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Draft Dish: Needy teams need to think trade
By War Room scouts
For Sporting News
The Chargers need an offensive tackle, and it's arguably their top priority in the 2006 draft. But when it's their turn to make a selection at No. 19 overall, the top two tackles, Virginia's D'Brickashaw Ferguson and USC's Winston Justice, will most likely be off the board. The next best tackle is Auburn's Marcus McNeill, who has a physical issue that concerns some teams, and is ranked 25th overall. Moving down the board six spots is considered a bit of a reach in the middle of the first round, so what are their alternatives?
The Chargers could try to trade down and take McNeill a few picks later, where he fits better. The most important part of a potential trade, however, and sometimes the most difficult, is finding a partner. If they can't move out of 19th, they will need to execute the pick. Instead of reaching for McNeill, they could address another pressing need at wide receiver or cornerback where prospects such as Ohio State's Santonio Holmes and Florida State's Antonio Cromartie are expected to be available.
For most organizations the draft, particularly in the early rounds, is a careful balance between addressing team needs and being conscious of dollar value. Recent drafts have shown that most teams have eschewed the old "best player available" theory and look to select players who address a need and can contribute right away, especially in the current collective bargaining climate in which players can become free agents after four or five seasons.
Under the league's salary-cap constraints, teams also need to be sure that they are getting value and production for their dollar. In the first round, the difference between being picked 19th or 25th could mean millions of dollars. For that reason there are teams that organize draft boards by value and may have only 20-to-25 players rated as "first-round" prospects, despite the fact there are 32 total picks. If the selection comes up and that group of 20-to-25 players is gone, that team will try to trade down and get better value for its pick.
That's not to say every team works the same way. There are front-office types that will fall in love with a player and try to get him on their team at all costs. Still others will stick to the needs board and reach for a player if they feel the need warrants it. But the teams that historically have the most drafting success typically excel at balancing both aspects.
Back to San Diego. The team's second-round pick is No. 50 overall and still it is faced with its need at offensive tackle and either wideout or corner, whichever position the Chargers don't address in the first round. By that time McNeill will be off the board, as should Miami's Eric Winston. But after those tackles, there is a significant dropoff in talent.
Wide receivers Derek Hagan (Arizona State) and Maurice Stovall (Notre Dam), and cornerbacks Richard Marshall (Fresno State), DeMario Minter (Georgia), Alan Zemaitis (Penn State), Tim Jennings (Georgia), and Demetrice Webb (Florida) are all better values than the next best tackle, LSU's Andrew Whitworth, and several of those athletes are likely to still be on the board.
The third round, where the Chargers hold the No. 81 overall pick, shakes out much the same way. So San Diego could come out of Day 1 without addressing its top need. Depending on the team's approach, at some point it could reach for the tackle and select from an abundance of cornerbacks later. The Chargers' constant dilemma is not uncommon for similar teams with specific glaring needs.
Teams looking for offensive or defensive linemen or wide receivers will find slim pickings later in the draft as all three groups in this class lack good depth. There are only 14 offensive linemen currently carrying Day 1 grades, and that encompasses three different positions. The defensive linemen fare a bit better, but still, combined, there are only 20 impact ends and tackles in the first three rounds.
This is the worst wide receiver class in recent memory. Florida's Chad Jackson and Holmes are the only first-round talents, and only five others are ranked in the top 100 players overall. Even at outside linebacker, where there are some outstanding prospects at the top, the position is severely lacking in depth, and many teams will struggle to find players to fill that need, especially coupled with the lack of overall talent at inside linebacker.
What does all this mean? Look for several teams to move up in this draft. Thirty-one of the league's 32 teams list offensive line, defensive line or linebacker as one of their top needs and there just aren't enough players to go around at those positions.
While teams looking to trade down may have trouble finding a partner, this year may be the exception. With so many teams struggling to fill needs, the lack of depth will make teams trade up to get what they need. As draft weekend rapidly approaches and team's boards begin to take their final shape, look for the swap talk to heat up as teams will look to get as many picks as they can in the top 100, where the real value of this draft lies.
War Room scouts analyze NFL and college players, coaches and teams for the Sporting News.
By War Room scouts
For Sporting News
The Chargers need an offensive tackle, and it's arguably their top priority in the 2006 draft. But when it's their turn to make a selection at No. 19 overall, the top two tackles, Virginia's D'Brickashaw Ferguson and USC's Winston Justice, will most likely be off the board. The next best tackle is Auburn's Marcus McNeill, who has a physical issue that concerns some teams, and is ranked 25th overall. Moving down the board six spots is considered a bit of a reach in the middle of the first round, so what are their alternatives?
The Chargers could try to trade down and take McNeill a few picks later, where he fits better. The most important part of a potential trade, however, and sometimes the most difficult, is finding a partner. If they can't move out of 19th, they will need to execute the pick. Instead of reaching for McNeill, they could address another pressing need at wide receiver or cornerback where prospects such as Ohio State's Santonio Holmes and Florida State's Antonio Cromartie are expected to be available.
For most organizations the draft, particularly in the early rounds, is a careful balance between addressing team needs and being conscious of dollar value. Recent drafts have shown that most teams have eschewed the old "best player available" theory and look to select players who address a need and can contribute right away, especially in the current collective bargaining climate in which players can become free agents after four or five seasons.
Under the league's salary-cap constraints, teams also need to be sure that they are getting value and production for their dollar. In the first round, the difference between being picked 19th or 25th could mean millions of dollars. For that reason there are teams that organize draft boards by value and may have only 20-to-25 players rated as "first-round" prospects, despite the fact there are 32 total picks. If the selection comes up and that group of 20-to-25 players is gone, that team will try to trade down and get better value for its pick.
That's not to say every team works the same way. There are front-office types that will fall in love with a player and try to get him on their team at all costs. Still others will stick to the needs board and reach for a player if they feel the need warrants it. But the teams that historically have the most drafting success typically excel at balancing both aspects.
Back to San Diego. The team's second-round pick is No. 50 overall and still it is faced with its need at offensive tackle and either wideout or corner, whichever position the Chargers don't address in the first round. By that time McNeill will be off the board, as should Miami's Eric Winston. But after those tackles, there is a significant dropoff in talent.
Wide receivers Derek Hagan (Arizona State) and Maurice Stovall (Notre Dam), and cornerbacks Richard Marshall (Fresno State), DeMario Minter (Georgia), Alan Zemaitis (Penn State), Tim Jennings (Georgia), and Demetrice Webb (Florida) are all better values than the next best tackle, LSU's Andrew Whitworth, and several of those athletes are likely to still be on the board.
The third round, where the Chargers hold the No. 81 overall pick, shakes out much the same way. So San Diego could come out of Day 1 without addressing its top need. Depending on the team's approach, at some point it could reach for the tackle and select from an abundance of cornerbacks later. The Chargers' constant dilemma is not uncommon for similar teams with specific glaring needs.
Teams looking for offensive or defensive linemen or wide receivers will find slim pickings later in the draft as all three groups in this class lack good depth. There are only 14 offensive linemen currently carrying Day 1 grades, and that encompasses three different positions. The defensive linemen fare a bit better, but still, combined, there are only 20 impact ends and tackles in the first three rounds.
This is the worst wide receiver class in recent memory. Florida's Chad Jackson and Holmes are the only first-round talents, and only five others are ranked in the top 100 players overall. Even at outside linebacker, where there are some outstanding prospects at the top, the position is severely lacking in depth, and many teams will struggle to find players to fill that need, especially coupled with the lack of overall talent at inside linebacker.
What does all this mean? Look for several teams to move up in this draft. Thirty-one of the league's 32 teams list offensive line, defensive line or linebacker as one of their top needs and there just aren't enough players to go around at those positions.
While teams looking to trade down may have trouble finding a partner, this year may be the exception. With so many teams struggling to fill needs, the lack of depth will make teams trade up to get what they need. As draft weekend rapidly approaches and team's boards begin to take their final shape, look for the swap talk to heat up as teams will look to get as many picks as they can in the top 100, where the real value of this draft lies.
War Room scouts analyze NFL and college players, coaches and teams for the Sporting News.