say this: the best QBs have the higher AIYA because they hold the ball longer because they can afford to. Between the extra time and the players good enough to allow more time, it gives them the opportunity to look like the best QBs.