ESPN: Late-round picks catch on at WR

WoodysGirl

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By Len Pasquarelli
ESPN.com
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Houston Texans star Andre Johnson, the leading receiver in the NFL in 2006 with 103 catches, is a former first-round draft choice and a two-time Pro Bowl performer and generally is regarded around the league as one of its emerging young stars.

The runner-up to Johnson last season with 98 catches, Mike Furrey of Detroit, was an undrafted free agent in 2000. He played in the short-lived XFL and the Arena Football League before making an NFL roster, was a safety for the St. Louis Rams before moving to wide receiver full time and had more tackles (59) than catches (21) entering the 2006 campaign.

Yet Furrey, a self-described "slow, possession-type white guy" of modest athletic capabilities, had only five fewer receptions than Johnson, registered the same average yards per catch and scored one more touchdown than his more-talented counterpart.

Given their similar accomplishments, Furrey and Johnson represent the difficult decision franchises face in the opening round of the draft every spring. And that conundrum -- whether to invest a first-round choice on a wide receiver or trust that a serviceable pass catcher will be available in a later round, as they typically are in every lottery -- is probably even more profound this year because of the presence of Calvin Johnson.

The Georgia Tech star, who did nothing to diminish his brilliant reputation when he auditioned for NFL coaches and scouts last week on campus, is the consensus No. 1 prospect in the draft pool.

"Far and away the best player, the safest pick, a guy you can take and probably have no [qualms] about him on or off the field," said the college scouting director for a team with a choice in the top 10 on April 28.

Yet that doesn't mean Johnson will be the first name called by commissioner Roger Goodell when he steps to the podium to commence the proceedings.

There are, of course, individual team needs that will dictate which players are picked early. And there is, in the case of the wide receiver position, a history that suggests that pass-catchers don't necessarily merit top-10 consideration.

Who's to say, for instance, that Micah Johnson of Division I-AA South Dakota State, a wide receiver with impressive college statistics and projected as a possible midround pick, won't have a more immediate impact in the NFL than Calvin Johnson? Or that Lance Johnson from Catawba, a Division II school, won't be a star at the NFL level. After all, it has happened before at wide receiver.

OK, so the thought that any prospect at any position might make a bigger splash in the NFL as a rookie than the incomparable Calvin Johnson is probably preposterous. But as good as Johnson is -- and his performances in three seasons for the Yellow Jackets, in the on-field testing at the combine workouts in Indianapolis last month and at the Georgia Tech pro day last week are mind-boggling -- he still doesn't come with an iron-clad guarantee.

It is a game that has evolved at some positions, and wide receiver clearly is one of them, to the point that systems can make a player. As is the case with Furrey, who flourished in a Mike Martz-designed offense but who many scouts and coaches insist would struggle in some other system, scheme sometimes is enough to trump skills. And recent history offers a pretty good indication that wide receivers don't have to be first-rounders to be first-rate.

"There are a lot of great wide receivers taken [in the first round]. But you look around the league, and you see it's not a must. I wasn't a first-round pick … and I've done pretty well for myself," said Carolina Panthers star Steve Smith, a third-round selection in the 2001 draft but arguably the NFL's most explosive wide receiver.

That said, success of wide receivers chosen outside the first round hasn't slowed the NFL fixation on tabbing pass catchers in the opening stanza of the draft. In the past 10 years, there have been 41 wide receivers picked in the first round. Only in 2006, when Santonio Holmes of the Steelers was the lone wide receiver to go off the board in the opening round, were there fewer than three.

The first-round results, however, certainly have been mixed.

For the purpose of assessing the recent first-rounders, let's eliminate those selected in the past three years because their body of work is not yet sufficient for reliable analysis. That leaves 27 wide receivers from the first rounds of the 1997-2003 drafts. Of those 27 wideouts, 14 are out of the league entirely and nine are with franchises other than the ones that drafted them. Only four have appeared in multiple Pro Bowl games.

Indeed, at a position that demands precision in route running, the road is a crooked one, and it's littered with wide receiver flops such as Rae Carruth, Yatil Green, Marcus Nash, Peter Warrick, R. Jay Soward, Sylvester Morris, Freddie Mitchell, Koren Robinson, Rod Gardner and David Terrell.

In some cases, as with Green, who tore up his knee in consecutive training camps, or Morris, who suffered an essentially career-ending knee injury in his second year, the players were victimized by bad luck. In others, such as the notorious Carruth, no one could possibly have predicted the player would be convicted of conspiracy to commit murder. And with guys such as Robinson or Soward, well, character flaws proved too much to overcome.

But in the case of nearly every one of those first-round failures, there was a wide receiver taken in the second or third round of the same draft who was a superior player.

"It's definitely a position where you can get good, polished players outside the first round, guys who can come in and play for you right away," Martz said. "That's not to say you're not looking for special players in the first round. But teams don't have to reach for those guys, usually, because you'll find solid [receivers] later on."

But will you find a player of Calvin Johnson's ilk?

Since 1970, only two wide receivers, Irving Fryar of New England in 1984 and Keyshawn Johnson of the New York Jets in 1996, were chosen with the first overall selection. The two combined for nearly 1,700 catches and more than 23,000 yards, but neither is likely to be elected to the Hall of Fame.

Because of the rules changes that have opened up the passing game and turned ordinary receivers into players capable of snagging 60 balls per season, it's not necessary to have Hall of Fame-caliber players at the position. In the past 10 seasons, there have been 13 players who either led the league in catches by a wide receiver or tied for the lead. Seven of them were former first-round choices. But there were also players such as Joe Horn (fifth-round pick), Rod Smith (undrafted) and Jimmy Smith (second-round pick) in that group.

Of the top 10 wide receivers in 2006 in terms of catches, Furrey was an undrafted player and T.J. Houshmandzadeh of Cincinnati and Green Bay's Donald Driver were seventh-rounders.

"If you've got the skill and the will," Houshmandzadeh said, "where they draft you doesn't matter all that much. There are a lot of wide receivers in this league who are playing at a really high level but who weren't high-round picks."

Len Pasquarelli is a senior writer for ESPN.com.

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DallasEast

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WoodysGirl;1429467 said:
Because of the rules changes that have opened up the passing game and turned ordinary receivers into players capable of snagging 60 balls per season, it's not necessary to have Hall of Fame-caliber players at the position.
It doesn't get any simplier than that.
 

Colo

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Hopefully Miles and Crayton will one day be listed in that group of over achievers.
 

burmafrd

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the Boys have really never had 2 potential HOF WRs at the same time- with the exception of when we had Pearson and Hill.
 

Chocolate Lab

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adamknite;1429505 said:
yet it's so hard for some people to understand.

I wonder if some of that really is the Madden fixation... Or at least the ESPN Highlight fixation.

If there is one position where having a single great player contributes very little to winning a championship, it's wide receiver.
 

theogt

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Late round picks catch on at every position. That doesn't mean you shouldn't draft anyone in the 1st round. And it certainly doesn't mean there isn't a higher number of busts per pick in the later rounds. This is a fluff piece couched in seemingly meaningful anecdotes by Pasquarelli.
 

InmanRoshi

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I've always wondered why people have become so fixated on WR's in recent years when it comes to the draft. The phenomenon really started to take hold with Randy Moss. I think part of it is because their height/weight/speed numbers are typically usually so unreal that it captures people's imaginations. Just the thought of a 6'3" man running a 4.4, you think this guy is absolutely uncoverable. Also highlight reels lend themselves to WR's, since even the great ones only touch the ball 5-6 times a game, to condense all those catches into 3 to 4 minute clip is pretty spectacular to watch, but doesn't really translate their actual impact in a game.

I don't mind people with 'special' talent in the first round like a Calvin Johnson, or maybe even Ginn if you think you can develop him. But guys like Bowe, Rice or Jarrett in the first round? No thanks. You can find similar players later in the draft.
 

ZeroClub

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Chocolate Lab;1429599 said:
I wonder if some of that really is the Madden fixation... Or at least the ESPN Highlight fixation.

If there is one position where having a single great player contributes very little to winning a championship, it's wide receiver.

The top flight QB, RB, or defensive pressure player all seem more important than the top flight WR.
 

LatinMind

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with all that being said in that article, if u were to askt he writer what wr or player he would pick over johnson, i dont think he could come up with one. atleast not in this draft.
 

Colo

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A little surprised that Mr. Close to Irrelevant Colston didn't at least get a mention.
 

theogt

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InmanRoshi;1429616 said:
I don't mind people with 'special' talent in the first round like a Calvin Johnson, or maybe even Ginn if you think you can develop him. But guys like Bowe, Rice or Jarrett in the first round? No thanks. You can find similar players later in the draft.
You realize you can do this for every position don't you? For example:

I don't mind people with 'special' talent in the first round like a [Gaines Adams], or maybe even [Jamaal Anderson] if you think you can develop him. But guys like [Moss], [Spencer] or [Johnson] in the first round? No thanks. You can find similar players later in the draft.
I don't think there's really anything innate to the WR position that makes it a horrible position to pick in the 1st round. It requires just as much athleticism as every other position that is normally drafted in the 1st.
 

Chocolate Lab

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But there are two things.

One -- quickly -- name the best passrushers that come to mind. How many of them were later picks? Same for a couple of other positions like the best left tackles. Seems to me that most were high picks.

And two, even if you accept that the best WRs are taken the earliest -- which I think Steve Smith, Owens, Hines Ward, and others show isn't always true -- they contribute less to the overall team success than others.

So even if your premise is true that the best players are taken earliest regardless of position played, why not take a higher-value position than WR?
 

InmanRoshi

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Its only a horrible position to draft in the 1st round because you can find more talent at that position spread throughout the draft than any other. I don't think you could find a rookie defense end drafted in the 7th round make the Pro Bowl as a rookie like Marques Colston. I had read somewhere that WR has the highest bust rate in the first round of any position outside of QB. They're difficult positions to evaluate coming out of college because their perceived ability can be totally overinflated by the type of system they played for. Look no further than Reche Caldwell, Travis Taylor, Taylor Jacobs and Jabbar Gaffney.
 

ABQCOWBOY

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I think it depends on your offense. Lets face it, if you have a guy who can change a game with his abilities, it makes your offense much better. We, of all teams, should understand this. Look at the impact TO had on our offense. I don't know that I buy into this whole, average WRs are all you need thing. I think you can get by but I don't know if you can say that's all you need to have a good offense. Last season, the top 5 offenses in the league were as follows:

New Orleans - Marcus Colston, Joe Horn, Devery Henderson and Reggie Bush.
Philly - Reggie Brown, Donte Stallworth, Brian Westbrook and LJ Smith.
Indy - Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Ben Utecht and Dallas Clark.
San Diego - Antonio Gates, Eric Parker, LT, Vincent Jackson and Mcardell.
Dallas - TO, Terry Glenn, Jason Witten and Patrick Clayton.

I look at these teams and outside of New Orleans, I don't really see this holding true. Reggie Bush was a high pick but for the most part, there other WRs were not. Now, you can make the case that because of Reggie, the other WRs are better and I think there is substance to that. However, in the case of Philly, Indy, SD and us, we have significant investment in receivers. Philly has a high second, a 1st, a 3rd and another 2nd. We have a huge FA, a 1st and a 3rd. I mean, I think the teams that are succesful are investing in the position.
 

theogt

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InmanRoshi;1429678 said:
Its only a horrible position to draft in the 1st round because you can find more talent at that position spread throughout the draft than any other. I don't think you could find a rookie defense end drafted in the 7th round make the Pro Bowl like Marques Colston.
Sure you can. Mark Anderson was what -- a 5th round choice? -- and he contributed 12 sacks in his rookie season. You can find defensive lineman in the late rounds that go on to have very successful careers.

I had read somewhere that WR has the highest bust rate in the first round of any position outside of QB. WR's are totally dependant on other people to get them the ball so they can make plays, so their perceived ability can be totally inflated by the type of offense they played for in college.
I don't know the statistics so I can't really claim one way or the other, which is my entire point. Until someone shows me the statistics, I wouldn't make such a bold claim. In addition, "bust rate" wouldn't be sufficient to determine whether taking a WR in the 1st round is wise or not. Just like any risk, you'd have to know (1) the likelihood of sucess/failure (i.e., bust rate) and (2) the potential return.

Look no further than Reche Caldwell, Travis Taylor, Taylor Jacobs and Jabbar Gaffney.
Anecdotal evidence isn't very useful.
 

InmanRoshi

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theogt;1429684 said:
Anecdotal evidence isn't very useful.

You don't seem to mind using it. Would you like me to add Reidel Anthony and Ike Hillard to that list?

Mark Anderson and Marques Colston are a fair comparison compare as far as their impact. Marques Colston made the Pro Bowl and was an elite WR. Mark Anderson didn't even start last year. He racked up some nice sack totals as a situational package player, usually late in the game in blow outs (8.5 of his 12 sacks came with a point margin over 15 points).

Since its so hard to evaluate "busts", I'll let you do it on your own subjective nature...

WR's drafted in the first round in the last 10 years from 1996-2003. I'll exclude 2003-2006, since I'll give guys three years of development before I call them busts.

Pete Warrick
David Boston
Troy Edwards
Tory Holt
Plaxico Burress
Travis Taylor
Sly Morris
RJ Soward
Kevin Dyson
Randy Moss
Marcus Nash
David Terrell
Koren Robinson
Rod Gardener
Santana Moss
Freddie Mitchell
Reggie Wayne
Dante Stallworth
Ashlie Lelei
Javon Walker
Ike Hilliard
Rediel Anthony
Yatil Green
Rae Carruth
Charles Rogers
Andre Johnson
Bryant Johnson

By my count 15 out of 27 that aren't even in the NFL anymore, and I'm being generous because I'm couting Koren Robinson as still in the league. I'm still leaving in guys who are career journeymen (Garndner), haven't lived up to expectations (Lelei), second stringers (Bryant Johnson) or guys playing on their 3rd team in three years (Stallworth). I'm talking 55% aren't even collecting an NFL paycheck.

I would only count 7 of those 27 as meeting or exceeding expectations, in my own personal job evaluation.
 
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