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Mark It Down
Nick Eatman - Email
DallasCowboys.com Staff Writer
November 17, 2006 5:28 PM Change Font Size A A A A
IRVING, Texas - Let's just cut to the chase:
The Cowboys will beat the Colts.
Yes, the Dallas Cowboys, and yes, this year. I'm talking about Sunday, when Peyton Manning brings his 9-0 Colts into Texas Stadium for the first time.
It will be the Colts' first game in Dallas in 10 years. It will be Manning's first game at Texas Stadium ever.
And it will also be his first loss.
Yes, mark it down, the Cowboys will win.
Now, I know this is a bit out of character for this space. I usually let our other writers dabble in predictions, but I couldn't help myself on this one.
Not only have I been announcing it every week on all three online radio shows that I'm a part of, but I believe it now more than ever. You know, I'm a supporter of sticking by your opinions all the way. If you said it three weeks ago, you should stick by it now.
But that 9-0 record doesn't scare me. And I don't think it scares the Cowboys, either.
Now, if I'm Mike Zimmer, the Cowboys' defensive coordinator, I'm probably not sleeping too well this week. Trying to figure out how to contain Manning and this offense wouldn't be fun for anyone, especially if they just lost one of their best defensive players.
And we know Bill Parcells isn't getting much sleep. He probably tosses and turns until 4 a.m. thinking about his practice squad, much less trying to stop the NFL's second-ranked offense.
But scared? Nah, not this group.
Why should they be? Sure, the Colts haven't lost many games in the last two years, and obviously zero this year. But they haven't exactly been steamrolling teams, either. A win is a win, but getting a bunch of close wins every week makes me think, sooner or later your luck will run out.
Why not this week?
Call this prediction just a hunch if you will. But it didn't just pick up steam here in the last few weeks, say, when the Cowboys made a move at quarterback. I believe I first made this call right after the Cowboys dusted off the Texans on Oct. 15, some five weeks ago.
It's just a feeling, really. But for the record, I will say the last time I've made such a bold prediction about the Cowboys that seemed to go against popular belief was 2004, when the big, bad Eagles came to town on Monday night with Terrell Owens and company.
I said the Cowboys would indeed shock everyone and pull off the upset.
Instead, Owens and Donovan McNabb went crazy on the Cowboys, torching them for a 49-31 win.
So, what do I know?
Well, while Peyton Manning and the Colts are much better than that Eagles team was two years ago, the Cowboys aren't exactly rolling out Vinny Testaverde and Eddie George this week. And they sure won't be starting Lance Frazier at cornerback, either.
This Cowboys team is much more suited to face the NFL's elite teams. And yes, the Colts are every bit "elite." But not invincible.
I've broken it down. Everyone likes lists, so here's mine. My five reasons why the Cowboys will knock off the Colts this week:
5. Home Crowd
Sure, the Cowboys were at home when the Giants came in three weeks ago and embarrassed them on Monday night. And sure, the Colts know how to win on the road, and with all those hand signals and eye contact, Peyton Manning doesn't exactly need to talk to his receivers to communicate. But teams are more dangerous at home. While the Cowboys' crowd isn't always the most intimidating, this one couldn't be set up more perfectly for the Dallas faithful. It's a 3:15 p.m. kickoff, meaning there's no excuse to be late. It's the Colts, Peyton Manning's first game in Dallas and, the best part? The Cowboys fans haven't been here since that Giants game nearly a month ago. They haven't even seen Romo as a starter in person yet. They'll be jacked up, and as long as the Cowboys can stay out of an early deficit, they should use that to their advantage all day.
4. History
Just simple, basic history suggests the Colts won't make it through the entire regular season unscathed. It's happened only once since the NFL merger, when the 1972 Dolphins went a perfect 17-0 to become the only undefeated team in league history. Some of those old-school Dolphins have the champagne on ice, just waiting for the Colts to lose to keep their record intact.
Records are meant to be broken, but when one lasts more than 30 years, you should doubt anyone else will do it, especially in this salary-cap world of the NFL where teams are more equal than ever. So if it's not Dallas, then who? The Colts get the Eagles at home next week, followed by a road trip to Tennessee and then to Jacksonville on Dec. 10, which could be their next toughest test.
After that it's at home on Monday night against Cincinnati, on the road at Houston and then the Dolphins to end the season. Hmmm, if somehow my gut fails me on this pick, I'd like to think Miami might pull the upset in the final week. If the Colts' streak gets that far, Nick Buoniconti might just strap on a helmet and play linebacker himself.
3. Strengths & Weaknesses
When dissecting the Colts, it's easy to point out a few things you think might work to beat them. Like, they rank last in the NFL in run defense. OK, so run the ball on them. Give them a heavy dose of Julius Jones and Marion Barber, and you should be fine, right? Not so fast. Head coach Bill Parcells put it best this week when asked how teams are running the ball on the Colts this year.
"Not enough," he said. "Whatever they're doing, it's not enough."
Hard to argue with anything a 9-0 team is doing.
But at least you have to try. At least the Cowboys do have a potent running game which ranks fifth in the NFL this season. And they do it in a way that bodes well for the fourth quarter. With Jones getting the bulk of the snaps early, and then a somewhat-fresh Barber taking over in the fourth, it's a nice plan - if the Cowboys have the lead. If not, then Mr. Romo will have his work cut out for him.
But aside from just running the ball, it's not like the Cowboys will just roll over when Indy has the rock.
If anything, the Cowboys have the cornerbacks to match up with the Colts. Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne will win some one-on-one battles, but the Cowboys have to think Terence Newman and Anthony Henry can at least hold their own. Expect a lot of blitzes, particularly up the middle. What's Manning going to do, take off running?
2. They're Asking For It
The Colts are just begging to get beat. It's true.
Indy has a knack for doing just enough, but that can't hold up forever, right?
Last year, through the first nine games, the Colts were beating teams by an average of 16.1 points per game.
This year, with a 9-0 record, the Colts' average margin of victory is 6.6 points per game. We're talking about 10 points. The competition might be tougher, but the Cowboys are a tough team. They might be 5-4, but no one is blowing them out.
The Colts can flip that switch and beat the Titans and Bills by one point each at home. But sooner or later, it's going to bite them. If you keep letting games get decided by a play or two, guess what:
In the words of Ivan Drago in Rocky IV, "You will lose."
1. It's the NFL
What more reason do you need? The Colts are favored, the Cowboys have been inconsistent. The Colts have Peyton Manning, already one of the greatest passers ever, and the Cowboys have Tony Romo, a young "renegade" with just three NFL starts under his belt. So . . . the Cowboys win right?
That's just the way this wacky league works these days. Anyone knew the Saints would be competitive? If they did, they weren't at that preseason game in Shreveport, La., against the Cowboys. I would've taken LSU over them that day, and I still might.
Anyone would've guessed the Steelers would have to rally to beat the Saints at home to improve to 3-6 this year?
More weird stuff is happening here lately, too. Like the Vikings and Eagles are going south and the Packers and 49ers are starting to win.
Houston sweeps Jacksonville, the Cardinals win their opener and drop eight straight and Joey Harrington actually replaces someone in the starting lineup?
It's a strange league. Just when you think you've got it figured out, everything changes.
So there you have it. The Cowboys will indeed beat the Colts in what figures to be one of the most entertaining games to come to Texas Stadium in several years.
I'm not big on predicting an actual score, but with the words "track meet" getting tossed around left and right, it won't be a surprise me if a score in the low 20's is good enough to win.
What will surprise me if this game does not come down to a field goal in the end. There is just too much irony involved for Mike Vanderjagt not to attempt a critical field goal against his old club.
Now remember, this is a one-week deal. Not saying the Cowboys will use this win as a springboard to the playoffs. Not saying they will even beat the struggling Bucs on Thanksgiving, which is now less than a week away.
But in this game, against this team, with this much at stake - mark it down for the Cowboys.
Nick Eatman - Email
DallasCowboys.com Staff Writer
November 17, 2006 5:28 PM Change Font Size A A A A
IRVING, Texas - Let's just cut to the chase:
The Cowboys will beat the Colts.
Yes, the Dallas Cowboys, and yes, this year. I'm talking about Sunday, when Peyton Manning brings his 9-0 Colts into Texas Stadium for the first time.
It will be the Colts' first game in Dallas in 10 years. It will be Manning's first game at Texas Stadium ever.
And it will also be his first loss.
Yes, mark it down, the Cowboys will win.
Now, I know this is a bit out of character for this space. I usually let our other writers dabble in predictions, but I couldn't help myself on this one.
Not only have I been announcing it every week on all three online radio shows that I'm a part of, but I believe it now more than ever. You know, I'm a supporter of sticking by your opinions all the way. If you said it three weeks ago, you should stick by it now.
But that 9-0 record doesn't scare me. And I don't think it scares the Cowboys, either.
Now, if I'm Mike Zimmer, the Cowboys' defensive coordinator, I'm probably not sleeping too well this week. Trying to figure out how to contain Manning and this offense wouldn't be fun for anyone, especially if they just lost one of their best defensive players.
And we know Bill Parcells isn't getting much sleep. He probably tosses and turns until 4 a.m. thinking about his practice squad, much less trying to stop the NFL's second-ranked offense.
But scared? Nah, not this group.
Why should they be? Sure, the Colts haven't lost many games in the last two years, and obviously zero this year. But they haven't exactly been steamrolling teams, either. A win is a win, but getting a bunch of close wins every week makes me think, sooner or later your luck will run out.
Why not this week?
Call this prediction just a hunch if you will. But it didn't just pick up steam here in the last few weeks, say, when the Cowboys made a move at quarterback. I believe I first made this call right after the Cowboys dusted off the Texans on Oct. 15, some five weeks ago.
It's just a feeling, really. But for the record, I will say the last time I've made such a bold prediction about the Cowboys that seemed to go against popular belief was 2004, when the big, bad Eagles came to town on Monday night with Terrell Owens and company.
I said the Cowboys would indeed shock everyone and pull off the upset.
Instead, Owens and Donovan McNabb went crazy on the Cowboys, torching them for a 49-31 win.
So, what do I know?
Well, while Peyton Manning and the Colts are much better than that Eagles team was two years ago, the Cowboys aren't exactly rolling out Vinny Testaverde and Eddie George this week. And they sure won't be starting Lance Frazier at cornerback, either.
This Cowboys team is much more suited to face the NFL's elite teams. And yes, the Colts are every bit "elite." But not invincible.
I've broken it down. Everyone likes lists, so here's mine. My five reasons why the Cowboys will knock off the Colts this week:
5. Home Crowd
Sure, the Cowboys were at home when the Giants came in three weeks ago and embarrassed them on Monday night. And sure, the Colts know how to win on the road, and with all those hand signals and eye contact, Peyton Manning doesn't exactly need to talk to his receivers to communicate. But teams are more dangerous at home. While the Cowboys' crowd isn't always the most intimidating, this one couldn't be set up more perfectly for the Dallas faithful. It's a 3:15 p.m. kickoff, meaning there's no excuse to be late. It's the Colts, Peyton Manning's first game in Dallas and, the best part? The Cowboys fans haven't been here since that Giants game nearly a month ago. They haven't even seen Romo as a starter in person yet. They'll be jacked up, and as long as the Cowboys can stay out of an early deficit, they should use that to their advantage all day.
4. History
Just simple, basic history suggests the Colts won't make it through the entire regular season unscathed. It's happened only once since the NFL merger, when the 1972 Dolphins went a perfect 17-0 to become the only undefeated team in league history. Some of those old-school Dolphins have the champagne on ice, just waiting for the Colts to lose to keep their record intact.
Records are meant to be broken, but when one lasts more than 30 years, you should doubt anyone else will do it, especially in this salary-cap world of the NFL where teams are more equal than ever. So if it's not Dallas, then who? The Colts get the Eagles at home next week, followed by a road trip to Tennessee and then to Jacksonville on Dec. 10, which could be their next toughest test.
After that it's at home on Monday night against Cincinnati, on the road at Houston and then the Dolphins to end the season. Hmmm, if somehow my gut fails me on this pick, I'd like to think Miami might pull the upset in the final week. If the Colts' streak gets that far, Nick Buoniconti might just strap on a helmet and play linebacker himself.
3. Strengths & Weaknesses
When dissecting the Colts, it's easy to point out a few things you think might work to beat them. Like, they rank last in the NFL in run defense. OK, so run the ball on them. Give them a heavy dose of Julius Jones and Marion Barber, and you should be fine, right? Not so fast. Head coach Bill Parcells put it best this week when asked how teams are running the ball on the Colts this year.
"Not enough," he said. "Whatever they're doing, it's not enough."
Hard to argue with anything a 9-0 team is doing.
But at least you have to try. At least the Cowboys do have a potent running game which ranks fifth in the NFL this season. And they do it in a way that bodes well for the fourth quarter. With Jones getting the bulk of the snaps early, and then a somewhat-fresh Barber taking over in the fourth, it's a nice plan - if the Cowboys have the lead. If not, then Mr. Romo will have his work cut out for him.
But aside from just running the ball, it's not like the Cowboys will just roll over when Indy has the rock.
If anything, the Cowboys have the cornerbacks to match up with the Colts. Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne will win some one-on-one battles, but the Cowboys have to think Terence Newman and Anthony Henry can at least hold their own. Expect a lot of blitzes, particularly up the middle. What's Manning going to do, take off running?
2. They're Asking For It
The Colts are just begging to get beat. It's true.
Indy has a knack for doing just enough, but that can't hold up forever, right?
Last year, through the first nine games, the Colts were beating teams by an average of 16.1 points per game.
This year, with a 9-0 record, the Colts' average margin of victory is 6.6 points per game. We're talking about 10 points. The competition might be tougher, but the Cowboys are a tough team. They might be 5-4, but no one is blowing them out.
The Colts can flip that switch and beat the Titans and Bills by one point each at home. But sooner or later, it's going to bite them. If you keep letting games get decided by a play or two, guess what:
In the words of Ivan Drago in Rocky IV, "You will lose."
1. It's the NFL
What more reason do you need? The Colts are favored, the Cowboys have been inconsistent. The Colts have Peyton Manning, already one of the greatest passers ever, and the Cowboys have Tony Romo, a young "renegade" with just three NFL starts under his belt. So . . . the Cowboys win right?
That's just the way this wacky league works these days. Anyone knew the Saints would be competitive? If they did, they weren't at that preseason game in Shreveport, La., against the Cowboys. I would've taken LSU over them that day, and I still might.
Anyone would've guessed the Steelers would have to rally to beat the Saints at home to improve to 3-6 this year?
More weird stuff is happening here lately, too. Like the Vikings and Eagles are going south and the Packers and 49ers are starting to win.
Houston sweeps Jacksonville, the Cardinals win their opener and drop eight straight and Joey Harrington actually replaces someone in the starting lineup?
It's a strange league. Just when you think you've got it figured out, everything changes.
So there you have it. The Cowboys will indeed beat the Colts in what figures to be one of the most entertaining games to come to Texas Stadium in several years.
I'm not big on predicting an actual score, but with the words "track meet" getting tossed around left and right, it won't be a surprise me if a score in the low 20's is good enough to win.
What will surprise me if this game does not come down to a field goal in the end. There is just too much irony involved for Mike Vanderjagt not to attempt a critical field goal against his old club.
Now remember, this is a one-week deal. Not saying the Cowboys will use this win as a springboard to the playoffs. Not saying they will even beat the struggling Bucs on Thanksgiving, which is now less than a week away.
But in this game, against this team, with this much at stake - mark it down for the Cowboys.
