Defensive Comparison, 2014 v 2015

percyhoward

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Could it be that we miss Carter and Durant more than we expected?
What we missed this year were 1) our 2014 offense, and 2) our 2014 schedule.

We suffered from not having an offense that allowed us to play with a lead most of the time, forcing the opponent to take more risks which would have led to many more takeaways. Last year, 16 of our defense's 30 takeaways happened when we were leading by 10 points or more. That includes 5 of the 7 takeaways by Carter and Durant. In all other situations in 2014 -- when we weren't leading by at least 10 points -- we only had 14 takeaways. We simply didn't have enough big leads this year to make our opponents take chances.

Cowboys
snaps when leading by 10+ points / takeaways

2014: 376 / 16 (4.3%)
2015: 84 / 3 (3.6%)

all other snaps
2014: 602 / 14 (2.3%)
2015: 851 / 8 (0.9%)

The difference on all the other plays (more "normal" game situations when we weren't up by 10+ points) can almost be completely explained away by the schedule of teams we faced. They didn't turn it over much against us because they didn't turn it over much against anybody. In contrast, the teams we faced last year were turnover machines for the most part.

Games against teams ranked in bottom 10 / middle 12 / top 10 in fewest turnovers
2014: 12 / 2 / 2
2015: 4 / 7 / 5
 
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DanteEXT

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The lack of takeaways sucks, but there's no reason to blow up your defense based on something that only happens on 6-19% of all plays league-wide, as takeaways do.

With an offensive performance equal to last year's (minus the scores after a takeaway), this year's defense would have been good enough to get the team into the top 6 in points per drive differential. That means we'd be about 11-4 right now, certainly no worse than 10-5. Defense wasn't the problem at all.

Keep this year's offense, add last year's takeaways, and this year's team would be 8-7 or 7-8. But 9 of our defense's 30 takeaways last year happened on the 164 plays when we led by more than one score in the 4th quarter. The 2015 team wouldn't have that many big leads late, even with the advantage of the other 21 takeaways. We'd probably be 6-9 right now and trying to stay ahead of the Lions for the 13th pick. .

Looking at it that way, the lack of takeaways is a blessing in disguise.

Amazing what happens when an offense can put up points. If I remember rights teams were passing 65+% of the time last year in the 4th. I think it's less than 50% but I haven't checked for a couple weeks.
 

Cebrin

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Dallas Defense
Points Allowed Per Drive

2014
60.5% when leading 1.86
23.3% when trailing 2.10
16.2% when tied 1.75
avg points on all drives 1.89

2015
42.2% when leading 1.94
29.9% when trailing 2.17
27.9% when tied 1.67
avg points on all drives 1.93

The first number indicates the percentage of total drives represented by that subset of drives. For example, in 2014, 60.5% of our opponents' possessions happened when the Cowboys were leading in the game. This year, we've only had the lead during 42.2% of our opponents' drives.

The number at the end of each line is the opponents' average points scored on that subset of drives. For example, in 2014, when we were leading in the game, we gave up 1.86 points per drive. This year when we've been leading we've allowed 1.94 points per drive. That's a difference of only about a point every 12 drives, or a point per game when we're leading.

The bottom line is the average points allowed on any drive, regardless of the score. We've allowed slightly more points per drive in 2015 (1.93) than in 2014 (1.89). We've given up slightly fewer points per game this year (20.1) than last year (20.6), because we've faced fewer drives due to our offense leading the NFL in time of average possession.

The one number that really surprised me was that we've been trailing in the game on less than 30% of our opponents' possessions this year. It seems like we were playing from behind more often than that, but it turns out we weren't. The average score margin at the beginning of an opponent's drive was actually a .01-point lead for Dallas (a tie game, in other words).

All of the above comes from information available at Pro Football Reference. These numbers only count scores by the opposing offense. No return touchdowns of any kind. (If you're wondering, I did not count the Saints' FG after the defense had forced a punt and the 12-man penalty on ST put them in FG range.) Most of the following is straight from Football Outsiders, who say we had the league's 16th-most difficult schedule of offenses to face this year, after facing the 2nd-easiest in 2014.

Opponents' Average Drive
starting field position
2014 26.8 yd line (13th)
2015 27.7 yd line (20th)

drive success rate
(percentage of down series that resulted in a 1st down)
2014 .702 (24th)
2015 .704 (20th)

yards
2014 32.5 (27th)
2015 32.5 (20th)

points per red zone possession
2014 4.90 (22nd)
2015 4.72 (8th)

punts
2014 .385 (25th)
2015 .442 (11th)

3-and-outs
2014 .207 (20th)
2015 .231 (13th)

turnovers
2014 .172 (1st)
2015 .064 (32nd)


If there were no such thing as turnovers, this year's defense would be better than last year's. For whatever that's worth.

points (drive did NOT end in a turnover)
2014 2.29
2015 2.12

If we don't get a takeaway against the Skins, the Cowboys' 11 takeaways would equal the fewest ever in a season, and also tie the record for most games in a season with no takeaways (9).

Like last year's defense, this year's gave up a lot of yards, but not a lot of points. But the similarities end there. The 2014 defense was not good at all in the red zone, and depended on takeaways or keeping the opponent out of Dallas territory. The 2015 version has been more of a true bend-don't-break defense that starved for takeaways, and allowed the opponent into FG range more often, but then turned into one of the league's best in the red zone. This red zone success was aided by the fact that our opponents have been more conservative this year, running the ball on 55% of their plays as opposed to 42% last year in the red zone.

Harder to get those takeaways when there is no real pressure on the opposing team to score. You can beat Dallas with Field Goals. Had we scored touchdowns and put pressure on the opposing team to catch up, more opportunities for forced errors would have been available for sure.
 

percyhoward

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Biggems

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When you go through 4 QBs in a season and are ranked 32nd in turnovers, it hurts an already struggling offense.

What a strange year. I'm ready for 2016.

It doesn't help that the WRs had so much trouble getting open, and when they did, there were several drops.
 

jobberone

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The TOs produced when other teams pressed to come back will return if we get pressure and develop a better back 7.

I hope they look for some CBs who can cover AND tackle. We need some long DBs.
 
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