Fisher: Cowboys 1st Round Grades

[BrAinPaiNt]

FULL ARTICLE

IRVING (CBSDFW.COM) - There are 32 first-round picks in Thursday’s NFL Draft. But that doesn’t mean there are 32 players with first-round grades.

The feeling inside Dallas Cowboys headquarters at Valley Ranch is that approximately 16 prospects are worthy of first-round grades (with two “on-the-bubble’’ guys right after them). Dallas picks at No. 18, with hopes that a couple of teams above them make selections that don’t jibe with the Cowboys’ rankings, thereby pushing talent down to 18. (Example: The possibility that Buffalo will take a quarterback at No. 8, even though Dallas doesn’t rank a QB in the top 18 prospects.)

If the board doesn’t fall the Cowboys’ way, they’ll be left with two options: One, trade down from 18 for equivalent value by getting a pick in the early 30’s and a late second-rounder; or two, if that fails, “reach’’ for a player at 18 who doesn’t truly merit that pick.

 

[ufcrules1]

I would hope that we get a player on our board but if not we go with option one and get a player in the early 30's and then again at the end of the 2nd round.

 

[erod]

I get so sick of the "first round grades" aspect of these drafts, just like I hate hearing how this draft is a deep draft, and that one isn't, blah, blah, blah.

Scouts - and especially so-called draft experts - don't know much more than we do, other than they've finagled a job that allows them to do it all day long while we work our jobs and learn all the names and ask around.

Here's a hint, draft-expert dorks.

You gave Ryan Leaf a "first round grade". Same for Heath Shuler, Curtis Enis, Vernon Gholston, Braylon Edwards, and thousands of others that never panned out.

And you DIDN'T give a "first-round grade" to Larry Allen, Jason Witten, Charles Haley, Darren Woodson, Leon Lett, Erik Williams, Daryl Johnston, Jay Novacek....same for Tom Brady, Arian Foster, Priest Holmes, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, and about a million other star players.

Half the first round will bust, and 20-30 players will be taken in rounds 5-7 that will have long, very productive NFL careers. And you 'experts" have no idea which ones will be which.

 

[JoaquinFenix]

As has been widely reported, the Cowboys supposedly have 16 players graded as 1st round prospects. According to Mike Fisher, sources have "suggested" that the following 16 players (plus two bubble prospects) comprise the Cowboys 1st round draft board:

Group A (not necessarily in this order, per Fisher):

1. Luke Joeckel
2. Eric Fisher
3. Sharrif Floyd
4. Star Lotulelei
5. Dee Milliner

Group B:

1. Lane Johnson
2. Ezekiel Ansah
3. Dion Jordan
4. Jonathan Cooper
5. Chance Warmack

Group C:

1. Tavon Austin
2. Barkevious Mingo
3. Sheldon Richardson
4. Xavier Rhodes
5. Sylvester Williams

Group D (includes bubble 1st rounders):

1. Tyler Eifert
2. Codarrelle Patterson
3. Kenny Vaccaro

 

[TheRomoSexual]

Interesting stuff. I don't mind that list whatsoever. My only major difference is that I would put Rhodes in group D and Eifert in group c.

 

[skinsscalper]

I'm glad that Cooper, Warmack, and Williams are on the list. It increases our odds of actually picking one of them at 18 and not trading down.

 

[jterrell]

interesting.

Fisher got a lot of data straight form Jerry previously.
This has a real chance to be accurate.

I like the list. I note that if 2 QBs get drafted we'll get one of the 16 guys we rate a r1.

Teams may also need to buy into our area to get the top QB. If none of the QBs rate an R1 then they are probably at the top of r2 choices for Buffalo and the Jets. Neither team can likely wait til r2 so they'll need to get into the second half of r1 to insure they get the QB they want.

I also wonder if we'd take Xavier Rhodes and play him at safety.

 

[jterrell]

also looks like the highest rated player we can hope possibly drops is one of the guards.

 

[CyberB0b]

Group B is scary, outside of Warmack and Cooper.

 

[AsthmaField]

also looks like the highest rated player we can hope possibly drops is one of the guards.

Or Sheldon Richardson. He is one of my pet cats so I'm really hoping it happens.

I doubt it does though.

 

[TheRomoSexual]

also looks like the highest rated player we can hope possibly drops is one of the guards.

Well, I'd say it also indicates that we may look to trade up if Star or Johnson falls.

 

[AsthmaField]

Group B is scary, outside of Warmack and Cooper.

I agree with you on Ansah. While I do see his high upside, I just think he has too much bust potential for this team, going into this year. Dallas need immediate contributions from its first 2 or 3 guys.

Well, I'd say it also indicates that we may look to trade up if Star or Johnson falls.

Or Floyd for that matter.

 

[skinsscalper]

Well, I'd say it also indicates that we may look to trade up if Star or Johnson falls.

Jones isn't trading up this year. We need every pick we've got. Better odds of trading down.

 

[DFWJC]

As has been widely reported, the Cowboys supposedly have 16 players graded as 1st round prospects. According to Mike Fisher, sources have "suggested" that the following 16 players (plus two bubble prospects) comprise the Cowboys 1st round draft board:

Group A (not necessarily in this order, per Fisher):

1. Luke Joeckel
2. Eric Fisher
3. Sharrif Floyd
4. Star Lotulelei
5. Dee Milliner

Group B:

1. Lane Johnson
2. Ezekiel Ansah
3. Dion Jordan
4. Jonathan Cooper
5. Chance Warmack

Group C:

1. Tavon Austin
2. Barkevious Mingo
3. Sheldon Richardson
4. Xavier Rhodes
5. Sylvester Williams

Group D (includes bubble 1st rounders):

1. Tyler Eifert
2. Codarrelle Patterson
3. Kenny Vaccaro

Grouping players in sub-tiers like this is really helpful when considering trades--up or down. Far better than just a straight up list because the talent/value breaks are visable.

Say in theory that this list is remotely accurate...
They are picking in Group D (18th pick) so if a group B player is within 2-3 spots of them, in some years, that could signal a trade up.

Or if the 18th pick comes up and 4 guys from group C (slim chance) and another 1-2 from group D are there, they may accept a trade down as many as 4 -5 spots.

You have to think if pick 18 comes up and any player in Group C or better is there, they will take that player and not look back--espcially if there is only one or two of them left.
I'm a little concerned about Rhodes though. It'd be tough taking a CB in Rd1.

 

[StanleySpadowski]

I doubt this is accurate at all. Teams typically have a few players with 1st round grades that none of the "experts" do...Sean Lee anyone?...and that varies by each team.

We've seen screen shots of Dallas' board in the past and it's never failed that someone in the top 10 if off the board or graded at least a round lower and someone is graded a round or two higher than everyone thought.

 

[TheRomoSexual]

Jones isn't trading up this year. We need every pick we've got. Better odds of trading down.

Never speak in certainties when it comes to Jerry.

 

[jterrell]

Or Sheldon Richardson. He is one of my pet cats so I'm really hoping it happens.

I doubt it does though.

Richardson is the gleam in my eye out of the entire draft class but he is in group C here.

The highest from this list that could possibly drop would be the OGs in group B.

 

[jterrell]

I doubt this is accurate at all. Teams typically have a few players with 1st round grades that none of the "experts" do...Sean Lee anyone?...and that varies by each team.

We've seen screen shots of Dallas' board in the past and it's never failed that someone in the top 10 if off the board or graded at least a round lower and someone is graded a round or two higher than everyone thought.

agreed....
but fisher has never reported the board before.

we are talking about a media guy who co-authored jerry jones auto-biography.

 

[AsthmaField]

Richardson is the gleam in my eye out of the entire draft class but he is in group C here.

The highest from this list that could possibly drop would be the OGs in group B.

Yeah, I know you were right about that.

I guess in my mind, I have Richardson with those two guys and my brain went ahead and lumped them together. :

 

[speedkilz88]

From the article (just so you know)

For now, what sources suggest to me are the 16 (plus maybe two) prospects earning first-round grades from the Cowboys (possibly clustered as below but not necessarily in this specific order):