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http://www.footballoutsiders.com/game-previews/2010/2009-nfc-wild-card-preview
Philadelphia at Dallas
For the Philadelphia-Dallas game, we have a special present for readers. Since the first half of the first Philadelphia-Dallas game was absent from our game charting, I prepared for this preview by charting the first halves of both games, one after the other. To share with everyone a sample of the kind of data we get from charting, we're going to make these spreadsheets available for download absolutely free. Click here to get both first halves of charting, and feel free to make your own observations in the comments.
One fact I'm not sure where to fit in: It is interesting to note that both the Eagles and Cowboys were worse in the red zone than they were overall, on both sides of the ball.
WHEN THE EAGLES HAVE THE BALL
First of all, I just have to say... Wheeeeeee! Look at that graph. Man, is that a roller coaster ride, or what?
As for when the Eagles have the ball, I don't know which would surprise fans more -- that DVOA ranks the Eagles offense only 10th in the league, or that DVOA ranks the Cowboys defense only 10th in the league. However, the difference between them is that the Cowboys defense has been improving in recent weeks. Through Week 9, Dallas ranked 23rd in pass defense DVOA and 15th in run defense DVOA. Since Week 10, the Cowboys rank ninth in both categories.
Dallas has the league's biggest gap between defense against shotgun formations (6.4 yards per play, 18th in DVOA) and defense against quarterbacks under center (4.3 yards per play, fourth in DVOA). This could be a problem since Philadelphia uses shotgun on an NFC-leading 47 percent of plays. However, the Cowboys defense went against this trend in the two regular-season meetings with Philadelphia, allowing an average of 5.1 yards per play with Donovan McNabb under center but just 4.7 yards per play with him (or Michael Vick) in shotgun.
Still, it might make most sense to spread out the Cowboys defense by throwing to as many different receivers as possible. Based on our DVOA numbers, the Cowboys are much better covering starting wide receivers than they are covering slot receivers, tight ends, or running backs. They had a particularly hard time last week covering tight end
Brent Celek. In two games against the Cowboys, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin have combined to catch just 38 percent of passes, each averaging about 40 yards per game. In particular, the Eagles haven't been hitting on those deep strikes to Jackson. In the two Dallas games, McNabb has completed only three of 16 passes to Jackson and Maclin that went 10 or more yards in the air, and the only one longer than 20 yards was a 31-yard completion to Maclin last week in the second quarter. Jackson had a 32-yard catch later on the same drive, but that catch was 8 yards in the air and 24 yards after the catch. In total, Maclin and Jackson have combined for three pass plays longer than 15 yards in two games against the Cowboys. Celek had four pass plays longer than 15 yards just in last week alone, and all the other Eagles have combined for eight pass plays longer than 15 yards in the the two Cowboys games.
If the Eagles are going to send everyone out into patterns, that means they'll have to depend on their five linemen to protect against the Dallas pass rush. Left tackle Jason Peters will be very important, as he'll generally need to take on DeMarcus Ware one-on-one. Peters was injured and missed a few plays in the Week 9 game, and when Todd Herremans
moved over to left tackle, he had major problems with Ware. The Eagles helped both Peters and Herremans somewhat by lining up two tight ends on the right side and leaving one in to block, with everyone shifting left and the left guard helping the left tackle. However, that second tight end, Alex Smith, is a receiving-first tight end just like Celek. The Eagles really could have used a blocking-first backup tight end this season.
While the Eagles line has done a good job protecting McNabb, he tends to eat the ball when pressured. Philadelphia ranked second in fewest quarterback hits but 20th in Adjusted Sack Rate. Including plays cancelled by penalty, the average NFL
quarterback this season had 10 more quarterback hits than sacks. McNabb took 37 sacks but only 19 quarterback hits after passes. The Cowboys, meanwhile, didn't have quite the pass rush that they had in 2008, dropping from first in Adjusted Sack Rate to 12th.
The Eagles have a very efficient running game, when they feel like using it. Of course, since they're the Eagles, that's not very often. Philadelphia was dead last in the NFL with just 301 running back carries. If the Eagles do want to run, the weakness of the Cowboys run defense is on the offensive right, at least according to our Adjusted Line Yards stats.
There may be a lot of talk in the pregame about how Brian Westbrook has long been the focal point of the Philadelphia offense, but it's hard to tell if the Eagles have really gotten anything out of getting him back from knee injuries and post-concussion syndrome for the last two weeks of the season. Before he missed eight straight games, Westbrook averaged 4.8 yards per carry and 6.2 yards per pass. In the two games since his return, he's averaging 3.5 yards per carry and 2.8 yards per pass. He isn't bringing much to the table that LeSean McCoy doesn't bring as well, and unlike Leonard Weaver he's not a complimentary piece who is unique on the Eagles roster.
WHEN THE COWBOYS HAVE THE BALL
The most remarkable part of last week's Dallas victory was the way the Eagles completely abandoned their usual blitz-heavy defensive style. In plays we've charted through Week 13, the Eagles sent a big blitz of six or more pass rushers more often than any other team (23 percent of the time) and had a play marked as a zone blitz more often than any team except the Jets (13 percent of the time). In the first game with Dallas, the Eagles sent a big blitz nearly half the time and five or more 68 percent of the time, with six plays marked as zone blitzes. But when I charted the first half of last weekend's game, I marked only one play as a zone blitz and only two plays with more than the conventional four pass rushers, one with five and one with seven.
Why did the Eagles change their strategy? It turns out that in the first game with Dallas, their best defensive plays were the ones where they sent fewer pass rushers. In Week 9, the Eagles allowed only 1.7 yards per play on the 12 plays where they sent just three or four pass rushers. They allowed 6.0 yards per play on the 18 plays where they sent six or more pass rushers. But worst of all, they allowed 19.3 yards per play on eight plays with five pass rushers, including two conversions on third-and-14 and a huge 64-yard pass to Patrick Crayton that found a hole in zone coverage.
My guess is that the Eagles saw this on film, and decided that the best way to beat the Cowboys was to send a conventional pass rush and hang back in coverage against Tony Romo. It completely backfired. Romo took advantage of holes in zone coverage, Asante Samuel
misjudging his attempts to jump routes, and cornerbacks playing back and leaving room for wide receiver screens.
The best strategy for Philadelphia is probably to rotate standard rushes with big blitzes. Send four every time, and a quarterback knows what to expect. In addition, Romo was at his best when facing five pass rushers -- both in the first game between these teams and for the season as a whole.
Miles Austin has enjoyed a breakout season this year as the Cowboys' number one receiver, and it is interesting to note that while the Cowboys bounced him back and forth between the left and right sides in the first game, they utilized him almost strictly on the right side in the second game. That means Asante Samuel, not Sheldon Brown, will generally be covering Austin. Our charting numbers so far have Brown as one of the top cornerbacks in the league, with a 70 percent Success Rate, matched only by Darrelle Revis and -- get ready for a shock -- Jabari Greer of New Orleans. Samuel still has an above-average 63 percent Success Rate in plays charted so far, and he has allowed fewer yards per pass than Brown (5.6 compared to 5.9).
As Mike Tanier pointed out earlier this week, the Cowboys have started setting up their pass plays by running draws, and they did this a lot against the Eagles in Week 17. They also put themselves into advantageous situations by getting consistent yardage on first down. Dallas ranks fourth overall in offensive DVOA on first down -- including first running the ball -- while the Philadelphia defense is much worse on first down (17th in DVOA) than it is on second (first) or third (fourth). The Cowboys also had the lowest three-and-out rate in the league, going three-and-out on just 16.2 percent of drives.
Fullback Deon Anderson
and tight end John Phillips could play a big role for Dallas in this game. Most teams gain more yardage on runs with just one back instead of two (partly because teams tend to go single-back in longer-yardage situations). However, the Cowboys average a yard more on runs with two backs, and the Eagles are one of just eight defenses to give up more yardage on runs with two backs (3.9) than on runs from single-back sets (3.6). Calling Phillips a tight end seems a bit silly, as I've never seen him actually line up in a tight end position anywhere other than the goal line. The Cowboys seem to have a very strict fullback rotation, where Anderson plays fullback when there are two wide receivers on the field and Phillips plays fullback in a three-tight end personnel set that also features Jason Witten and Martellus Bennett.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Philadelphia had a good year on special teams overall; they were second in the FO ratings, although Cleveland was so far ahead that the Eagles finished closer to 18th place than they did to first. The Eagles are a good example of why it is a bit silly for the NFL to name one combined punt and kickoff returner for the Pro Bowl -- these are two different jobs with different sets of skills, usually done by different players. The Eagles were first in the league on punt returns, thanks to Pro Bowl return man DeSean Jackson, but 27th in the league on kickoff returns, where the job rotated between Jeremy Maclin, Macho Harris, and the now-injured Ellis Hobbs (who was the best of the three).
The Cowboys had very specific strengths and weaknesses on special teams. They ranked third in net kickoff value, thanks in large part to rookie kickoff specialist David Buehler, who led the league with 29 touchbacks. The Cowboys also have a strong punt returner in Patrick Crayton. The biggest weakness of the Cowboys' special teams was placekicker Nick Folk, but that area hasn't been a problem since the Cowboys ditched Folk and signed Shaun Suisham. The Commanders really overreacted to Suisham going through a small midseason slump, and our numbers combining his time in both Washington and Dallas rate him as league-average this season. It's not like the Cowboys want to be stuck running him out there for a 52-yarder, down by three in the final minutes, but he's not really a problem either.
OUTLOOK
Fans look at the Cowboys over the past few Decembers, they look at their recent playoff record, and they look at the poorly-regarded Wade Phillips on the sideline, and they think the issue in this game is whether the Cowboys can play consistently good football. But based on what we've seen in 2009, the question isn't which Cowboys team will show up. It's which Eagles team will show up. Take a look at the Dallas week-to-week graph; the Cowboys have been extremely consistent this year. They're third in variance, and rank in the top ten for both offense and defense separately. The Eagles, on the other hand, rank 25th in variance. You saw the reasons last week when these teams played for the NFC East title. Nobody in the NFL is better at studying quarterback tendencies and jumping routes than Asante Samuel, but if he misses, you've got problems. Twice last week, Samuel tried to jump routes and gave up big plays, a touchdown pass to Jason Witten and a 40-yard pass to Miles Austin. Philadelphia's zone blitzes are often hit-or-miss -- if the pass rush doesn't get to Romo in time, you end up with something ridiculous like Jason Babin
trying to cover Miles Austin in the middle of the field (see: 11-yard gain with 3:28 left in the first quarter). We know McNabb's accuracy seems to come and go, and those deep bombs to a streaking DeSean Jackson are hit-and-miss. If McNabb hits one of those last week, if he doesn't drop a snap in the red zone, if one of those Samuel route-jumps gets a pick, it's a different game. This week, it probably will be. That different game will be a closer game -- but the Cowboys are still the favorite, because even when we ignore the issue of consistency, they've been the slightly better team over the past few weeks.
Philadelphia at Dallas
For the Philadelphia-Dallas game, we have a special present for readers. Since the first half of the first Philadelphia-Dallas game was absent from our game charting, I prepared for this preview by charting the first halves of both games, one after the other. To share with everyone a sample of the kind of data we get from charting, we're going to make these spreadsheets available for download absolutely free. Click here to get both first halves of charting, and feel free to make your own observations in the comments.
One fact I'm not sure where to fit in: It is interesting to note that both the Eagles and Cowboys were worse in the red zone than they were overall, on both sides of the ball.
WHEN THE EAGLES HAVE THE BALL
First of all, I just have to say... Wheeeeeee! Look at that graph. Man, is that a roller coaster ride, or what?
As for when the Eagles have the ball, I don't know which would surprise fans more -- that DVOA ranks the Eagles offense only 10th in the league, or that DVOA ranks the Cowboys defense only 10th in the league. However, the difference between them is that the Cowboys defense has been improving in recent weeks. Through Week 9, Dallas ranked 23rd in pass defense DVOA and 15th in run defense DVOA. Since Week 10, the Cowboys rank ninth in both categories.
Dallas has the league's biggest gap between defense against shotgun formations (6.4 yards per play, 18th in DVOA) and defense against quarterbacks under center (4.3 yards per play, fourth in DVOA). This could be a problem since Philadelphia uses shotgun on an NFC-leading 47 percent of plays. However, the Cowboys defense went against this trend in the two regular-season meetings with Philadelphia, allowing an average of 5.1 yards per play with Donovan McNabb under center but just 4.7 yards per play with him (or Michael Vick) in shotgun.
Still, it might make most sense to spread out the Cowboys defense by throwing to as many different receivers as possible. Based on our DVOA numbers, the Cowboys are much better covering starting wide receivers than they are covering slot receivers, tight ends, or running backs. They had a particularly hard time last week covering tight end
Brent Celek. In two games against the Cowboys, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin have combined to catch just 38 percent of passes, each averaging about 40 yards per game. In particular, the Eagles haven't been hitting on those deep strikes to Jackson. In the two Dallas games, McNabb has completed only three of 16 passes to Jackson and Maclin that went 10 or more yards in the air, and the only one longer than 20 yards was a 31-yard completion to Maclin last week in the second quarter. Jackson had a 32-yard catch later on the same drive, but that catch was 8 yards in the air and 24 yards after the catch. In total, Maclin and Jackson have combined for three pass plays longer than 15 yards in two games against the Cowboys. Celek had four pass plays longer than 15 yards just in last week alone, and all the other Eagles have combined for eight pass plays longer than 15 yards in the the two Cowboys games.If the Eagles are going to send everyone out into patterns, that means they'll have to depend on their five linemen to protect against the Dallas pass rush. Left tackle Jason Peters will be very important, as he'll generally need to take on DeMarcus Ware one-on-one. Peters was injured and missed a few plays in the Week 9 game, and when Todd Herremans
moved over to left tackle, he had major problems with Ware. The Eagles helped both Peters and Herremans somewhat by lining up two tight ends on the right side and leaving one in to block, with everyone shifting left and the left guard helping the left tackle. However, that second tight end, Alex Smith, is a receiving-first tight end just like Celek. The Eagles really could have used a blocking-first backup tight end this season.While the Eagles line has done a good job protecting McNabb, he tends to eat the ball when pressured. Philadelphia ranked second in fewest quarterback hits but 20th in Adjusted Sack Rate. Including plays cancelled by penalty, the average NFL
quarterback this season had 10 more quarterback hits than sacks. McNabb took 37 sacks but only 19 quarterback hits after passes. The Cowboys, meanwhile, didn't have quite the pass rush that they had in 2008, dropping from first in Adjusted Sack Rate to 12th.The Eagles have a very efficient running game, when they feel like using it. Of course, since they're the Eagles, that's not very often. Philadelphia was dead last in the NFL with just 301 running back carries. If the Eagles do want to run, the weakness of the Cowboys run defense is on the offensive right, at least according to our Adjusted Line Yards stats.
There may be a lot of talk in the pregame about how Brian Westbrook has long been the focal point of the Philadelphia offense, but it's hard to tell if the Eagles have really gotten anything out of getting him back from knee injuries and post-concussion syndrome for the last two weeks of the season. Before he missed eight straight games, Westbrook averaged 4.8 yards per carry and 6.2 yards per pass. In the two games since his return, he's averaging 3.5 yards per carry and 2.8 yards per pass. He isn't bringing much to the table that LeSean McCoy doesn't bring as well, and unlike Leonard Weaver he's not a complimentary piece who is unique on the Eagles roster.
WHEN THE COWBOYS HAVE THE BALL
The most remarkable part of last week's Dallas victory was the way the Eagles completely abandoned their usual blitz-heavy defensive style. In plays we've charted through Week 13, the Eagles sent a big blitz of six or more pass rushers more often than any other team (23 percent of the time) and had a play marked as a zone blitz more often than any team except the Jets (13 percent of the time). In the first game with Dallas, the Eagles sent a big blitz nearly half the time and five or more 68 percent of the time, with six plays marked as zone blitzes. But when I charted the first half of last weekend's game, I marked only one play as a zone blitz and only two plays with more than the conventional four pass rushers, one with five and one with seven.
Why did the Eagles change their strategy? It turns out that in the first game with Dallas, their best defensive plays were the ones where they sent fewer pass rushers. In Week 9, the Eagles allowed only 1.7 yards per play on the 12 plays where they sent just three or four pass rushers. They allowed 6.0 yards per play on the 18 plays where they sent six or more pass rushers. But worst of all, they allowed 19.3 yards per play on eight plays with five pass rushers, including two conversions on third-and-14 and a huge 64-yard pass to Patrick Crayton that found a hole in zone coverage.
My guess is that the Eagles saw this on film, and decided that the best way to beat the Cowboys was to send a conventional pass rush and hang back in coverage against Tony Romo. It completely backfired. Romo took advantage of holes in zone coverage, Asante Samuel
misjudging his attempts to jump routes, and cornerbacks playing back and leaving room for wide receiver screens.The best strategy for Philadelphia is probably to rotate standard rushes with big blitzes. Send four every time, and a quarterback knows what to expect. In addition, Romo was at his best when facing five pass rushers -- both in the first game between these teams and for the season as a whole.
Miles Austin has enjoyed a breakout season this year as the Cowboys' number one receiver, and it is interesting to note that while the Cowboys bounced him back and forth between the left and right sides in the first game, they utilized him almost strictly on the right side in the second game. That means Asante Samuel, not Sheldon Brown, will generally be covering Austin. Our charting numbers so far have Brown as one of the top cornerbacks in the league, with a 70 percent Success Rate, matched only by Darrelle Revis and -- get ready for a shock -- Jabari Greer of New Orleans. Samuel still has an above-average 63 percent Success Rate in plays charted so far, and he has allowed fewer yards per pass than Brown (5.6 compared to 5.9).
As Mike Tanier pointed out earlier this week, the Cowboys have started setting up their pass plays by running draws, and they did this a lot against the Eagles in Week 17. They also put themselves into advantageous situations by getting consistent yardage on first down. Dallas ranks fourth overall in offensive DVOA on first down -- including first running the ball -- while the Philadelphia defense is much worse on first down (17th in DVOA) than it is on second (first) or third (fourth). The Cowboys also had the lowest three-and-out rate in the league, going three-and-out on just 16.2 percent of drives.
Fullback Deon Anderson
and tight end John Phillips could play a big role for Dallas in this game. Most teams gain more yardage on runs with just one back instead of two (partly because teams tend to go single-back in longer-yardage situations). However, the Cowboys average a yard more on runs with two backs, and the Eagles are one of just eight defenses to give up more yardage on runs with two backs (3.9) than on runs from single-back sets (3.6). Calling Phillips a tight end seems a bit silly, as I've never seen him actually line up in a tight end position anywhere other than the goal line. The Cowboys seem to have a very strict fullback rotation, where Anderson plays fullback when there are two wide receivers on the field and Phillips plays fullback in a three-tight end personnel set that also features Jason Witten and Martellus Bennett.SPECIAL TEAMS
Philadelphia had a good year on special teams overall; they were second in the FO ratings, although Cleveland was so far ahead that the Eagles finished closer to 18th place than they did to first. The Eagles are a good example of why it is a bit silly for the NFL to name one combined punt and kickoff returner for the Pro Bowl -- these are two different jobs with different sets of skills, usually done by different players. The Eagles were first in the league on punt returns, thanks to Pro Bowl return man DeSean Jackson, but 27th in the league on kickoff returns, where the job rotated between Jeremy Maclin, Macho Harris, and the now-injured Ellis Hobbs (who was the best of the three).
The Cowboys had very specific strengths and weaknesses on special teams. They ranked third in net kickoff value, thanks in large part to rookie kickoff specialist David Buehler, who led the league with 29 touchbacks. The Cowboys also have a strong punt returner in Patrick Crayton. The biggest weakness of the Cowboys' special teams was placekicker Nick Folk, but that area hasn't been a problem since the Cowboys ditched Folk and signed Shaun Suisham. The Commanders really overreacted to Suisham going through a small midseason slump, and our numbers combining his time in both Washington and Dallas rate him as league-average this season. It's not like the Cowboys want to be stuck running him out there for a 52-yarder, down by three in the final minutes, but he's not really a problem either.
OUTLOOK
Fans look at the Cowboys over the past few Decembers, they look at their recent playoff record, and they look at the poorly-regarded Wade Phillips on the sideline, and they think the issue in this game is whether the Cowboys can play consistently good football. But based on what we've seen in 2009, the question isn't which Cowboys team will show up. It's which Eagles team will show up. Take a look at the Dallas week-to-week graph; the Cowboys have been extremely consistent this year. They're third in variance, and rank in the top ten for both offense and defense separately. The Eagles, on the other hand, rank 25th in variance. You saw the reasons last week when these teams played for the NFC East title. Nobody in the NFL is better at studying quarterback tendencies and jumping routes than Asante Samuel, but if he misses, you've got problems. Twice last week, Samuel tried to jump routes and gave up big plays, a touchdown pass to Jason Witten and a 40-yard pass to Miles Austin. Philadelphia's zone blitzes are often hit-or-miss -- if the pass rush doesn't get to Romo in time, you end up with something ridiculous like Jason Babin
trying to cover Miles Austin in the middle of the field (see: 11-yard gain with 3:28 left in the first quarter). We know McNabb's accuracy seems to come and go, and those deep bombs to a streaking DeSean Jackson are hit-and-miss. If McNabb hits one of those last week, if he doesn't drop a snap in the red zone, if one of those Samuel route-jumps gets a pick, it's a different game. This week, it probably will be. That different game will be a closer game -- but the Cowboys are still the favorite, because even when we ignore the issue of consistency, they've been the slightly better team over the past few weeks.
