Dak vs. Romo - Deep passing

glimmerman

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I think the claim that JG won't have anything to do with the offense is to provide cover and essentially make Linehan the scapegoat. Over the years Linehan has been the OC the playbook hasn't changed. No new wrinkles added, heck we draft guys like Switzer and don't use him to his strength.
Linehan as the next scapegoat is exactly what I am thinking. He was almost one this year. But JJ needs another fall guy in case we don’t make the SB or deep playoff run this season. He really don’t want to fire him.
 

Aviano90

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Numbers do lie. And they lie hard. I.e. first half of the season when Jaylon was tackling guys 6-8 yards pass the line of scrimmage. The stat guys just looks and says “wow he’s great....look at all those tackles”.

I have hope that Dak improves! We need him to be the best QB he can be. Go cowboys!

Some stats can be manipulated. However, when someone claims Dak won't or doesn't throw deep, there are objective stats that quantify exactly how often he throws deep. The reason why or why not can be subjective.

So, if Romo and Dak both threw deep at similar rates, is that more indicative of a QB problem or maybe an offensive scheme problem? Maybe it is a protection issue or a receiver issue. Romo went deep more often when TO was here than he did later in his career.

The point of the thread is that we go deep about the same time as we normally have been going deep for many years. It's not like our offense just started throwing nothing but 5 yard passes after years of hurling the ball downfield.
 

mrmojo

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I'm confused is Romo planning on coming out of retirement? Dak will make his own mark and have his own positives and negatives. Let Tony rest.
 

rnr_honeybadger

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Since you watched those QBs tell us Aikmans numbers and how he looked the first couple of years

Heck just compare Drew Brees in San Diego and Drew Brees in New Orleans. Did anyone looking at Brees in San Diego think he would be a SB caliber QB? No QB in the world ever won a SB alone, that includes the great Tom Brady. Heck take Tom Brady, put him in a Cleveland Browns uniform and he would be a retired guy who is mentioned in the same breath as Tim Couch and Johnny Manziel.
 

LandryFan

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Since you watched those QBs tell us Aikmans numbers and how he looked the first couple of years
There was a time or two that Aikman, himself, couldn't tell you if his pass was complete...he was on the ground nearly unconscious. The example I remember was, I think, against the Cards and he got the crown of a helmet to his chin right as he threw the ball. Think it went for about 84 yds (and a TD), but he never saw it.
 

rnr_honeybadger

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Linehan as the next scapegoat is exactly what I am thinking. He was almost one this year. But JJ needs another fall guy in case we don’t make the SB or deep playoff run this season. He really don’t want to fire him.

And we won't make a deep run. This team doesn't have the iron will needed at the HC level to actually do that. Yea we might have a good regular season, get into the playoffs and most likely lose in the first round. Jerry will reshuffle the deck chairs, maybe fire Linehan, maybe Marinelli and we will do it all over again.
 

Denim Chicken

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Here's Dak's report from 2016

FINAL GRADE: B+
Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys)
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Accuracy Percentage On 16+ Throws: 54.3% (11th)
Accuracy Percentage on 20+ Throws: 47.6% (11th)

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By now, everyone knows the Dak Prescott story. Drafted in the fourth round, he came in for an injured Tony Romo and never let go of the starting role, surprising everyone and winning Offensive Rookie of the Year in the process.

All things considered, Prescott was not bad at all. The downfield passing can’t compare to Romo in his prime, but for a rookie it’s a good start! There really isn’t anything amazing or abysmal, but there’s more good than bad in this situation.

The Week 16 matchup against Detroit showcased superb downfield accuracy, but otherwise this was pretty standard stuff. Nevertheless, Prescott showcased quality in his first season, and a fine stepping stone for the potential in years to come.
 

Super_Kazuya

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So you believe the statistic is showing that 15% of Romo's passes resulted in negative yardage behind the line of scrimmage, yes? And if it is yards gained, how do they have incomplete passes in the distance ranges?
I do not claim to know what it is... only what it is not. Romo only played for one drive in 2016 so I would think it would be easy for someone to chart that drive and then compare to see what we have.
 

glimmerman

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And we won't make a deep run. This team doesn't have the iron will needed at the HC level to actually do that. Yea we might have a good regular season, get into the playoffs and most likely lose in the first round. Jerry will reshuffle the deck chairs, maybe fire Linehan, maybe Marinelli and we will do it all over again.
At some point he has to realize it’s JG. If he doesn’t already. The team fights hard but just can’t get over the hump when it counts. Not a lot of killer instinct.
 

LandryFan

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Yea but people are still salty over Romo losing his job. It's not like we had a choice now was it? The guy kept getting hurt. Personally I'm glad that he got to exit the game and can stand on his own feet. God knows how many more hits it would have taken to land him in a wheelchair for life.
I thoroughly enjoyed watching Tony as our QB and consider myself privileged to have seen him play, but all players go away at some point. I'll root for Dak the same as I did for Tony. My opinion is that he will end up being an upper echelon QB that we will be glad plays for our team.
 

Ken

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Dak gets one more year to show that he can pilot the offense. His intangibles, leadership, and work ethic are all franchise caliber. Can he consistently deliver when he has to put the team on his back? He has had too many sub 200 yard performances for my liking-- and while others may blame the OL, Zeke suspension, Dez's attitude, WR corps issues, Witten's age, coaching staff etc... I tend to be a realist: Dak needs to play better in critical moments. Period.

He looks amazing for 24 games-- and terrifyingly pedestrian for 8 games. This season will reveal a lot about Dak. Hope he handles his business and proves the doubters wrong.
I will just put this out there...

Dak 9 game winning drives and 5 4th quarter comebacks in 32 games.

Wentz in 29 games: 2 and 2.

So i don't think performing when the chips are down is an issue.
 

Hawkeye19

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Okay, so kick Dak out and replace him with whom? Who is your golden child?

Kick him out? A little premature. Only way I do that is if he bombs this season and shows he is not a franchise QB and his development clearly plateaus. I abide by Parcells' philosophy of "you know the player after their 3rd year"-- so IMO we will know everything we need to know by the end of 2018 in order to make a decision one way or another.

In the event that Dak is not a franchise QB-- we need to move on as quickly as we can IMO. Rip the bandaid off. We need to find the QB of the future and start that process as soon as we know for certain Dak is not the answer. Hemming and hawing and wishing' and hopin' he is "lightning in a bottle" doesn't make it true. My biggest fear is that Jerry and Stephen have already decided that Dak is the answer and a long term contract is a forgone conclusion.

if we aren't careful-- we can financially hamstring the franchise for years by committing to the wrong QB. We HAVE to get this decision right-- even if that decision is to painfully admit we don't have a franchise QB on the roster and have to spend some time looking for one. Better that than to go into denial and look at Dak with rose-colored glasses on.

He has to produce this year. No excuses for Dak.
 

Aviano90

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I do not claim to know what it is... only what it is not. Romo only played for one drive in 2016 so I would think it would be easy for someone to chart that drive and then compare to see what we have.
But you claim to know what it is not? The actual labels for the stats are as follows:

Passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage
Passes thrown 1-10 yards
Passes thrown 11-20 yards
Passes thrown 21-30 yards
Passes thrown 31-40 yards
Passes thrown 41+ yards

They are not tracking completed passes and how many yards are gained in determining what "bucket" to put the pass attempt in. They are tracking how far the ball was thrown.

For example, Romo had 45 completions in 125 pass attempts in the 31-40 yard range for a total of 1968 yards. The average length of completion is 43.7 yards. According to your believe some of those completions would be tracked in the 41+ bucket.
 

OmerV

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CowboysZone ULTIMATE Fan
It appears Cowboys fans have become fascinated with deep passing since Dak took over as QB. I have compiled the career totals for Dak and Romo using data obtained on ESPN under "Splits" for each QB. It will list the passing stats based upon distance thrown. Here is what the breakdown looks like for the 2 QBs showing the % of total passes thrown for each distance followed by the completion % at each distance.

Romo
Behind LOS - 15.5% of total passes; 79.2% completion percentage
1-10 yards - 51.8% of total passes; 71.5% completion percentage
11-20 yards - 22% of total passes; 54.8% completion percentage
21-30 yards - 6.6% of total passes; 39.6% completion percentage
31-40 yards - 2.9% of total passes; 36% completion percentage
41+ yards - 1.1% of total passes; 28.6% completion percentage

Dak
Behind LOS - 14.2% of total passes; 84.5% completion percentage
1-10 yards - 54.8% of total passes; 70.7% completion percentage
11-20 yards - 22.2% of total passes; 53.0% completion percentage
21-30 yards - 5.6% of total passes; 37.3% completion percentage
31-40 yards - 2.5% of total passes; 34.8% completion percentage
41+ yards - 0.8% of total passes; 28.6% completion percentage

Dak's numbers are not too far off from what Romo's were for his career. It's not like our offense has been a deep pass juggernaut that stopped when Dak became the QB.

I'm glad you posted this. I always scratched my head when people talked about Romo as so much of a downfield passer. He really wasn't. Hell, the truth of the matter is Aikman wasn't either.
 

Hawkeye19

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I will just put this out there...

Dak 9 game winning drives and 5 4th quarter comebacks in 32 games.

Wentz in 29 games: 2 and 2.

So i don't think performing when the chips are down is an issue.

2018 will tell me everything I need to know about Dak. He has had some great games and I am not down on the guy. I am just not ready to roll up a brinks truck to his front door just yet. I want to see how he progresses this year.

If he is in the top 10 in terms of completion percentage and TD/INT ratio-- I'll be impressed. He is never going to put up Rodgers/Brees numbers in this run heavy offense-- but he does need to consistently be efficient and accurate with the football.
 

conner01

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I was going to mention that a more accurate comparison would be Romo's first two years vs Dak's first two years. Would make more sense, but would still be grasping at straws, somewhat...the team Tony had his first two years was obviously different than the team Dak had for his first two.
And Tony had two years to learn before he played which should give you an advantage
 

Hawkeye0202

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Who wanna bet a red penny the Stephen Jones and Jerry knows this and it just one of many reasons they are already thinking contract. What's interesting is many fans seem to have cooked a notion that this is Dak's prove it year but somehow I don't get the impression FO got that memo. It seems they are already sold......
 
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