Drafting a QB at 34

[gimmesix]

I did this research for another thread, but thought I would post it here for those only using the draft forum.

Here are all of the quarterbacks taken in the 30s since Favre in 1991:

1991: Favre, Browning Nagle

2001: Drew Brees

2007: Kevin Kolb

2011: Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick

2013: Geno Smith

2014: Derek Carr

So it seems (from that small sample size) that teams have a good chance of finding at least a solid starter if there's a QB worth taking in that range.

Decided to go back even further for a greater sample size:

1989: Mike Elkins

1985: Randall Cunningham

1984: Boomer Esiason

1981: Neil Lomax

1973: Gary Huff, Ron Jaworski

1970: Dennis Shaw

Suddenly, I'm feeling better about our chances of possibly finding the future at QB with that 34th pick, if there's one worth taking there. The success rate from 1970 for drafting a QB in the 30s is 60 percent, while the overall success rate for drafting a QB in the first round is around 50 percent. I have not looked at the success rate of drafting a QB within the first five picks of the draft, but I would assume it would be higher.

 

[NorthwestDallas40]

I did this research for another thread, but thought I would post it here for those only using the draft forum.

Here are all of the quarterbacks taken in the 30s since Favre in 1991:

1991: Favre, Browning Nagle

2001: Drew Brees

2007: Kevin Kolb

2011: Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick

2013: Geno Smith

2014: Derek Carr

So it seems (from that small sample size) that teams have a good chance of finding at least a solid starter if there's a QB worth taking in that range.

Decided to go back even further for a greater sample size:

1989: Mike Elkins

1985: Randall Cunningham

1984: Boomer Esiason

1981: Neil Lomax

1973: Gary Huff, Ron Jaworski

1970: Dennis Shaw

Suddenly, I'm feeling better about our chances of possibly finding the future at QB with that 34th pick, if there's one worth taking there. The success rate from 1970 for drafting a QB in the 30s is 60 percent, while the overall success rate for drafting a QB in the first round is around 50 percent. I have not looked at the success rate of drafting a QB within the first five picks of the draft, but I would assume it would be higher.

This is really all the QB's taken in the top of the second round since 1991?

 

[DFWJC]

The best bet from 34 would be if Lynch is falling into the late 20s. If they like him, then use a 4th rounders and try to go get him ahead of Denver.

 

[Alexander]

The best bet from 34 would be if Lynch is falling into the late 20s. If they like him, then use a 4th rounders and try to go get him ahead of Denver.

Who is going to take a 4th to drop out of the round?

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

This is really all the QB's taken in the top of the second round since 1991?

The term, "top of the second round" is subjective. Is the top the upper half or is it the top 5 of the 2nd round? However, historically speaking, the 2nd round is the round of the draft that has had the fewest QBs drafted since 1994.

Here is an interesting article from Football Outsiders:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/nfl-draft-round-round-quarterback-data

 

[marchetta]

The best bet from 34 would be if Lynch is falling into the late 20s. If they like him, then use a 4th rounders and try to go get him ahead of Denver.

Yeah. We need to move up into the bottom of the 1st to get him so we'll have the 5th-year option available. He's probably going to sit for several years.

 

[DFWJC]

Who is going to take a 4th to drop out of the round?

Always a mystery who will be willing to trade.
I just threw out a fair value swap.
Our 34th (560) plus our 101st (96) gets you 28 (660) roughly...though the chart stuff is not exact at all but almost always without (90-95%)
The team most often willing to trade out of the 1st (but not too far) is New England. But they don't have the pick so it's Carolina, Kansas City, or Arizona in that range.
We may have to add a 6th if it's a slot higher or so.

Again, like you said, you actually have to have a partner to trade with.

 

[Idgit]

The term, "top of the second round" is subjective. Is the top the upper half or is it the top 5 of the 2nd round? However, historically speaking, the 2nd round is the round of the draft that has had the fewest QBs drafted since 1994.

Here is an interesting article from Football Outsiders:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/nfl-draft-round-round-quarterback-data

Interesting that 4 of the top 25 QBs in weighted passing DVOA are UDFAs. Not shocking, given how many of them there are relative to players in other rounds, but it's still interesting that that high a percentage of good passers fall through the cracks given all the scouting resources there are in the league.

 

[Direwolf63]

The term, "top of the second round" is subjective. Is the top the upper half or is it the top 5 of the 2nd round? However, historically speaking, the 2nd round is the round of the draft that has had the fewest QBs drafted since 1994.

Here is an interesting article from Football Outsiders:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/nfl-draft-round-round-quarterback-data

Thanks for posting that. It clearly shows that the odds of finding a QB of the future is in the first round. There's lots of failures there too, but that's the nature of the draft.

 

[ABQCOWBOY]

Interesting that 4 of the top 25 QBs in weighted passing DVOA are UDFAs. Not shocking, given how many of them there are relative to players in other rounds, but it's still interesting that that high a percentage of good passers fall through the cracks given all the scouting resources there are in the league.

I agree. From just looking at the numbers, and obviously there are way more QBs who have been successful from the first round, the 2nd round guys actually hold up well, in terms of winning percentage, against the QBs taken in the 1st round on average.

 

[Hardline]

Should Lynch be off the board at 34 what QB would you take there?

Or barring trading up is there another QB you target in the 3rd round instead?

 

[Idgit]

Should Lynch be off the board at 34 what QB would you take there?

Or barring trading up is there another QB you target in the 3rd round instead?

That's the problem this year. I don't like any of the 2nd round guys at all. Most years, there's a guy you know is going to be late-first/early-2nd that you feel pretty good about. A Garoppolo, if you will. Or a Carr. This year, you're looking at, what, Cook and Hackenberg? Insert your own farting noise here.

 

[Killerinstinct]

I personally would not spend a premium draft pick on a QB for 2 more years but I know others have differing opinions.

 

[MrPhil]

To me, the second round seems like a bit of dead zone for QBs this year. In looking at the rankings, there is a very slim chance Paxton Lynch is there at #34 although I firmly believe someone takes him in round 1, Connor Cook is pretty certain to be a 2nd rounder and Hackenburg could be a late 2nd rounder but in my opinion is most likely a 3rd rounder.

 

[Teague31]

No way lynch gets past Denver at the end of round 1. Best bet for us, if we want him, is to trade back into the mid teens

 

[gimmesix]

Someone asked me to do the success rate of QBs taken in the top five, so here's what I discovered:

I'm not going to include Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota or Blake Bortles because I don't think we've had time to see if their careers will be successful ... but please feel free to include them if you want.

That starts us with:

2012: Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III

2011: Cam Newton

2010: Sam Bradford

2009: Matthew Stafford

2008: Matt Ryan

2007: JaMarcus Russell

2006: Vince Young

2005: Alex Smith

2004: Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers

2003: Carson Palmer

2002: David Carr, Joey Harrington

2001: Michael Vick

I want to stop there because this gives us the same size sample as the previous group. The first problem we encounter is how do you measure success? To me, Vick, Bradford and Griffin were not successful first-round QBs, even though they have had some degree of success at times in their careers. The main reason I don't consider them successes is because they weren't a long-term solution to their teams' QB problems.

That gives me eight QBs who have had successful careers and seven who have not. Now, if you classify Vick, Bradford and Griffin as successes, the rate obviously goes up.

Possibly it goes up as well if you include more years into the equation (but maybe not because I just looked at the previous couple of years when there were none taken in the first five picks in 2000 and three — Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb and Akili Smith — in 1999.)

After researching this, it makes me feel like we might be better off taking one at 34 instead of 4 ... and I'm a little surprised at that. I expected the success rate of the top five to be much higher.

 

[gimmesix]

This is really all the QB's taken in the top of the second round since 1991?

In the 30s? Yes.

 

[gimmesix]

The term, "top of the second round" is subjective. Is the top the upper half or is it the top 5 of the 2nd round? However, historically speaking, the 2nd round is the round of the draft that has had the fewest QBs drafted since 1994.

Here is an interesting article from Football Outsiders:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/nfl-draft-round-round-quarterback-data

I limited my research to those taken before the 40th pick. Some may want to exclude Brees since he was taken at pick No. 32, which would be the first round now.

 

[gimmesix]

Based on the first-round success rate for the top five, if we do decide to take a QB in the first round, I hope we trade down some and take Lynch. If we have a 50-50 shot at succeeding, I'd at least like to get some extra picks in the process.