Final 2014 Aikman Efficiency Ratings

[honyock]

I meant to post this last week and never had the time.

Here are the final Aikman Efficiency Ratings for the regular season. The Cowboys finished #3 on offense, #15 on defense, and #5 overall (offense and defense combined.)

http://www.aikman.com/AikmanEfficie.../79/Final-2014-Aikman-Efficiency-Ratings.aspx

The ratings are below, but first a couple of observations.

Aikman's ratings have historically have been very accurate in predicting playoff teams, and this year was no different. The top six teams overall are still alive in the playoffs (Broncos, Seahawks, Packers, Patriots, Cowboys, Ravens). The other two remaining team were the Colts at #11 and the Panthers at #20 (who obviously benefited from playing in a division that sucked).

The Cowboys defense snuck into the top half of the league at #15 in Week 17. That's a pretty amazing turnaround from 2013, when they ranked #32 in both the Aikman ratings and the NFL rankings. This for a defense that was without Ware, Hatcher and Lee from a historically bad defense the year before. Call it what you want, big help from the offense, Marinelli magic, whatever, but that is just a great turnaround in one year for a defense that was predicted to be maybe worse than 2013.

The Texans just barely passed the Lions in week 17 to take the top spot on defense. As Aikman said after the game, that Lions defense was very, very good. The Lions downfall ended up being their offense, which was the lowest rated at #21 of all the playoff offenses.

Overall:

Rank Record Team
1 12-4 Broncos
2 12-4 Seahawks
3 12-4 Packers
4 12-4 Patriots
5 12-4 Cowboys
6 10-6 Ravens
7 9-7 Texans
8 9-7 Chiefs
9 11-5 Lions
10 10-5-1 Bengals
11 11-5 Colts
12 11-5 Steelers
13 8-8 Dolphins
14 9-7 Bills
15 10-6 Eagle
16 6-10 Giants
17 11-5 Cardinals
18 6-10 Falcons
19 6-10 Rams
20 7-8-1 Panthers
21 9-7 Chargers
22 8-8 49ers
23 7-9 Saints
24 7-9 Vikings
25 7-9 Browns
26 5-11 Bears
27 4-12 Commanders
28 3-13 Raiders
29 4-12 Jets
30 3-13 Jaguars
31 2-14 Buccaneers
32 2-14 Titans

Offense

Aik NFL Team AER
1 6 Packers 92.1
2 4 Broncos 91.2
3 7 Cowboys 90.9
4 11 Patriots 89.8
5 9 Seahawks 87.6
6 1 Saints 87.5
7 2 Steelers 86.7
8 8 Falcons 85.3
9 3 Colts 85.0
10 12 Ravens 84.8
11 25 Chiefs 83.4
12 14 Dolphins 82.3
13 15 Bengals 82.1
14 10 Giants 81.4
15 5 Eagles 81.0
16 17 Texans 80.7
17 16 Panthers 80.3
18 18 Chargers 80.2
19 27 Vikings 78.2
20 21 Bears 78.0
21 19 Lions 78.0
22 20 49ers 75.8
23 24 Cardinals 75.6
24 13 Commanders 75.2
25 28 Rams 74.6
26 32 Raiders 73.6
27 26 Bills 73.5
28 23 Browns 73.4
29 22 Jets 73.2
30 29 Titans 70.4
31 30 Buccaneers 69.8
32 31 Jaguars 67.9

NFL Average 80.4

Defense

Aik NFL Team AER
1 16 Texans 77.8
2 2 Lions 77.6
3 4 Bills 76.9
4 1 Seahawks 75.5
5 8 Ravens 75.2
6 17 Rams 74.5
7 24 Cardinals 74.3
8 7 Chiefs 73.3
9 3 Broncos 73.3
10 22 Bengals 72.4
11 23 Browns 72.2
12 13 Patriots 71.9
13 5 49ers 71.1
14 15 Packers 70.2
15 19 Cowboys 69.6
16 11 Colts 69.5
17 28 Eagles 69.1
18 12 Dolphins 68.8
19 29 Giants 68.5
20 10 Panthers 68.0
21 14 Vikings 67.9
22 9 Chargers 67.6
23 26 Jaguars 67.4
24 18 Steelers 66.0
25 30 Bears 65.9
26 20 Commanders 65.6
27 25 Buccaneers 64.7
28 21 Raiders 64.4
29 6 Jets 64.4
30 32 Falcons 64.2
31 27 Titans 60.9
32 31 Saints 58.8

NFL Average 69.6

 

[percyhoward]

The teams in Aikman's Ratings ended up being similar to those in Points Per Drive. Both had the Chiefs at #8, but PPD had the Colts where Aikman had the Texans.

bold = remaining playoff team

Points Per Drive Differential
1 GB
2 NE
3 Sea
4 Den
5 Dal
6 Ind
7 Bal
8 KC

21 Car


Pass Rating Differential
1 GB
2 Dal
3 Den
4 Sea
5 NE
6 Buf
7 Cin
8 Ind

18 Bal

21 Car


Football Outsiders' DVOA
1 Sea
2 Den
3 GB
4 NE
5 Bal
6 Dal
7 Phi
8 Pit

12 Ind

25 Car

 

[Idgit]

Thanks, honyock. This is great. It's always interesting to see how effectively the AERs slot the teams. We've got our work cut out for us still if we're going to keep climbing that defensive list, huh?

It's looking like we're going to need some big-play help to get by the next two games, at least. Hopefully, our defense has outperformed our season ranking by a significant margin during this current win-streak.

 

[honyock]

Thanks, honyock. This is great. It's always interesting to see how effectively the AERs slot the teams. We've got our work cut out for us still if we're going to keep climbing that defensive list, huh?

It's looking like we're going to need some big-play help to get by the next two games, at least. Hopefully, our defense has outperformed our season ranking by a significant margin during this current win-streak.

Yep, I agree, we'll need a talent influx in the offseason to improve on this year. And can we keep some linebackers healthy for a change?

 

[guag]

Exactly at the NFL average in defense. I'll take it.

 

[Idgit]

Exactly at the NFL average in defense. I'll take it.

We said at the start of the season that this was a playoff team if it was just mediocre on defense. It just looked impossible to be mediocre on defense. Never been so happy to just be average before. Now I see what life is like for the rest of you guys, and I'm kind of jealous.

 

[poost]

Would be interesting to see AER from the Chicago game on.

 

[honyock]

Would be interesting to see AER from the Chicago game on.

After the Thanksgiving game against the Eagles, the Cowboys were #13 overall (now #5), were #6 on offense (#3 now), and were #22 on defense (now #15).

To say both the offense and defense had a good December is putting it mildly.