Zordon
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They have us simulated as the #1 seed in the conference right now at 11.5 wins.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/nfl-week-7-elo-ratings-and-playoff-odds/
The Seattle Seahawks, No. 1 in our NFL Elo ratings since the start of the season, have relinquished that position after losing 30-23 at home against the Dallas Cowboys. The new Elo No. 1 probably won’t cause much controversy: It’s the Denver Broncos, who are also the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl and the top-rated team in ESPN’s panel of experts. But after that, there’s more disagreement. Should Dallas — now 5-1 and having won against Seattle head-to-head — rank ahead of the 3-2 Seahawks?
The experts panel thinks so: It now has Dallas at No. 3 and Seattle at No. 5. But betting odds still prefer Seattle. The prices at Betfair imply Seattle has a 13 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl; Dallas is at 6 percent.
Elo’s answer somewhat splits the difference. It still has the Seahawks ranked about 50 Elo points higher than Dallas, which translates to Seattle being 2-point favorites in a game played on a neutral field. The gap has closed: At the start of the season, Elo would have had the Seahawks favored by a touchdown in a neutral-site game. However, Elo ratings take past seasons into account. In the system’s estimation, Seattle’s accomplishments from last year still matter enough to outweigh what the Cowboys have done so far this year.
But the Cowboys’ strong start does count for a lot. Because of it, they project to 11.5 wins on the season, as compared with 10 wins for Seattle. Dallas also plays in the easier division and otherwise has the easier schedule, having survived some of its tougher games.
In fact, the Seahawks are at risk of missing the playoffs entirely. In part because San Francisco (No. 3 overall in the Elo ratings) and Arizona (No. 7) also play in the NFC West, Seattle made the postseason only 60 percent of the time in this week’s simulations. Dallas, conversely, made the playoffs 82 percent of the time. Seattle is more likely to win the Super Bowl conditional upon making the playoffs. But since Dallas is more likely to make the playoffs in the first place, the teams’ overall Super Bowl chances are about the same according to Elo: 9 percent for the Seahawks and 8 percent for the Cowboys.
Here are the playoff odds for the those two, and the other 30 NFL teams:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/nfl-week-7-elo-ratings-and-playoff-odds/
The Seattle Seahawks, No. 1 in our NFL Elo ratings since the start of the season, have relinquished that position after losing 30-23 at home against the Dallas Cowboys. The new Elo No. 1 probably won’t cause much controversy: It’s the Denver Broncos, who are also the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl and the top-rated team in ESPN’s panel of experts. But after that, there’s more disagreement. Should Dallas — now 5-1 and having won against Seattle head-to-head — rank ahead of the 3-2 Seahawks?
The experts panel thinks so: It now has Dallas at No. 3 and Seattle at No. 5. But betting odds still prefer Seattle. The prices at Betfair imply Seattle has a 13 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl; Dallas is at 6 percent.
Elo’s answer somewhat splits the difference. It still has the Seahawks ranked about 50 Elo points higher than Dallas, which translates to Seattle being 2-point favorites in a game played on a neutral field. The gap has closed: At the start of the season, Elo would have had the Seahawks favored by a touchdown in a neutral-site game. However, Elo ratings take past seasons into account. In the system’s estimation, Seattle’s accomplishments from last year still matter enough to outweigh what the Cowboys have done so far this year.
But the Cowboys’ strong start does count for a lot. Because of it, they project to 11.5 wins on the season, as compared with 10 wins for Seattle. Dallas also plays in the easier division and otherwise has the easier schedule, having survived some of its tougher games.
In fact, the Seahawks are at risk of missing the playoffs entirely. In part because San Francisco (No. 3 overall in the Elo ratings) and Arizona (No. 7) also play in the NFC West, Seattle made the postseason only 60 percent of the time in this week’s simulations. Dallas, conversely, made the playoffs 82 percent of the time. Seattle is more likely to win the Super Bowl conditional upon making the playoffs. But since Dallas is more likely to make the playoffs in the first place, the teams’ overall Super Bowl chances are about the same according to Elo: 9 percent for the Seahawks and 8 percent for the Cowboys.
Here are the playoff odds for the those two, and the other 30 NFL teams:
