KC Joyner: Good afternoon! Let's get this going!
DrTizz (Alta Loma, CA): When you do the over-rated/under-rated comparisons, how much do you account for playing time? Do you normalize for number of snaps? As an example, you gave Robert Geathers as an over-rated pass rusher, but he was a situational player for the most part and got 10.5 sacks, including the coverage and garbage time sacks, as a part time player.
KC Joyner: Good point on Geathers, Dr. I still think he isn't as good as his sack total would indicate but the playing time factor is a valid one.
Dan: (Buffalo, NY): Hey KC, do you run any kind of metrics on offensive lineman? I think Jason Peters could be a pro bowler for the Bills but nobody seems to realize how good he is!
KC Joyner: Dan, did you see my article this week? I had Peters as the most underrated offensive lineman in the NFL.
Marc (Honolulu, Hawaii): KC, love your work and columns. I have a question: In the scouts piece of top team DB's, their description of Charles Woodson is someone on the decline. How is he on the decline when he had careere bests in interceptions, passes defended and he was in your top ten for ypa with 5.3? In fact, I thought he had a bounce back year. Also, your right, these guys overrate DeAngelo Hall way too much! Thanks
KC Joyner: Marc, I think part of the issue on Woodson is that the Packers secondary as a whole had a number of issues last year. Sometimes the collective view of a group can negatively impact the individual view.
Joe, Omaha: Your article on underrated olinemen was your best of the series. Why is John Tait so ignored? I've been watching him since his Chiefs days and he is clearly a top ten tackle, yet never gets any pro-bowl consideration.
KC Joyner: Many thanks for that, Joe! I don't understand the lack of attention for Tait either. He had great metrics as a left tackle in a vertically oriented offense.
Mikey(Lackawanna,NY): WOW KC, Great work and info, I knew Jason Peters had a good season last year but not that good of a season? Do you think he can be a dominant LT with the likes of a Jonathan Ogden, Orlando Pace, and Walter Jones?
KC Joyner: Mikey, I absolutely believe Peters can be just as good as those others you mentioned. He keeps getting better every year, so a Pro Bowl berth might not be far away for him.
Greg (Boston): I know he hasn't played alot, but do you have any metrics on Schaub? If you do what do they indicate?
KC Joyner: Greg, I ran some metrics for Schaub in Scientific Football 2007. His vertical numbers were about the same as Carr's. Where Schaub will be an improvement is in the fire he adds to the team.
Pete(Blitzburgh): Not to sound like a homer but, am I wrong thinking that Santonio Holmes could be the fantasy sleeper of the year? 1100-7 seems possible right?
KC Joyner: Pete, Santonio was easily the best short pass WR in the NFL last year. His 10.5 YPA was 2.5 yards better than anyone else. I might not go quite as high as your numbers but I would be in the same number neighborhood.
Johnny(Queens,NY): Do you think one of the reasons in Walter Jones bad play last season was the big loss of Steve Hutchinson? Or do you think Hutch made Jones a better LT than most people thought he was?
KC Joyner: Johnny, I would bet that part of it was Hutchinson. That and having to play with a banged up O line.
Robbie (Pound Ridge, NY): With the Vick facing federal charges is there a chance that the Falcons look to Dante Culpepper as an option? Could he make a difference there with a more healthy knee, being back in a dome and an improve offensive line?
KC Joyner: Robbie, if Culpepper is healthy he would be an upgrade for the Falcons. If Culpepper's knee is still shaky, he probably wouldn't be much better than Harrington. And isn't it odd that both of Miami's QBs from last year could end up in Atlanta this year?
Hendrick (Hayward, CA): KC, can't wait for the book to come out. Tell me, with the addition of Darius, probably in the run safety role, how does this affect the roles of Mike Huff and Stu Schweigert? Maybe we see a lot of 4-2-5 this season?
KC Joyner: Hendrick, Scientific Football 2007 should be going out the door here very soon. I was extremely happy with how the book turned out and can't wait for everyone to see it. As far as the Raiders and Darius go, I would bet that Huff is moved to the rover style position, Darius plays SS and Schweigert at FS. That gets all of the best athletes on the field.
Jim Charlotte: Vegas has the over/under on Buffalo this year at 6...at bear miniumum, don't you see them winning at least 7?
KC Joyner: Jim, I did won/loss predictions in Scientific Football this year, so I'll just pass along that I have Buffalo as a 9-7 team in 2007.
Xander (Philly): KC, gotta drop you a question before I leave for Italy for 2 weeks! Is that Bills O-line now good enough to spread the field and use their undersized TE and the speedy (but small) Roscoe Parrish?
KC Joyner: Xander, thanks for stopping by before the trip! To answer your question in a nutshell, yes. I did a study in SF 2007 about the Bills vertical passing game before and after Peters moved to LT. The Bills vertical attempts shot up after Peters moved, so I think their offense could do quite well in 2007.
Nick (New Orleans): Is Kendrick Clancy any good? Good fit for the Saints?
KC Joyner: Clancy was great two years ago in NY. He dropped off in Arizona but I have to wonder how much of that was the Arizona environment last year. If Payton can get the 2005 Clancy to come back, it's a fantastic addition for the Saints.
Nick (Boston): Well KC, as long as we're talking 2007 records, and as long as you havent answered a Pats question...what do you project for them this year?
KC Joyner: Nick, I bounced around between 14-2 and 12-4 for the Patriots so I split the difference and had them at 13-3. They are the Super Bowl favorites for me right now.
Dusty (la palma, CA): Love your analysis, I was just wondering how the metrics were for Mark Roman last year, everyone has been talking about the 49ers corners but nothing about their safeties?
KC Joyner: Roman's metrics as a run safety last year were OK but he is being moved to cover safety this year. His deep assist metrics (they key metric for cover safeties) were only so-so. I think he'll be tested early on, especially given how good the Niners corners are.
Broad Street Brian (philly): Pick me, pick me, I'm ever so smart! Did any ORT (besides Peters) post good metrics? Follow up, is comparing RT's and LT's like comparing apples and oranges?
KC Joyner: Very funny, Brian! I focused mostly on left tackles for the article this week because they tend to be more overrated/underrated than any other pass blockers. For the 2nd question, comparing LTs and RTs in my opinion is more like comparing oranges and tangerines than oranges and apples. They both still have to pass block well and will get tested by edge pass rushers.
Tim (San Diego): KC, how about answering a Charger question. Do you agree with Scouts Inc.'s ranking their o-line #1. If not, where do you rank them?
KC Joyner: I've received a couple of inquiries about the Chargers O line. I am completely sold on Marcus McNeill. The rest of the line plays very well as a group but I don't know that I would rank them well individually. A healthy Denver O line coudl be just as good as SD, but other than the Broncos, I don't know that I would rank any other group over SD.
Mike (Bellingham): Who do you like in the NFC West division this year, KC?
KC Joyner: I think the NFC West will be the most exciting divisional race in the NFL this year. I have Seattle as the winner but will not be the least bit surprised if SF finds a way to sneak past them for the crown.
Jeff, KC: re: Marcus McNeil. So is he already a top five tackle?
KC Joyner: Jeff, McNeill is probably just on the periphery of the top-five. If he repeats last year's performance, I'd probably put him in the top-five then.
Ted(Hartford): It seems to me that even though they made the playoffs last year, everybody is sleeping on the Chiefs. They improved on defense and though everybody cites QB and O-line losses they really aren't any worse at either position than last year when Green was awful and Black and Turley were turnstiles. Are you on board with Kansas City going about 10-6 and making the playoffs?
KC Joyner: Ted, it's a transition year in Kansas City this year, so that alone would make a 10-6 mark unlikely in my book. They also have a tough schedule, including games against Chicago, Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Indianapolis and the Jets. I've got them at 7-9.
Steve (District of Columbia): Yo KC unfortunatley I am moving to Cowboy Country, how will a Bengal fan survive? How are the metrics on Dexter Jackson and Medeiu Williams? I think that backfield is better than most people think. Your thoughts?
KC Joyner: Williams is one of the best safeties in the league right now. Jackson's metrics weren't bad last year but they weren't great either.
Eric, Sioux City, IA: With the benefit of hindsight, do you think the Jets wish they could redo their 2006 draft? Matt Leinart, Mangold, and Marcus McNeil would be pretty impressive.
KC Joyner: Eric, I'll agree that McNeill is a much better LT right now than Ferguson by far.
bryant: Who will be the starting qaurterback in kansas city ands how will bernard pollard and jared page do this year at the safety positions?
KC Joyner: Bryant, I would bet that the starting QB in Kansas City in week 1 would be Damon Huard. Jarrad Page had some very good moments last year and I think he can develop into a top-10 safety.
Jonathan (Dallas, TX): Hey KC! If Joe Staley beats out Kwame Harris for the starting RT spot, god i hope he does, and preforms admirably better, how much would that help the 49ers offense?
KC Joyner: Jonathan, the 49ers O line issues over the past couple of years have been injuries. When they are healthy, their O line is great. If Staley could be out Harris, and Harris could take a spot as a quality backup player, it would much improve the 49ers offense.
Bryon(Alabama): KC, Who do you think is the best LT in the NFL? Who would you say is a close 2nd? Thanks love your work.
KC Joyner: Bryon, I would say Ogden or Willie Anderson are the best pass blocking LTs. Both gave up only 3 sacks last year and only one of those was an individual effort sack.
Pete(Blitzburgh): Sure Eric, let's just hop in Doc Brown's car and go back and fix every mistake while we are at it, I wish the steelers would have taken Tom Brady instead of Tee Martin in the 2000 draft!
KC Joyner: No reason to post this other than I liked the Doc Brown's car reference!
Tallahassee, FL: Hey KC. Do you think J.P. Losman will continue to improve like he has over the past year and have a breakout year? He was almost top 10 passer rating last year, but people seem to overlook him.
KC Joyner: Hello to my favorite college football town! With Peters at left tackle, Losman could have that breakout year. I might not put him in the top 10 but he'll be darn close if the Bills let him air it out more often.
Quentin Jammer (Chargers): What do expect from me this year? What about our secondary as a group?
KC Joyner: Quentin, I expect that you will continue to play well as long as Marlon McCree is in your secondary. McCree is the reason for the Chargers improvement last year. As long as he is in the lineup, SD's secondary will continue to play well.
brent(montana): pickme pickem, its been a while, i loved your newest readings.what about larry allen?lol-n e ways uve never answered me yet- 49ers record will be_____. thanks kc
KC Joyner: Brent, I have SF's record next year as 9-7. If the ball bounces right I could see a 10-6 mark and the NFC West title.
Jeff, St. Louis: Jarrad Page a potential top 10 safety. Heckofa value for a 7th rounder. Have you noticed that the majority of good young safeties were drafted on the 2nd day -- Considine, Rhodes, Coleman, G.Wilson, Page, D.Landry, and Bethea. Can you explain this?
KC Joyner: Good eye, Jeff. If I were to take a guess at why that it, I would say that good play recognition skills tend to get overlooked in the draft. There is so much attention paid to size and speed that a good football mind tends to be underrated. That and maybe the safety position lends itself well to heady young players.
Mrs. Football Scientist: KC, if you want dinner tonight, answer a Broncos question - their record will be ______?
KC Joyner: Again, I posted this because it made me laugh! I've got Denver at 11-5.
Tom (flower Mound, TX): I guess we don't need to play this NFL season since your crystal ball already knows what everyones record will be. I guess thats why you get the big bucks.
KC Joyner: Tom, I just try to give the readers of my books and people on this chat what they are looking for. They want won/loss predictions so I do them. Heck, I know as much as anyone that one injury could completely change a team's prospects.
Ken (Tarzana,CA): So if Kendrick Clancy may have been effected by the "environment" in Arizona...How may have Boldin and Wilson been effected by the environment? Each made the Pro Bowl.
KC Joyner: Ken, some players are affected more by a franchise in turmoil than others. Boldin and Wilson could go play for a 2-14 team and would still perform well. That's to their credit.
Jeremy (NH): KC, can you give me any other somewhat obscure stats such as Yards per Pass Attempt, that correlate to wins? It seems like this is a good basis but are their others that people don't talk about as much as TDs, Passer Rating, and Yards? thanks
KC Joyner: Jeremy, the metrics I use to grade QBs are YPA, SYPA and the two bad decision percentage types. Including rushing yards would be something that would help account for a QBs total value.
Beau (New Orleans): Hey KC, I've been told that Jamar Nesbit, the Saints' RG, "protects" Jamaal Brown and that he is a large reason for Brown's success? Do you buy it?
KC Joyner: Brown almost made my overrated list. He's a good, and maybe a very good, lineman but I don't think he is one of top linemen in the league. Or, to put it another way, if he wasn't a high draft pick, I don't think he'd be a Pro Bowl tackle right now.
kyle (az): KC!! do you think the eagles have enough depth at WR to complement their great o-line, plethora of db's and of course b-west??
KC Joyner: Kyle, the Eagles are in great shape at WR with Curtis, Brown and company. I'm actually more concerned with their secondary right now. Safeties are a possible issue as is the nickel CB spot.
Rick (Greenbay WI): *Sigh* It's really hard being a Lions fan in Packerland, but do you think the Lions will FINALLY be able to beat the Packers in Greenbay this year? (It's been what, 15 years?)
KC Joyner: Rick, I believe it has actually been 16 trips if you include the playoff loss. I think Detroit will end at least one of their big NFC North losing streaks this year, but I don't know that I would put this on the top of the "likely to happen" list.
Vincent Jackson (Chargers): Will I have a breakout year this season?
KC Joyner: Vincent, I did a study on your metrics in Scientific Football 2007. You had a 7-yard level YPA against good corners. You also have an incredibly tough schedule in front of you. I'm not on the Jackson breakout tour just yet.
Dan (OK): Let's say all the stars are alligned for Dallas. No major injuries, Romo plays at a Pro Bowl level, offensive line gels, defense plays Chargers style football -- how far can the Cowboys go if everything falls into place for them?
KC Joyner: Dan, if the Cowboys stars stayed aligned in 2007, the Super Bowl would be their destination. They have that much talent.
Scott (Raleigh, NC): KC - love your work. How do you see Vernon Carey for the Dolphins doing in his move from RT to LT this year?
KC Joyner: Scott, I'm so-so on Carey. McIntosh did a fairly solid job at times at LT last year. Carey should at least be able to match that performance, so it won't be a step down for them.
Greg Detroit: With Kitna Predicting 10+ wins and Furrey agreeing, how close do you think the Lions will come to the predictions this year?
KC Joyner: Greg, I have Detroit going 6-10. I could see 8-8 if things go their way, but that's about as far as I would go.
Jarric (Kansas): Love the chats KC. Can you give us the metrics of McIntosh, the LT that's now in Kansas City via Miami? Thanks and this seems like a good time to plug the book and website again!
KC Joyner: Jarric, you always mention the plug and I appreciate that! I don't have McIntosh's numbers right in front of me but if memory serves me correct, he allowed five or six sacks last year. Not bad but not great. He'll be better than Jordan Black, that's for sure. The book is Scientific Football 2007 and the site is
www.thefootballscientist.com (only website plug of the chat!).
Norv Turner (Chargers): KC, with Indy, NE, Chicago, Baltimore and Denver (twice) on our schedule, do we have the toughest schedule?
KC Joyner: If you don't have the toughest, you are a close second. Oakland gave you guys a run for your money last year on two occasions as well and they will likely do so again this year. I still have SD winning double digit games but they won't repeat 14-2.
Sal, Allentown, PA: Two chats ago you wrote that you think Sean Considine could become one of the better safeties around. Now you think the Eagles safeties could be a problem. Please clarify.
KC Joyner: Sal, it's that pesky little word could. My mind's eye says Considine could become a very good safety, but he still has to prove it. Dawkins' metrics were very good, so it really is only Considine who might be an issue.
Tony, Cornish, NH: I'm surprised by your analysis of the Eagles defensive backs. Shepherd, Brown, and James rival any teams top three CBs. Didn't you say you were high on Sean Considine?
KC Joyner: Tony, I've been a flagcarrier for the Eagles secondary for a few years now but their current situation concerns me. Brown's 2006 metrics were the worst of his career and James is an injury risk.
Preston(Beaverton): What do you think Adrian Peterson will do in Minnesota
KC Joyner: I think he and Chester Taylor will combine to be a dominant tandem.
Ed (SF): KC - Any insight into the Portis-Betts situation in WAS? Who performed better based on your metrics in 2006? Thanks!
KC Joyner: Ed, my take on this is that Portis could be starting to wear down. Betts doesn't have as many miles as Portis and did a superb job in Portis' absence. Betts could see the ball a lot in 2007.
Brandon: Dallas: Yeah KC, BUT don't you think that after Brown's bad year and a completely fresh and cocky James that the competition will drive both of them to outstanding seasons?
KC Joyner: Brandon, they both have a lot of talent but their question marks are huge. I've been a Sheldon Brown backer since I said great things about him in Scientific Football 2005, but his performance the past two years has fallen off on a fairly steady basis.
al (DC): Speaking of Portis/Betts, Betts is a great 15th round keeper (right?) also Santonio in the 14th and Cutler in the 13th...I got to promo your fantasy advice, helped me big time last year -- your analysis of Parker was spot on, what a year...
KC Joyner: Al, thanks for the kudos! Yes, Betts would be a great keeper pick. Santonio has a lot of upside so I would definitely find a spot for him on the roster. Cutler will likely throw vertically a ton this year, so he has upside, but I'm not quite as sold on his receivers as some are.
Travis (Canada): KC, since 1999 there has been 308 arrests or charges against NFL players of things more serious then just traffic stops, such as speeding tickets. Did commish Paul need to go and have the new sherriff such as Goddell come in to lay down the law?
KC Joyner: Travis, I don't know that I would view Tagliabue as being to blame for the arrests numbers (and I have to point out that I can only assume your numbers are correct on that one). Goddell is addressing the issue in a new way, so let's give him credit, but let's not throw the old commish under the bus.
Josh (Lincoln, NE): Does Denver have far and away the best secondary in the league?
KC Joyner: Without a doubt. Bly and Bailey are great CBs. Lynch and Ferguson both have dominant metrics as well. There are almost no weaknesses in the Broncos secondary. Well, to quote an old REO Speedwagon tune, it's time for me to fly! I hope to see you all next week!
