Dak's Value and Russel Wilson's 1st Extension

[zerofill]

I would never have even remotely given Wilson $35mil... So I can guarantee I definitely wouldn't allow Dak to sniff that type of money.

When you are paying QBs that type of coin, I don't know how you win in the cap era... When they start making up 13% to 15% of your cap, that is just insane.

People can complain that the owners sure making enough off these guys.. But, the owners also aren't limited with a cap on how much they make.
That is just apples to oranges. What they make, has nothing to do with what they are allowed to spend.

 

[ItzKelz]

He's a $20 million a year type guy. He's not a franchise QB, but you can win with him.

That is what makes him a franchise QB.

 

[TexasHillbilly]

He will get minimum 27 million.

I'd prefer him in the 22-24 range, but life goes on.

Get what you can while you can. The more the merrier I always say. The nfl window is small so he better get all he can.

 

[stiletto]

Get what you can while you can. The more the merrier I always say. The nfl window is small so he better get all he can.

What's sad is to Jerry's bank account, giving Dak that kind of money is like you or me paying people to cut our grass one time or something. It's just a cap issue, not overall money issue to the Dallas Cowboys. Sickening. We're so poor.

 

[sean10mm]

Stafford hasn't won a thing in a decade and got $27m/year. Garoppolo barely played at all and got $27.5m/year. Kirk Cousins got $28m/year.

The numbers some of you guys are throwing around are deeply silly. You don't have to want Dak on the team, but he's not going to take less than Jimmy G, who never even made it through a single NFL season as a starter lol.

 

[mattjames2010]

He'll get near $30 mil. Blame goes on the rest of the league as well for creating this market.

Bus driver QBs should never get this kind of money.

 

[J12B]

Stafford hasn't won a thing in a decade and got $27m/year. Garoppolo barely played at all and got $27.5m/year. Kirk Cousins got $28m/year.

The numbers some of you guys are throwing around are deeply silly. You don't have to want Dak on the team, but he's not going to take less than Jimmy G, who never even made it through a single NFL season as a starter lol.

Stafford has always had poor talent around him...with the exception of Megatron.

Stafford is a great QB.

Weird thing is Nick Foles contract. 4 year/88 million and he's a Superbowl MVP and just led a team into the playoffs that had very little hopes with 4 weeks left of the regular season.

 

[dckid]

Most reasoning is sound, but its not 2015, its 2019. And unfortunately some fool doled out close to 30 million for Kousins and Garrappolo. And now 35 million for Wilson.

So I think it will wind up being more in the 27-28 million range per year.

Just wait and roll the dice. Don’t throw good money after bad money.
I’m ok paying a Russel Wilson, but there is nothing worst than overpaying a mid tier QB.
He should be happy making 20 million a year. Give him an out after 3 years. This will show we are willing to break the bank now and also later. We have to be smart about this.

 

[dckid]

He will get around 30 million and it will seal our fate for the next 5-7 years.

I would not overpay for Dak. He is not Brees, Russell,Arod, Rivers.
Let him get to FA, he has zero leverage we have the Franchuse Tag, please remember that.

 

[armadillooutlaw]

Stafford has always had poor talent around him...with the exception of Megatron.

Stafford is a great QB.

Weird thing is Nick Foles contract. 4 year/88 million and he's a Superbowl MVP and just led a team into the playoffs that had very little hopes with 4 weeks left of the regular season.

Think Foles took that deal because the Jags have a great Defense and Fornette at RB?

 

[sean10mm]

Foles's deal can pay him up to $102m actually.

 

[dckid]

25 mil AAV right now would be a "steal".

28 probably would be a fair number.

What's I'm more interested in is how much, percentile, is guaranteed. Cousins got 100% guaranted, Rodgers got 73%, Jimmy G got 54%, Ryan at 66% etc...

To me the % guaranteed is not that important for QB contracts because if the guy is good the team will not let him go.
These guys will get all the money, in years 3,4 and 5 the money just gets converted to a bonus and paid out to the player. I haven’t seen the improvement passing wise I. Dak from year 1 through 3.

 

[dckid]

Think Foles took that deal because the Jags have a great Defense and Fornette at RB?

Pay Dak the Foles deal. Even though Dak hasn’t sniffed a SB. Personally I don’t think Dak can play at Foles level durin that SB run. Foles was on fire. The man outplayed Brady!!

 

[dckid]

Stafford hasn't won a thing in a decade and got $27m/year. Garoppolo barely played at all and got $27.5m/year. Kirk Cousins got $28m/year.

The numbers some of you guys are throwing around are deeply silly. You don't have to want Dak on the team, but he's not going to take less than Jimmy G, who never even made it through a single NFL season as a starter lol.

The Niners FO was stupid, that doesn’t mean Jerry has to be. Jimmy got paid because SF was desperate. They needed a face for the organization and they were in love with the guy.
There is really no good answer, I guess I just have an an average opinion of Dak. He doesnt pass the eye test for me.
I am usually always in favor of the player getting paid as careers are so short. Just look at Boogue Cousins from the Warriors . He was an All NBA guy who tore his achillles and now a Quad. He would have gotten the max before these injuries. You never know with any player so I have. I personal ill will to Dak. I just don’t know what makes sense for the Cowboys. I know the cap is in in good shape but every other contract other than QB is something g a team can get out of.

 

[Section446]

That is what makes him a franchise QB.

No, you win because of franchise QB's, we win in spite of Dak.

 

[ItzKelz]

No, you win because of franchise QB's, we win in spite of Dak.

You havent watched Cowboys football if you are making such a statement. We would not have the second most wins in the NFL since Dak took over to the cripple Romo if Dak was not our QB. #facts

 

[JW82]

I think you are spot on, but I can see the contract looking like a 6 year 160 contract but really being your 4/104 with a team out in year 5 if they wanted.

On July 31, 2015, Russel Wilson signed a contract extension worth 87.6 million/61.5 million guaranteed for 4 years with the Seattle Seahawks. This was after winning a Superbowl several months earlier of course and as he was entering the final year of his rookie deal. Wilson did everything he needed to do and had the LOB playing on the other side and a dominating RB, Marshawn Lynch, behind him.

Let's take a look at Wilson's first 3 year's in the league and compare them to Dak's first 3 years:

Wilson - Passing
2012 26TD, 10INT, 3118 yards, 64.1%, 7.9AVG
2013 26TD, 9INT, 3357 yards, 63.1%, 8.2AVG
2014 20TD, 7INT, 3457 yards, 63.1%, 7.7AVG

Dak - Passing
2016 23TD, 4INT, 3,667 yards, 67.8%, 8.0 AVG
2017 22TD, 13INT, 3324 yards, 62.9%, 6.8 AVG
2018 22TD, 8INT, 3885 yards, 67.7%, 7.4 AVG

What about running the ball as a QB?

Wilson - Rushing
2012 489 yards, 5.2 AVG, 4TD, 2Fumbles
2013 539 yards, 5.6 AVG, 1TD, 2Fumbles
2014 849 yards, 7.2 AVG, 6TD, 5Fumbles

Dak - Rushing
2016 282 yards, 4.9 AVG, 6TD, 3Fumbles
2017 357 yards, 6.3 AVG, 6TD, 0Fumbles
2018 305 yards, 4.1 AVG, 6TD, 4Fumbles

Based on these numbers, I'd say Wilson had a better start to his career-but- Dak is certainly close. Dak might even have an argument that he is the better passer as he out produced Wilson in yards and percentage completion. Wilson is far more mobile compared to Dak. But again, Dak is close in effectiveness.

So, Wilson's 2015 deal should be a benchmark in determining Dak's value today. The QB market has changed with a couple of teams overpaying in free agency (49ers and Garappolo, Vikings and Cousins), but hopefully those deals do not influence Dak's deal all that much.

My guess is a 4 year 104 million/75 million guaranteed deal is happening fairly soon, definitely before the start of the season for the Quarteback of the Dallas Cowboys.

 

[sunalsorises]

Stafford has always had poor talent around him...with the exception of Megatron.

Stafford is a great QB.

Weird thing is Nick Foles contract. 4 year/88 million and he's a Superbowl MVP and just led a team into the playoffs that had very little hopes with 4 weeks left of the regular season.

I wonder how much of the lack of talent around Stafford is because of how much of the cap his contract is.

 

[PJTHEDOORS]

No, you win because of franchise QB's, we win in spite of Dak.

And we lose (vs Rams) in spite of Zeke and our defense.

 

[DallasEast]

You can't compare 2015 contract numbers to 2019 contract numbers. There has been way too much salary cap inflation since then.

2015 salary cap: $143m
2019 salary cap: $188m (+31%)

So ONLY based on the salary cap itself going up, Wilson's 2015 contract in 2019 actually works out to 4 years/$115m ($81m guaranteed), $29m per.

But that's actually understating it a little.

Why? Because the % of the cap spent on quarterbacks compared to all other positions has gone up, too. So not only has the salary cap pie gotten bigger, but quarterbacks on average have taken a bigger share of that bigger pie. So that number I posted isn't really the 2019 version of the 2015 contract - it's still a bit too small. Making matters worse, there are really only two kinds of QB contract you see now - dirt cheap (for rookies and "Ryan Leaf on oxycontin" tier failures) and gigantic (for everyone else).

Kirk "0-1 in the playoffs" Cousins got $84m GUARANTEED from just a 3 year contract lmao, there is no way Dak is taking $45m guaranteed over 4 years. This isn't even a comment on how good Dak is, it's just the reality of the market.

Good, sound analysis from a financial perspective.