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1:35 PM Fri, Sep 26, 2008 | Permalink | Yahoo! Buzz
Tim MacMahon http://www.***BANNED-URL***/blogs/images/email-icon.jpg E-mail http://www.***BANNED-URL***/blogs/images/email-icon.jpg News tips
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Bill Barnwell, a contributing editor at footballoutsiders.com and one of the minds behind the must-read Pro Football Prospectus, will answer five Cowboys questions each week of the season using the FO data and methodologies. Here's the Week 4 edition:
1. Two of Tony Romo's three interceptions this season have come inside the 20. What kind of numbers has he put up in the red zone last season?
Last year, Romo wasn't great in the red zone. The Cowboys' DVOA when throwing the ball in the red zone was 18th in the league; when running the ball, it was fifth. This year, owing to the interceptions, they're 30th when throwing the ball and ninth when running the ball.
It's hard to say why that is. It's certainly not a reason to get on Romo, considering the team's ability to pick up long touchdowns.
2. Bradie James believes he's a Pro Bowl-caliber inside linebacker. What do the stats say?
There's no statistic we've seen that suggests James is anything but a very decent linebacker. Last year, he made 13.2% of his team's plays, 43rd amongst linebackers. He had 15 defeats, plays where he stopped a player from getting a first down on third or fourth down, stopped a player behind the line of scrimmage, forced a fumble, or intercepted the ball -- that's a good number, but certainly not an elite number. He had a Stop Rate -- the inverse of our Success Rate (which requires a team to gain 45 percent of the needed yardage on first down, 60 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third down) -- of 72%, which was 19th in the league; as a whole, though, he made his average tackle 3.4 yards away from the line of scrimmage, only 53rd amongst linebackers. In coverage, he succeeded 55% of the time, 28th in the league for linebackers, and the 6.3 yards they gained per pass were 54th.
That's a lot of stats, but the point is that none of them stand out as league-leading or Pro Bowl-worthy. James also has the benefit of being surrounded by a great defense, as opposed to someone like a DeMeco Ryans, who has a couple of elite defensive players and then a half-dozen awful ones to work with. Not every Cowboys defender gets to make the Pro Bowl.
3. You've mentioned that the Cowboys were atrocious covering tight ends last season. How do they rank in the key Football Outsiders statistical measures vs. tight ends this season?
They really struggled, but they had weird splits over the previous few seasons. They were 30th in 2007, 8th in 2006, but then 31st in 2005. Remember also that DVOA, the metric we're using to track this, is adjusted for opponent -- so blaming it on having to play Jeremy Shockey and Chris Cooley four times doesn't work.
That being said, they're back up to 12th this year. They've had some dramatically disparate performances against tight ends. In Week 1, Kellen Winslow caught five of six passes to him, with all five being "successful" plays (meeting the requirements for yardage on specific downs explained above).
In Week 2, L.J. Smith caught only one pass of three, and none were successful, while Brent Celek was one for one.
Last week, Donald Lee caught all five passes thrown to him; four of them picked up the required yardage to be successful.
So, in other words, they're 12th, but I wouldn't be too thrilled about their performance so far, considering tight ends have been successful almost constantly.
4. Wade Phillips made sure everybody knew that Adam "Pacman" Jones wasn't to blame for Donald Driver's 50-yard reception, not so subtly pointing the finger at Ken Hamlin. How has Hamlin performed in pass coverage as a Cowboy?
Not bad, although a lot of the data we have is colored by the fact that he's across from Roy Williams. Hamlin was only targeted on 7% of his team's throws last year, 35th in the league; Williams was the second-most targeted player in the league.
He's succeeded 45% of the time, which is 53rd in the league, but those passes only allowed a very respectable 6.3 yards per attempt. I think Hamlin's a very solid guy in coverage, especially at keeping stuff in front of him. With Williams out, though, any excuses for not being an excellent safety are out the window -- if Hamlin's really a Pro Bowler, this is when he has to show it.
5. What's a matchup against the Commanders that should worry Dallas fans?
I think it has to be Chris Cooley versus Patrick Watkins. In his two games against the Cowboys last year, Cooley had 13 catches for 131 yards and a touchdown. If the Cowboys keep Watkins away from the line of scrimmage, they're going to have to deal with Clinton Portis and the Skins' impressive offensive line; either way, there's going to be a bad matchup in there somewhere.
Tim MacMahon http://www.***BANNED-URL***/blogs/images/email-icon.jpg E-mail http://www.***BANNED-URL***/blogs/images/email-icon.jpg News tips
http://cowboysblog.***BANNED-URL***/NS_16stockJS-thumb-250x134.jpg
Bill Barnwell, a contributing editor at footballoutsiders.com and one of the minds behind the must-read Pro Football Prospectus, will answer five Cowboys questions each week of the season using the FO data and methodologies. Here's the Week 4 edition:
1. Two of Tony Romo's three interceptions this season have come inside the 20. What kind of numbers has he put up in the red zone last season?
Last year, Romo wasn't great in the red zone. The Cowboys' DVOA when throwing the ball in the red zone was 18th in the league; when running the ball, it was fifth. This year, owing to the interceptions, they're 30th when throwing the ball and ninth when running the ball.
It's hard to say why that is. It's certainly not a reason to get on Romo, considering the team's ability to pick up long touchdowns.
2. Bradie James believes he's a Pro Bowl-caliber inside linebacker. What do the stats say?
There's no statistic we've seen that suggests James is anything but a very decent linebacker. Last year, he made 13.2% of his team's plays, 43rd amongst linebackers. He had 15 defeats, plays where he stopped a player from getting a first down on third or fourth down, stopped a player behind the line of scrimmage, forced a fumble, or intercepted the ball -- that's a good number, but certainly not an elite number. He had a Stop Rate -- the inverse of our Success Rate (which requires a team to gain 45 percent of the needed yardage on first down, 60 percent on second down, and 100 percent on third down) -- of 72%, which was 19th in the league; as a whole, though, he made his average tackle 3.4 yards away from the line of scrimmage, only 53rd amongst linebackers. In coverage, he succeeded 55% of the time, 28th in the league for linebackers, and the 6.3 yards they gained per pass were 54th.
That's a lot of stats, but the point is that none of them stand out as league-leading or Pro Bowl-worthy. James also has the benefit of being surrounded by a great defense, as opposed to someone like a DeMeco Ryans, who has a couple of elite defensive players and then a half-dozen awful ones to work with. Not every Cowboys defender gets to make the Pro Bowl.
3. You've mentioned that the Cowboys were atrocious covering tight ends last season. How do they rank in the key Football Outsiders statistical measures vs. tight ends this season?
They really struggled, but they had weird splits over the previous few seasons. They were 30th in 2007, 8th in 2006, but then 31st in 2005. Remember also that DVOA, the metric we're using to track this, is adjusted for opponent -- so blaming it on having to play Jeremy Shockey and Chris Cooley four times doesn't work.
That being said, they're back up to 12th this year. They've had some dramatically disparate performances against tight ends. In Week 1, Kellen Winslow caught five of six passes to him, with all five being "successful" plays (meeting the requirements for yardage on specific downs explained above).
In Week 2, L.J. Smith caught only one pass of three, and none were successful, while Brent Celek was one for one.
Last week, Donald Lee caught all five passes thrown to him; four of them picked up the required yardage to be successful.
So, in other words, they're 12th, but I wouldn't be too thrilled about their performance so far, considering tight ends have been successful almost constantly.
4. Wade Phillips made sure everybody knew that Adam "Pacman" Jones wasn't to blame for Donald Driver's 50-yard reception, not so subtly pointing the finger at Ken Hamlin. How has Hamlin performed in pass coverage as a Cowboy?
Not bad, although a lot of the data we have is colored by the fact that he's across from Roy Williams. Hamlin was only targeted on 7% of his team's throws last year, 35th in the league; Williams was the second-most targeted player in the league.
He's succeeded 45% of the time, which is 53rd in the league, but those passes only allowed a very respectable 6.3 yards per attempt. I think Hamlin's a very solid guy in coverage, especially at keeping stuff in front of him. With Williams out, though, any excuses for not being an excellent safety are out the window -- if Hamlin's really a Pro Bowler, this is when he has to show it.
5. What's a matchup against the Commanders that should worry Dallas fans?
I think it has to be Chris Cooley versus Patrick Watkins. In his two games against the Cowboys last year, Cooley had 13 catches for 131 yards and a touchdown. If the Cowboys keep Watkins away from the line of scrimmage, they're going to have to deal with Clinton Portis and the Skins' impressive offensive line; either way, there's going to be a bad matchup in there somewhere.
