Expect difficult negotiations for Bryant

[Doomsday101]

Jerry said yesterday

--The negotiations are ongoing with Dez and that it's not a matter of whether or not a deal will get done, just maybe exactly when.
--He wouldn't have been completely surprised him if Dez had gotten signed before Smith.
--That their offseason salary cap moves have been centered around making both Dez and Smith Dallas Cowboys for a long time.

this does not at all sound like huge issues are expected.

No we must have issues lol

 

[Rockport]

Dez is more than just a top notch receiver. He sets a lot of the emotional tone to this team. You have to get a guy like that signed. Playing games, waiting until the offseason, etc., is unacceptable.

They're not playing games. They're negotiating. Both sides will eventually compromise and Dez will get signed. Relax folks. No story here except for ESPN agenda following, talking heads.

 

[xwalker]

you would be paying him more than 12 mil a year if you franchise him and all the money hits each year. for close to franchise money i think you can sign him and spread the money out anyway you want. it would be silly to tag a guy for what you could sign him for

There are situations were the franchise tag would be better. If the team is concerned about injuries or behavioral issues, then the franchise tag is safer. It's a one year commitment of about 13.5M in this case as opposed to 40M+ of guaranteed money with a new contract.

You're correct that the tag hits the cap all in one year and can't be spread out like a long-term contract; however, the Cowboys have plenty of room to restructure other contracts to get the same net benefits. Even if they had to franchise him twice, that requires a 20% increase which would be 2.7M on top of the 13.5 for a total of 16.2M which is still not over Megatron's salary.

 

[Hoofbite]

The kicker here, is that with the loss of Jackson and Maclin coming back from an injury season...add in some drafted talent, and the Eagles are considered by those on the NFL Channel as having the very best talent in the division.

That's not the funny part...Washington is next.

The Eagles had a better offense and a better defense so it's not hard to see why people would say that.

As for Washington, I don't think they are more talented than Dallas but I also don't think it's that ridiculous for someone to think they do. There's not a lot that separates any of the teams in the East. It's a pretty weak division.

 

[Hoofbite]

you would be paying him more than 12 mil a year if you franchise him and all the money hits each year. for close to franchise money i think you can sign him and spread the money out anyway you want. it would be silly to tag a guy for what you could sign him for

His cap figure is going to have to be close to franchise money every year, or probably slightly above for 4 of the 5 years if the team wants a discount year.

The team would be wise to just accept that great players cost a lot and try to keep his cap figure as consistent as possible between years so they don't get put into a situation where they see a $5M-$6M jump.

 

[lostar2009]

Some unreasonable suggestions here. 10-12 won't get it done. These are the players who make between 10-12 mill a year. Mike Wallace makes 12 mill a year. Bowe is at 11.2. Vincent Jackson 11.1. Harvin 10.7. Brandon Marshall is at 10.0.

None of those receivers are in Dez's class. Perhaps he isn't in the class of Johnson or Fitzgerald. But he's clearly better than the 10-12 million guys.

I disagree, when those guys sign their contract they were on top. Also as I recall Vincent Jackson school us severely. You can say some of these guys production slip due to stability in the qb dept.

 

[lostar2009]

The team would be wise to sign him before Damaryius Thomas, Julio Jones and A.J. Green all get their new contracts.

Particularly Green because the Bengals have a hell of a lot of cap space and can afford just about any price Green would ask for.

Denver will have a good chunk as well and they're in the window where they have to make the very most of the team they have.

His cap figure wasn't going to stay at $3M forever. Sign him to an extension now and utilize some of the free cap space that they currently have to help pull his numbers down for the new added years. Add 5 years and utilize the space now to effectively spread his money over 6 years. The final year of the contract wouldn't have money prorated to it so the team could have an increase in base salary equivalent to 20% of the signing bonus going into the last year and they wouldn't take any additional cap charge.

I think we should wait to see the Damaryius Thomas contract. Dez and Damaryius but up very similar numbers.

 

[Galian Beast]

I think we should wait to see the Damaryius Thomas contract. Dez and Damaryius but up very similar numbers.

I think it's best to let him play this year out and franchise him next year if necessary. We'll see the WR rates fall, and the number he has should in mind should fall.

 

[Hoofbite]

I think one thing to keep in mind when trying to compare players and their salaries is that significant portions of all these high contract numbers may as well not even exist.

Larry Fitz is currently 30 years old, soon to be 31. His cap figure jumps $15M next year to $23M. The Cardinals already have a high cap figure and would free up $9M by cutting him. If they cut him, he doesn't see almost $50M of that $113M contract. Basically what he really got was a 4 year, $64M deal.

Same thing with Calvin. 7 years, $113M. At 28 and turning 29 in September he'll be 30 going on 31 in 2016 and he'll have a $24M cap charge versus $12M to cut. If he's cut he doesn't see $57M of that $113M. Basically a 4 year, $56M deal.

Both are still large contracts and have high averages, but what a player has signed for and what they are likely to make are often two different amounts.

Over 30 years old and on the free agent market isn't a recipe for a huge payday. These two (and perhaps Dez) may be good enough to play well into their 30s provided the good fortune of health, but if the last three years of their contracts have nearly unjustifiable cap charges, they'll have to rely on free agency to make up their lost dollars if their teams have to cut them.

Nobody is going to sign a would-be 32-year-old Larry to the 3 year, $50M contract it would take for him to realize the total amount of his current deal. And nobody is going to sign a would-be 31 y/o Calvin to the 3 year, $57M contract it would take for him to hit his current total.

If those guys are cut, they'll get less simply because of age.

The point I'm trying to make is Dez (and all big time players who aren't QBs) would be smart to shoot for a lower overall total in order to increases his likelihood of playing out the entire contract.

You could give him a contract that averages a good bit less over the total length but will ultimately pay him more because he doesn't price himself off the team at 30 years old.

If you gave him a 7 year, $86M contract he could make $56M in the first 4 years and be right on par with Calvin, and then make $30M for the last 3. He would average $12.2M per season but unless Calvin could pull more than $10M/year as a 31 year old free agent, he would ultimately make just as much and possibly more before it's all said and done.

Because Dallas can utilize the current year and cap space they have they could basically look at the contract as a 8 years, $87M because his current base salary is $1M. Add $5M to his cap number this year to take some of the future cap numbers down.

Give him $15M in SB that spreads across this year and the first 4 years of the new portion.

2014: Base: $3M + $4M Prorated ($1M from current contract) = $7M Cap Figure

2015: Base: 9.75M + $3M Prorated = $12.75M Cap Figure

2016: Base: 9.75M + $3M Prorated = $12.75M Cap Figure

2017: Base: 9.75M + $3M Prorated = $12.75M Cap Figure

2018: Base: 9.75M + $3M Prorated = $12.75M Cap Figure

$41M in new base salaries and $15M in signing bonus. He is paid just as well as Calvin thus far, but he doesn't have to hope that the free agent market will come through.

Year 5 has no prorated money and you have to have an assurance for him remaining on the roster. $15M option bonus that will be prorated when the time comes. Base salaries at $5M from there on out.

2019: $5M Base, $5M option proration, Cap Figure = $10M

2020: $5M Base, $5M option proration, Cap Figure = $10M

2021: $5M Base, $5M option proration, Cap Figure = $10M

The large proration endures he plays at least years 5 and 6 because there's no benefit in cutting him. If they cut him year 5 he's in the exact same boat as Calvin but his contract didn't have the extra $27M in unobtainable money that amounts to nothing more than "street cred".

Dez averages $12.2M over the new years that are added but Dallas gets to take advantage of the current situation and effectively make it a $10.75M average for this year plus the additional 7 years.

Will those other guys be cut? I dunno but they have positioned themselves to be cut by having cap values that are nearly impossible to justify.

Bottom line. Averages are pretty meaningless. If Calvin is cut he'll have actually averaged a full $2M less than his contract was written for.

 

[Hoofbite]

I think it's best to let him play this year out and franchise him next year if necessary. We'll see the WR rates fall, and the number he has should in mind should fall.

Why would the rates fall? Some of the best WRs in the league are poised to be free agents and people are always anticipating a bump in the cap.

When have any position rates fell over the past decade?

I think they should sign him ASAP to avoid having Cincy set the market. The have $23M in space right now and less than $100 committed to next year. What's that after rolling it over, $50M in cap room next year?

More importantly, signing him this year allows prorated money to apply to this year which brings the cost:benefit cut point closer just in case the contract goes south.

I don't see any advantage to waiting on Dez other than thinking he'll get hurt, which doesn't really make a case for waiting at all because if he could get hurt this year then he could get hurt any year and you shouldn't sign him in the first place.

 

[Galian Beast]

Why would the rates fall? Some of the best WRs in the league are poised to be free agents and people are always anticipating a bump in the cap.

When have any position rates fell over the past decade?

I think they should sign him ASAP to avoid having Cincy set the market. The have $23M in space right now and less than $100 committed to next year. What's that after rolling it over, $50M in cap room next year?

More importantly, signing him this year allows prorated money to apply to this year which brings the cost:benefit cut point closer just in case the contract goes south.

I don't see any advantage to waiting on Dez other than thinking he'll get hurt, which doesn't really make a case for waiting at all because if he could get hurt this year then he could get hurt any year and you shouldn't sign him in the first place.

They'll fall because we've seen them fall. The current top rate for WRs is 16 million dollars, as a percentage of the overall cap, this is probably the highest it has ever been. Most new WR deals are about 10 million. This is normalization.

As for other positions you've seen running back rates fall as well as defensive ends and defensive tackles.

 

[Jenky]

I don't believe salaries will fall. Each player (AJ, Demaryius, Julio, Dez) will be looking to "one up" each other. This is why I think you sign Dez now for as cheapest as you can, because when AJ signs his, the price of signing Dez Bryant late will mostly likely go up.

If I'm Dez Bryant, I stay pat and let a peer sign a contract first before I negotiate for one. The salary cap will increase and then you factor in inflation.

If I'm Dallas, I try to sign him now, before someone from Dez's bracket gets paid and jacks up the price.

 

[Hoofbite]

They'll fall because we've seen them fall. The current top rate for WRs is 16 million dollars, as a percentage of the overall cap, this is probably the highest it has ever been. Most new WR deals are about 10 million. This is normalization.[\quote]

That's because none of these new deals are for Calvin Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald. Those are the only 2 guys with that average.

Just because Mike Wallace signed for $12M doesn't meant Larry Fitzgerald or Calvin would.

As for other positions you've seen running back rates fall as well as defensive ends and defensive tackles.

RB seems like that would be the case but I dunno. 2009 LT and Steven Jackson were the top 2 RBs on free agent contracts with cap figures of $7.5M. Reggie was on the old jacked rookie scale so I'm not looking at him. 7 players have 2014 cap figures that are higher.

I think there are a couple explanations for any possible decline in averages that might exist, most significant being the draft scale changing.

I don't think looking for the price to go down is wise because it's probably not.

 

[Galian Beast]

I don't believe salaries will fall. Each player (AJ, Demaryius, Julio, Dez) will be looking to "one up" each other. This is why I think you sign Dez now for as cheapest as you can, because when AJ signs his, the price of signing Dez Bryant late will mostly likely go up.

If I'm Dez Bryant, I stay pat and let a peer sign a contract first before I negotiate for one. The salary cap will increase and then you factor in inflation.

If I'm Dallas, I try to sign him now, before someone from Dez's bracket gets paid and jacks up the price.

They've already begun to fall, it isn't up for much debate. Nelson got a 9.6 million dollar contract after the top contracts went to 16 million... Wes Welker was signed for 6 million dollars. Vincent Jackson got 11 million dollars. Brandon Marshall got 10 million dollars. Victor Cruz got 8.6 million.

DeSean Jackson was the top receiver in free agency this year, and he only got 8 million.


That's what we call flatlining. The demand for any particular wide receivers is not longer climbing. Can someone get 12 or 13 million? Sure, but that isn't real escalation, that market has come and gone.

 

[Galian Beast]

Hard to make heads or tails of your response, but let me reiterate, you might still see salaries increasing because the salary cap is increasing, but as a percentage of the salary cap, these figures are flatlining.

 

[Jenky]

They've already begun to fall, it isn't up for much debate. Nelson got a 9.6 million dollar contract after the top contracts went to 16 million... Wes Welker was signed for 6 million dollars. Vincent Jackson got 11 million dollars. Brandon Marshall got 10 million dollars. Victor Cruz got 8.6 million.

DeSean Jackson was the top receiver in free agency this year, and he only got 8 million.


That's what we call flatlining. The demand for any particular wide receivers is not longer climbing. Can someone get 12 or 13 million? Sure, but that isn't real escalation, that market has come and gone.

Those guys are all older and arguably in a lower tier.

 

[CCBoy]

I think one thing to keep in mind when trying to compare players and their salaries is that significant portions of all these high contract numbers may as well not even exist.

Larry Fitz is currently 30 years old, soon to be 31. His cap figure jumps $15M next year to $23M. The Cardinals already have a high cap figure and would free up $9M by cutting him. If they cut him, he doesn't see almost $50M of that $113M contract. Basically what he really got was a 4 year, $64M deal.

Same thing with Calvin. 7 years, $113M. At 28 and turning 29 in September he'll be 30 going on 31 in 2016 and he'll have a $24M cap charge versus $12M to cut. If he's cut he doesn't see $57M of that $113M. Basically a 4 year, $56M deal.

Both are still large contracts and have high averages, but what a player has signed for and what they are likely to make are often two different amounts.

Over 30 years old and on the free agent market isn't a recipe for a huge payday. These two (and perhaps Dez) may be good enough to play well into their 30s provided the good fortune of health, but if the last three years of their contracts have nearly unjustifiable cap charges, they'll have to rely on free agency to make up their lost dollars if their teams have to cut them.

Nobody is going to sign a would-be 32-year-old Larry to the 3 year, $50M contract it would take for him to realize the total amount of his current deal. And nobody is going to sign a would-be 31 y/o Calvin to the 3 year, $57M contract it would take for him to hit his current total.

If those guys are cut, they'll get less simply because of age.

The point I'm trying to make is Dez (and all big time players who aren't QBs) would be smart to shoot for a lower overall total in order to increases his likelihood of playing out the entire contract.

You could give him a contract that averages a good bit less over the total length but will ultimately pay him more because he doesn't price himself off the team at 30 years old.

If you gave him a 7 year, $86M contract he could make $56M in the first 4 years and be right on par with Calvin, and then make $30M for the last 3. He would average $12.2M per season but unless Calvin could pull more than $10M/year as a 31 year old free agent, he would ultimately make just as much and possibly more before it's all said and done.

Because Dallas can utilize the current year and cap space they have they could basically look at the contract as a 8 years, $87M because his current base salary is $1M. Add $5M to his cap number this year to take some of the future cap numbers down.

Give him $15M in SB that spreads across this year and the first 4 years of the new portion.

2014: Base: $3M + $4M Prorated ($1M from current contract) = $7M Cap Figure

2015: Base: 9.75M + $3M Prorated = $12.75M Cap Figure

2016: Base: 9.75M + $3M Prorated = $12.75M Cap Figure

2017: Base: 9.75M + $3M Prorated = $12.75M Cap Figure

2018: Base: 9.75M + $3M Prorated = $12.75M Cap Figure

$41M in new base salaries and $15M in signing bonus. He is paid just as well as Calvin thus far, but he doesn't have to hope that the free agent market will come through.

Year 5 has no prorated money and you have to have an assurance for him remaining on the roster. $15M option bonus that will be prorated when the time comes. Base salaries at $5M from there on out.

2019: $5M Base, $5M option proration, Cap Figure = $10M

2020: $5M Base, $5M option proration, Cap Figure = $10M

2021: $5M Base, $5M option proration, Cap Figure = $10M

The large proration endures he plays at least years 5 and 6 because there's no benefit in cutting him. If they cut him year 5 he's in the exact same boat as Calvin but his contract didn't have the extra $27M in unobtainable money that amounts to nothing more than "street cred".

Dez averages $12.2M over the new years that are added but Dallas gets to take advantage of the current situation and effectively make it a $10.75M average for this year plus the additional 7 years.

Will those other guys be cut? I dunno but they have positioned themselves to be cut by having cap values that are nearly impossible to justify.

Bottom line. Averages are pretty meaningless. If Calvin is cut he'll have actually averaged a full $2M less than his contract was written for.

This was quality, and thanks for a great read...

 

[lostar2009]

I think it's best to let him play this year out and franchise him next year if necessary. We'll see the WR rates fall, and the number he has should in mind should fall.

Wide receiver numbers never fall. Besides a qb...on offense they are the second highest paid.

 

[Hoofbite]

Hard to make heads or tails of your response, but let me reiterate, you might still see salaries increasing because the salary cap is increasing, but as a percentage of the salary cap, these figures are flatlining.

Yeah I'm on the phone and splitting quotes is tough to follow. Didn't catch it in time.

 

[Galian Beast]

Wide receiver numbers never fall. Besides a qb...on offense they are the second highest paid.

Once again, you've already seen it.