Does 1845 YDs Properly Grade Murray's Worth at RB?

[DallasEast]

In another thread, a brief discussion arose about how good DeMarco Murray was as a running back. Murray's single season rushing record (SSRR) was used as a qualifier to label him as a special running back. His single season accomplishment is not debatable but will the feat translate into the type of productivity (mainly for yardage gained) associated with so-called special running backs over the course of his career? Or in the short-term? To get better feel for how a monster rushing seasons might influence a running back's productivity, I compiled a list of running backs who exceeded Murray's 2014 rushing mark. There have been only fifteen running backs who ran for more yards in a single season than Murray in NFL history. Barry Sanders eclipsed Murray's rushing mark twice so the total of running backs with greater SSRR's is not sixteen.

Below are graphic representations of rushing totals of each running back belonging to the exclusive 1,845 rushing yards or more in a single season club during their first four seasons alongside Murray's. Notable absences from the list are Hall of Famers Emmitt Smith, Tony Dorsett, Marcus Allen, Thurman Thomas, Jim Taylor, Marshall Faulk, John Riggins, Franco Harris, and Curtis Martin. Of the fifteen running backs making the cut, Tiki Barber, O.J. Simpson, Ahmad Green, and Ricky Williams' careers mirrored Murray's somewhat the most in their first four seasons. Barber's and Simpson's SSRR and best years followed their fourth professional season. Green's SSRR came in his sixth pro season and his best years began before that year. The same goes for Williams but his SSRR came in his fourth season like Murray. All but Barber's productivity declined later in their careers as expected, but their decline was significant. Simpson and Green's productivity was remarkable mid-career. Hopefully, Murray's productivity will mimic Simpson's and Green's while continuing to elevate like Barber's during his career's latter half.

Murray's career did not start fast out the gate like Barry Sanders or Adrian Peterson, but he might enjoy the same type of productive longevity as they did/have (hopefully Peterson will get his back on track). He certainly did not explode onto the scene his first four seasons and eclipsed his 1,845 yards by his fourth season like Terrell Davis. Let's all hope Murray's career does not crash and burn in similar fashion after this season. Bad knees are a running back's worst enemy. Murray's single season record puts him in elite company. It may not prove how special a running back he is right now and may ultimately become, but it suggests his potential to capitalize upon it in a huge way over the next several seasons at least.

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Okay. Smith's comparison is shown too. I lied. Sue me.

 

[TwoDeep3]

Here is the question. Behind questionable lines, what was his yards per carry average? Around 5.

It would be phenomenal if he were to hang another 1800 out there next year. The naysayers suggest he had too many carries and he will significantly drop off. Some of these same naysayers are touting Peterson, who in twice the time in the NFL has roughly 10% more carries.

The argument is he is slow. I'm not sure how a guy who posted 1800+ yards can answer that. But games are not won by long runs but by moving chains on third down. This is a third down league, a third down game.

Perhaps the best argument for Murray is the comments by the other players who are on the field with him. You know those guys, right? They aren't internet GMs or internet Scouts who toss out these bromides about the game has gotten away from the RB and RBs are a dime a doze,. Or let's draft player X and we'll be fine.

These are also the people who believe allowing a play maker to go to another team is a wise move because of money.

I suggest these are also the people who fail to recognize that Romo is at the back side of his career and when he fails, it won't make a hoot in hell what RB you have.

The opportunity is now.

 

[DallasEast]

It would be phenomenal if he were to hang another 1800 out there next year.

I don't understand. Has anyone posted their expectation that Murray will run for 1,800 next season?

 

[TwoDeep3]

I don't understand. Has anyone posted their expectation that Murray will run for 1,800 next season?

The majority say he will drop off. Not sure what that means. If he runs for 1450 that can be significant.

 

[DallasEast]

The majority say he will drop off. Not sure what that means. If he runs for 1450 that can be significant.

Majority? Is the "majority" a few posters who say his numbers will decline? Or are there a few more posters actively saying he will drop off than there are a few less posters saying he won't?

Apologies. I'm literal. I read "majority" on a forum with thousands of members and expect to see hundreds of posts representing the term.

I'm not sure what people expect beyond what running backs have always demonstrated throughout the history of football. Season rushing totals are fluid. Even running backs labeled as the best ever have recorded peaks and valleys in their seasonal output during the prime of their careers.

I hope no one misconstrues my OP. Another poster (not you) countered someone's opinion that Murray was not a special running back by using Murray's exceptional performance this past season as a qualifier. I believe Murray is a very good running back. My thread was meant to spark discussion of how members applied his great year to his overall worth as a running back.

 

[perrykemp]

Last 6 guys to run for roughly as many yards as Murray did season all had drop offs -- most of them substantial, for various reasons, the next year:

2012 - 2013: Adrian Peterson: 2097 yards to 1266 yards -> 831 yard drop
2009 - 2010: Chris Johnson: 2006 yards to 1364 -> 642 yard drop
2005 - 2006: Sean Alexander: 1880 yards to 896 -> 984 yard drop
2005 - 2006: Tiki Barber: 1860 yards to 1662 -> 198 yard drop
2003 - 2004 Ahman Green: 1883 yards to 1163 -> 720 yard drop
2003 - 2004 Jamal Lewis: 2066 yards to 1006 -> 1060 yard drop

Maybe Murray is the rare guy who doesn't have the big drop off after the amount of carries/yards he had. If so, he's be one of the very rare few who maintain their performance.

Looking at the top rushing performances in NFL history -- most all of them in the past 10 years or so have been followed by steep drops.

The question remains -- do you pay Murray for past performance? Somebody will - maybe Tampa Bay.

 

[Toruk_Makto]

What's funny is you assume a running back who isn't slow as dirt can't pick up 3rd and short. That's a false choice.

And the time IS now. And that's why you don't invest heavily on a fungible position like rb.

I love Murray. I hope he gets every cent he can. I hope it's with the Colts.

 

[DallasEast]

Last 6 guys to run for roughly as many yards as Murray did season all had drop offs -- most of them substantial, for various reasons, the next year:

2012 - 2013: Adrian Peterson: 2097 yards to 1266 yards -> 831 yard drop
2009 - 2010: Chris Johnson: 2006 yards to 1364 -> 642 yard drop
2005 - 2006: Sean Alexander: 1880 yards to 896 -> 984 yard drop
2005 - 2006: Tiki Barber: 1860 yards to 1662 -> 198 yard drop
2003 - 2004 Ahman Green: 1883 yards to 1163 -> 720 yard drop
2003 - 2004 Jamal Lewis: 2066 yards to 1006 -> 1060 yard drop

Maybe Murray is the rare guy who doesn't have the big drop off after the amount of carries/yards he had. If so, he's be one of the very rare few who maintain their performance.

Looking at the top rushing performances in NFL history -- most all of them in the past 10 years or so have been followed by steep drops.

The question remains -- do you pay Murray for past performance? Somebody will - maybe Tampa Bay.

I kinda see where TD3 is coming from now.

 

[Manwiththeplan]

I don't understand. Has anyone posted their expectation that Murray will run for 1,800 next season?

No, and to be honest, I don't think the offense would miss a beat if he only ran for 1500

 

[Craig]

What's funny is you assume a running back who isn't slow as dirt can't pick up 3rd and short. That's a false choice.

And the time IS now. And that's why you don't invest heavily on a fungible position like rb.

I love Murray. I hope he gets every cent he can. I hope it's with the Colts.

Yeah if the time is now, you dont go into the season throwing money at rb and you dont want to go with a guy that just took on a giant workload last season.

 

[DallasEast]

No, and to be honest, I don't think the offense would miss a beat if he only ran for 1500

Perhaps the offense will be as effective if he ran for only 1,100 yards.

Individual rushing totals are not definitive. How well the offense executes during downs when it runs the ball is.

 

[Texas_Pete]

Yards per carry since he was drafted: 5.5, 4.1, 5.2, 4.7. He averages a whopping 4.8 ypc - for his career. This year he had the most rushes in his career - he still averaged 4.7 ypc.

LINK: http://www.nfl.com/player/demarcomurray/2495207/careerstats

So, for those who say the improvement of our OL resulted in his monster year - you guys are partially correct. He was finally healthy and the OL improved. It was quite symbiotic.

He averaged good ypc even before we had 3 OL pro bowlers. That tells me that he is not only special, he's elite. We'd be foolish to think we can easily replace him. Especially considering he pass protects and he has good hands out of the backfield. I for one hope he stays.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I'd like to see charts for all these backs for the following 3 seasons.

 

[Nightman]

Last 6 guys to run for roughly as many yards as Murray did season all had drop offs -- most of them substantial, for various reasons, the next year:

2012 - 2013: Adrian Peterson: 2097 yards to 1266 yards -> 831 yard drop
2009 - 2010: Chris Johnson: 2006 yards to 1364 -> 642 yard drop
2005 - 2006: Sean Alexander: 1880 yards to 896 -> 984 yard drop
2005 - 2006: Tiki Barber: 1860 yards to 1662 -> 198 yard drop
2003 - 2004 Ahman Green: 1883 yards to 1163 -> 720 yard drop
2003 - 2004 Jamal Lewis: 2066 yards to 1006 -> 1060 yard drop

Maybe Murray is the rare guy who doesn't have the big drop off after the amount of carries/yards he had. If so, he's be one of the very rare few who maintain their performance.

Looking at the top rushing performances in NFL history -- most all of them in the past 10 years or so have been followed by steep drops.

The question remains -- do you pay Murray for past performance? Somebody will - maybe Tampa Bay.

There are a lot of factors to consider when you look at why their performance dropped off. Some was usage, some was injury, some was performance, some was luck. But a lot of it is just the fact that 1800 yds rushing is hard to reach. A lot of factors have to go right to reach that number once, to expect a repeat is like expecting Manning to throw for 50 TDs every year since he did it once.

I expect Murray to rush for at least 1500 yds next year and that is what I would be paying for, not what he did last year. If you think 1500 yds is insignificant because it is less than 1800 yds then that is nit picking imo

Emmitt, Dickerson, Tomlinson, Payton, Barber, Sanders all strung together several years of top production with tons of touches. Some years they went up a little, some years they went down a little. But to act like RBs can't string together several goods years of top production is just a mistake.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

There are a lot of factors to consider when you look at why their performance dropped off. Some was usage, some was injury, some was performance, some was luck. But a lot of it is just the fact that 1800 yds rushing is hard to reach. A lot of factors have to go right to reach that number once, to expect a repeat is like expecting Manning to throw for 50 TDs every year since he did it once.

I expect Murray to rush for at least 1500 yds next year and that is what I would be paying for, not what he did last year. If you think 1500 yds is insignificant because it is less than 1800 yds then that is nit picking imo

Emmitt, Dickerson, Tomlinson, Payton, Barber, Sanders all strung together several years of top production with tons of touches. Some years they went up a little, some years they went down a little. But to act like RBs can't string together several goods years of top production is just a mistake.

That's a valid point.

It will come down to what the Cowboys feel that's worth.

And do they need a guy to get 1,500 yards to make this offense go?

 

[Nightman]

That's a valid point.

It will come down to what the Cowboys feel that's worth.

And do they need a guy to get 1,500 yards to make this offense go?

I think they absolutely do.

Look at how efficient Romo was knowing he didn't have to win every game by himself

The time of possession helped the defense stay fresher and create more turnovers

Going from 8 wins to 13 wins seems to be the proof

Committees can work, but why take the chance of finding several good RBs when it only costs a little more money to keep Murray

 

[Galian Beast]

Running back is one of those positions where I believe the surface stats are most deceiving.

Yards and yards per carry don't tell the entire story.

What does Murray's yards tell us, that he was durable for a year really. I think he was limited the second half of the year either because of increased presence towards the line or wear and tear.

I think when you look at a running back you have to look at so many different things. Some things I think Murray did exceptional, some things he did average, and some things he did subpar.

Excellent -
Making something out of nothing
Physical play
Pass protection

Average
Short yardage
yards after the catch
Vision

Poor
Burst/second line speed
Fumbling

There are a lot of reasons why I think Murray is replaceable. It's not that I don't think he isn't a skilled running back, and I think he is effective at moving the chains and getting tough yards, but I'm unconvinced that a running back by committee wouldn't also be successful, while highlighting some elements that Murray doesn't possess such as speed. I don't think Randle is all that fast, but Murray makes him look like a speed demon.

I think our first down percentage will drop without Murray, but the question is does our touchdown drive percentage increase or decrease?

 

[MichaelWinicki]

I think they absolutely do.

Look at how efficient Romo was knowing he didn't have to win every game by himself

The time of possession helped the defense stay fresher and create more turnovers

Going from 8 wins to 13 wins seems to be the proof

Committees can work, but why take the chance of finding several good RBs when it only costs a little more money to keep Murray

What's "A little more"?

Again, I do not expect the Cowboys to spend $8 mil+ per season on the guy.

I think the contract will be much closer to $6mil per season, maybe even less.

 

[windward]

There are a lot of factors to consider when you look at why their performance dropped off. Some was usage, some was injury, some was performance, some was luck. But a lot of it is just the fact that 1800 yds rushing is hard to reach. A lot of factors have to go right to reach that number once, to expect a repeat is like expecting Manning to throw for 50 TDs every year since he did it once.

I expect Murray to rush for at least 1500 yds next year and that is what I would be paying for, not what he did last year. If you think 1500 yds is insignificant because it is less than 1800 yds then that is nit picking imo

Emmitt, Dickerson, Tomlinson, Payton, Barber, Sanders all strung together several years of top production with tons of touches. Some years they went up a little, some years they went down a little. But to act like RBs can't string together several goods years of top production is just a mistake.

I've read some people talk about how Murray wasn't as effective in the second half of the season. Well yeah. It's hard to run for 1,000 yards in eight games and really isn't a fair benchmark to set. What he did do was run for 791 yards over the second half which is still very very good.

Sign him to a four year deal that we can get out of after year 2 or 3 if the Cowboys have any concerns about him braking down once he hits age 30.

 

[JohnsKey19]

He's a top 5 RB. He will get paid as such by someone whether it's in Dallas or not. Most great rushing seasons are complimented by at least very good OLs unless the RB is a generational talent like Peterson, Dickerson or Sanders. So while the OL deserves credit, it's foolish to diminish the RBs efforts in achieving a great statistical season. Murray performed as a great RB in 2014. If Dallas is serious about competing for a SB over the next 3 seasons, they will get a deal done with Murray.