Galian Beast
Well-Known Member
- Messages
- 14,735
- Reaction score
- 7,457
A couple of problems here and there, but they've done a wonderful job on day 1. They knock out some punch list items and this is the premier streaming service hands down.
They'll get steady subscribers just from parents of kids that love to rewatch the same movies over and over and over againBecause of the massive library they have, I am not surprised that it will be popular right from the start.
The real test comes a year from now after everyone has watched and rewatched everything they are interested in and shift their focus to wanting new content.
Netflix has already experienced this which is why they have been shifting into focusing and spending a lot of money on new content.
The "Star Wars" genre is already declining in popularity due to saturation and overall disappointment and/or dissatisfaction with many of the more recent productions and the popularity of the Marvel universe with mainstream consumers seems to have peaked as well. Those two properties are still popular of course, but for Disney to do well in 2021 and beyond, they will need a lot more than just "more Star Wars, Marvel, etc." productions.
Don't get me wrong though. I am glad that Disney+ is launching because the market needs a large competitor to counter Netflix.
The other streaming services that are relying on their own smaller libraries will not be a real threat to Netflix even if they pull their libraries off of Netflix to make them exclusive in their own services. Eventually, they will realize they will make a lot more money licensing those properties (movies, tv shows, etc.) to the large streaming services like Netflix, Disney+, etc. than if they keep them exclusive to their own services.
Because of the massive library they have, I am not surprised that it will be popular right from the start.
The real test comes a year from now after everyone has watched and rewatched everything they are interested in and shift their focus to wanting new content.
Netflix has already experienced this which is why they have been shifting into focusing and spending a lot of money on new content.
The "Star Wars" genre is already declining in popularity due to saturation and overall disappointment and/or dissatisfaction with many of the more recent productions and the popularity of the Marvel universe with mainstream consumers seems to have peaked as well. Those two properties are still popular of course, but for Disney to do well in 2021 and beyond, they will need a lot more than just "more Star Wars, Marvel, etc." productions.
Don't get me wrong though. I am glad that Disney+ is launching because the market needs a large competitor to counter Netflix.
The other streaming services that are relying on their own smaller libraries will not be a real threat to Netflix even if they pull their libraries off of Netflix to make them exclusive in their own services. Eventually, they will realize they will make a lot more money licensing those properties (movies, tv shows, etc.) to the large streaming services like Netflix, Disney+, etc. than if they keep them exclusive to their own services.
Actually, most people do not have Netflix for just the Office and Friends. Those are "filler" shows that have been rewatched a lot by most people. If someone was going to pay for Netflix for something like that, they could go buy the BluRay or DVD collections of both of those shows for a lot less money.I don't think someone could watch everything in a year and on top of that, they have even more content rolling out in the next couple of years that they can't post name because of distribution rights.
There are people who have Netflix just because of the Office and Friends. Disney has so much more than that with Star Wars + Disney + Marvel.
They have a bigger library than Netflix. At least at their disposal and more popular titles. What they lack is original modern high end TV series .
Until those kids get a little older of course.They'll get steady subscribers just from parents of kids that love to rewatch the same movies over and over and over again
Actually, most people do not have Netflix for just the Office and Friends. Those are "filler" shows that have been rewatched a lot by most people. If someone was going to pay for Netflix for something like that, they could go buy the BluRay or DVD collections of both of those shows for a lot less money.
As I mentioned in my post, most Disney+ fans promote Star Wars and Marvel properties as the main draws for the service, but as I also mentioned, both of those are on the decline. Star Wars has been in such a decline that Disney has been cancelling some of their planned new Star Wars projects and even their highly promoted Star Wars Galaxy's Edge Disney World park has had disappointing numbers.
Both properties are still popular, but Star Wars has been fading for a while and the popularity of the Marvel universe has peaked as well with average consumers.
I am sure Disney+ will be popular and we will see all kinds of articles on the success of Disney+ for the next year because Disney has a vast library of not-yet-binge-watched tv shows and movies to consume, but by 2021 (after yearly subscriptions at launch, free subscriptions via promotional programs like Verizon, and those given as Christmas gifts expire), I expect Disney+ will start seeing a drop in subscription numbers.
Then it will completely depend on what new content Disney is creating compared to new content being created on other services like Netflix.
As I said, I am not down on Disney+ nor am I a Netflix subscriber. I just know that the main draws for Disney+ are their vast libraries of kids content along with Star Wars and Marvel and I the latter of those are already saturated and declining in popularity with average people.
Kids and parents will of course like the kids content until their kids outgrow it and the die-hard fans of the Star Wars and Marvel Universes will love and subscribe to Disney+ for years to come.
For most people though, the old shows and movies are great filler content, but ultimately, new content is what keeps the subscriptions coming and new Star Wars and Marvel content is not nearly enough to keep the average person interested in paying for one service over another.
The Star Wars fan base is dominated by an older demographic and their loyalty and interest is more on the original 4/5/6 movie based characters and story lines. Again, that's not saying no one else likes it, but most 30 and under people do not consider Star Wars movies, shows, etc. as anything other than yet another space movie/show.People can certainly buy the office and/or friends, the reality is that they don't. You downplay the importance and viewership of those shows to netflix.
Marvel is in decline? Based on what? Disney cancelled some of their garbage Star Wars spinoffs, but the franchise continues to make money.
We'll revisit this topic in 2 years time.
Just read they're even sending R-rated Marvel movies like Deadpool to Hulu, which is Disney's adult alternative. I couldn't imagine any adult spending money on Disney+
They'll get steady subscribers just from parents of kids that love to rewatch the same movies over and over and over again
Exactly! The older rerun/syndicated content is fine for filler content, but it's the new content and frequency of it that keeps people interested. It's not even always about quality, but just having something new to watch regularly.Youtube is killing this.
My 4 year old and 2 year old want to watch honeyheartsc on youtube and couldnt care less about tv shows on netflix or movies right now.
And Disney is using the episodic TV model, not the Netflix and Amazon, which I prefer. I record all of the HBO series and watch them when I want to see them, except GoT, no way to dodge spoilers on that.Exactly! The older rerun/syndicated content is fine for filler content, but it's the new content and frequency of it that keeps people interested. It's not even always about quality, but just having something new to watch regularly.
I tend to do the same thing. Years ago, I used to buy the seasons of shows I watched on DVD every year and watch them instead of the weekly episodes because I hated episodic cliff-hangers, especially the mid-season December-January hiatus kind.And Disney is using the episodic TV model, not the Netflix and Amazon, which I prefer. I record all of the HBO series and watch them when I want to see them, except GoT, no way to dodge spoilers on that.