Everything You Want to Know About North Korean Nukes (But Were Afraid to Ask)

[CCBoy]

If this is considered too political, please just delete:



Everything You Want to Know About North Korean Nukes (But Were Afraid to Ask)
https://www.yahoo.com/news/everything-want-know-north-korean-154914055.html

The regime in North Korea keeps launching missiles – or trying to – and threatening its neighbors with nuclear holocaust. On Tuesday it launched yet another missile test, though the rogue nation still has many steps to go to field a real ICBM that could threaten the U.S.

The Trump administration has declared an end to the "strategic patience" that marked earlier days. But amid these terse diplomatic exchanges and military posturing, there is a technical discussion that is often overlooked.

For some clarity, we turned to John Schilling, an aerospace engineer specializing in rocket propulsion. As a key contributor to the North Korea-monitoring website 38 North, Schilling is among the best versed in missile technologies outside of the Pentagon.

How would fielding an ICBM change the geopolitical calculus when nations deal with North Korea?...

 

[PJTHEDOORS]

This won't end well here.

 

[CCBoy]

Korea is in the news, as is the issue of missile threats, both for us and those we are committed to. I was just trying to address the danger...not a political statement. If that is the category this will fall within, please just delete the article. It was pretty informative...that was my only attempt here. If that is just political...again, please delete. I'm not trying to be an irritant here.

 

[waldoputty]

liquid fuel - long time to load.
modern solid propellant tech is more difficult and dangerous.

 

[Tabascocat]

I think NK is still quite a few years away from being able to hold a successful nuclear launch(on our mainland). They are progressing for sure but no where near being a viable(nuclear) threat IMO. 2020 seems far-fetched, more like 2025 at least.

Is Kim crazy enough to actually use one? Or does he want them for protection, status-quo, etc? I don't think they would actually launch one towards us or an ally over there but ya never know.

A lot of questions for sure like should we put their testing to a permanent halt while endangering SK and Japan and our troops over there? Tough decision........

Without getting political, I don't think our administration would bomb them either before any type of attack on NK's part. We will continue the diplomatic route, squeeze their economy somehow and place more sanctions until they prove not to work. War will be an absolute last resort and no one wants to do that.

Like I have said before, we will send in special forces to facilitate a regime change before a bomb/ground troops are deployed. I don't really see that happening either unless they advance quicker than expected.

 

[JoeKing]

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

Make a political post, get time off. Only warning anyone will get in this thread.

 

[waldoputty]

Make a political post, get time off. Only warning anyone will get in this thread.

if i provide info on missile technology, would that get time off?

 

[Denim Chicken]

I think NK is still quite a few years away from being able to hold a successful nuclear launch(on our mainland). They are progressing for sure but no where near being a viable(nuclear) threat IMO. 2020 seems far-fetched, more like 2025 at least.

Are you kidding me? Dear leader has seen NK's space program land on the Sun and--might I add--as a personal achievement, has shot a 18 (perfect!) round of golf. They are far more advanced than given credit for.

"We are very delighted to announce a successful mission to put a man on the sun. North Korea has beaten every other country in the world to the sun. Hung Il Gong is a hero and deserves a hero's welcome when he returns home later this evening".

 

[JoeyBoy718]

Did somebody call?

 

[punchnjudy]

I think NK is still quite a few years away from being able to hold a successful nuclear launch(on our mainland). They are progressing for sure but no where near being a viable(nuclear) threat IMO. 2020 seems far-fetched, more like 2025 at least.

Is Kim crazy enough to actually use one? Or does he want them for protection, status-quo, etc? I don't think they would actually launch one towards us or an ally over there but ya never know.

A lot of questions for sure like should we put their testing to a permanent halt while endangering SK and Japan and our troops over there? Tough decision........

Without getting political, I don't think our administration would bomb them either before any type of attack on NK's part. We will continue the diplomatic route, squeeze their economy somehow and place more sanctions until they prove not to work. War will be an absolute last resort and no one wants to do that.

Like I have said before, we will send in special forces to facilitate a regime change before a bomb/ground troops are deployed. I don't really see that happening either unless they advance quicker than expected.

If cornered by invading ground forces and feeling like his regime would end anyway, I wouldn't bet against him nuking his own territory if he still had nuclear capability. I doubt he would care what it would do to his own people and he would take out a lot of enemy forces. He'd die too from the response but if he knew he was going to lose his regime anyway...

It's a scary future because on a long enough timeline you have to figure every major/semi-major power is going to have both nukes and icbm's. Need a way to neutralize them.

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

if i provide info on missile technology, would that get time off?

Missile technology is not political unless you interject political commentary into the post. Political talk is what will get you time off.

 

[Tabascocat]

If cornered by invading ground forces and feeling like his regime would end anyway, I wouldn't bet against him nuking his own territory if he still had nuclear capability. I doubt he would care what it would do to his own people and he would take out a lot of enemy forces. He'd die too from the response but if he knew he was going to lose his regime anyway...

It's a scary future because on a long enough timeline you have to figure every major/semi-major power is going to have both nukes and icbm's. Need a way to neutralize them.

Yea, I get that but who exactly is beating at their door? SK, Japan, China, Russia, Iran, etc seem content with them. Unfortunately, it looks to be USA's problem to deal with and ours alone.

I don't doubt that Kim would not go out with a whimper but just don't see that in the foreseeable future.

 

[waldoputty]

Missile technology is not political unless you interject political commentary into the post. Political talk is what will get you time off.

Ok

North Korean missiles can probably reach Alaska currently though the range will continue to expand. They have demonstrate more powerful launchers but have to be adapted for ICBM use. The other challenge is warhead miniaturization. Many guess that they are at least a few years away from having a capability of launching nuclear warheads on ICBMs, assuming the ICBM goes where it is supposed to go.

There are 5 ABM systems to shoot missiles down.
1. Patriot - short range defense and many question whether the Patriot actually intercepted anything.
2. THAAD that is partially installed in South Korea - shorter range so probably cannot reach relevant missiles. One thing that many do not discuss is the THAAD radar in South Korea can communicate with other systems to improve their operations (assuming South Korea allows the continued operation of the partially-installed THAAD system in South Korea).
3. Midcourse intercept missiles - 36 installed in Alaska and California. More coming. Unfortunately 2 out of 5 hit, though the last 2 did intercept test missile. There are questions about whether the test was fair or not. Some have commented need to fire multiple (e.g. 4 for 1) to be more sure of an intercept. These use a hit-to-kill approach that require direct impact on the warhead. These intercepts are much longer range than other systems.
4. AEGIS SM3 on missile ships and in Europe. Intercept test have gone very well with a range of ~400 miles and good intercept statistics (>75%). Due to limited range (better than Patriot though), ships with SM3 can be positioned in areas within range of missiles as a stop-gap capability as well as near the launch site. These also use a hit-to-kill approach. Japan and Poland have these.
5. Lasers - disaster. ABL (airborne laser on 747) program cancelled. Some programs to put small lasers closer to the enemy on UAVs. Not available based on public literature.

 

[punchnjudy]

Yea, I get that but who exactly is beating at their door? SK, Japan, China, Russia, Iran, etc seem content with them. Unfortunately, it looks to be USA's problem to deal with and ours alone.

I don't doubt that Kim would not go out with a whimper but just don't see that in the foreseeable future.

Agreed - I don't think we, or any other country, would invade. I don't think there really is a good solution unless China gets serious. I'm fine with an assassination given all the threats he's made (and everything else), but I don't think we'll do that either. If their economy collapsed enough, maybe one of his own people would take him out but we probably need China's help to create that scenario.

 

[timb2]

Start arming Japan & Taiwan with nukes and China will not want that and they will shut down North Korea and that Fat Asian kid with the bad haircut .

 

[csirl]

I dont think NK is close to having the capability. Think about it. If you're on the team tasked with developing the missile and the nutjob leader sets you an impossible task. You just show him some regular rockets being fired and tell him they have newly developed nuclear technology. Maybe paint them a snazzy colour and add some fake components. Nutjob wont know the difference between real and fake and you get executed if you fail. So everyone just pretends and tells nutjob everything is great.

 

[Longboysfan]

Ok

North Korean missiles can probably reach Alaska currently though the range will continue to expand. They have demonstrate more powerful launchers but have to be adapted for ICBM use. The other challenge is warhead miniaturization. Many guess that they are at least a few years away from having a capability of launching nuclear warheads on ICBMs, assuming the ICBM goes where it is supposed to go.

There are 5 ABM systems to shoot missiles down.
1. Patriot - short range defense and many question whether the Patriot actually intercepted anything.
2. THAAD that is partially installed in South Korea - shorter range so probably cannot reach relevant missiles. One thing that many do not discuss is the THAAD radar in South Korea can communicate with other systems to improve their operations (assuming South Korea allows the continued operation of the partially-installed THAAD system in South Korea).
3. Midcourse intercept missiles - 36 installed in Alaska and California. More coming. Unfortunately 2 out of 5 hit, though the last 2 did intercept test missile. There are questions about whether the test was fair or not. Some have commented need to fire multiple (e.g. 4 for 1) to be more sure of an intercept. These use a hit-to-kill approach that require direct impact on the warhead. These intercepts are much longer range than other systems.
4. AEGIS SM3 on missile ships and in Europe. Intercept test have gone very well with a range of ~400 miles and good intercept statistics (>75%). Due to limited range (better than Patriot though), ships with SM3 can be positioned in areas within range of missiles as a stop-gap capability as well as near the launch site. These also use a hit-to-kill approach. Japan and Poland have these.
5. Lasers - disaster. ABL (airborne laser on 747) program cancelled. Some programs to put small lasers closer to the enemy on UAVs. Not available based on public literature.

Thank you.
Interesting that they can shoot them down.

Then why do the North Koreans spend so much on something that can be shot down.

 

[The Fonz]

I don't take news at face value,some days later the news' main topic will be on something else .
I have seen this pattern so many times.

 

[diefree666]

I the NKs were anywhere near close enough as they claim to being able to launch a nuke on a missile then we would have done something serious by now. As crazy as he is it is certainly possible that China would make the first move. After all they are right next door and already in range of the crazy ones missiles.
Miniaturizing a warhead from bomb size to missile size takes a lot of work. And as unreliable as their launches have been I think this particular expert is way too optimistic about NKs capability.