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http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draf...34/projecting-top-wr-prospects-2016-nfl-draft
Anyone who doubts that advanced statistics can provide insight into the potential success of NFL draft prospects should look back at last year's Playmaker Score projections from Football Outsiders. Entering the 2015 NFL draft, some draft observers saw a close, three-way race for the title of the best receiver in the class between Amari Cooper, Kevin White and DeVante Parker.
But Playmaker Score thought that Cooper was clearly the top wide receiver prospect of 2015. It also identified an injury-prone late-round afterthought named Stefon Diggs as a prospect so promising that he was in striking distance of both White and Parker, even after factoring in those players' much stronger ratings from scouts.
There's still plenty of time for these players' careers to develop, but early returns suggest that Playmaker Score got it right. Cooper led all rookie wide receivers with 1,070 yards, and Diggs -- playing on the run-first Minnesota Vikings -- managed a strong second place with 720 receiving yards. On the other side, while Parker came on strong at the end of the season, he finished just sixth among rookie wide receivers in receiving yards. The jury is still out on White, who missed his entire rookie year on injured reserve.
There is no guarantee that Playmaker Score will be on target again in 2016, but it would be foolish to write it off as mere statistical gobbledygook.
For an explanation of how Playmaker Score works, check out the full explanation at the bottom of the article. What follows is a ranking of the top 10 receiver prospects for 2016 according to our model, including a projection for the average number of regular-season receiving yards that each wide receiver will gain per season in his first five NFL years.
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1. Corey Coleman, Baylor: 709 yards/season
Scouts Inc.: No. 43 overall
Similar historical prospects: DeAndre Hopkins, Steve Smith
Coleman has a monster projection. As a junior, Coleman gained 1,363 receiving yards and caught an eye-popping 20 receiving touchdowns. Because Baylor passed the ball only 389 times in 2016, Coleman scored a touchdown on 5.1 percent of Baylor's passes. That's an incredible ratio, which has been topped by only four elite players: Randy Moss, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, and Larry Fitzgerald. Coleman also tested out well physically, posting a position-best 40.5-inch vertical jump at the NFL combine.
Notwithstanding these numbers, there are certainly legitimate concerns regarding Coleman's ability to transition to the NFL level. Baylor coach Art Briles' innovative offense may have inflated the WR's stats, and Coleman did not run a full route tree at Baylor. Nevertheless, Coleman's upside and potential are well worth the price of a first-round selection.
2. Will Fuller, Notre Dame: 561 yards/season
Scouts Inc.: No. 26 overall
Similar historical prospects: Santonio Holmes, Torry Holt
Fuller may have made headlines for his blazing 4.32-second 40-yard dash, but Playmaker Score is more interested in his strong receiving numbers in the relatively low-volume Notre Dame passing offense. Fuller scored 29 receiving touchdowns in his last two seasons at Notre Dame and recorded an impressive 17.4 yards per catch. Scouts may be concerned that Fuller has a relatively slight build (6-feet, 186 pounds), but size is highly overrated at the wide receiver position. Great wide receivers have come in all shapes and sizes; what matters is production.
3. Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss: 479 yards/season
Scouts Inc.: No. 14 overall
Similar historical prospects: Michael Floyd, Yatil Green
Despite being much more highly regarded by Scouts Inc. than either Coleman or Fuller, Treadwell finished in a distant third in this year's Playmaker projections. Why isn't Treadwell No. 1?
First, Treadwell's rate statistics are not particularly impressive. His best season was his junior year, when he recorded 1,153 yards and 11 touchdowns. Those are certainly fine numbers for a college wide receiver, but fall short of the numbers most highly drafted NFL wide receivers produce. For example, Amari Cooper produced 1,727 yards and 16 touchdowns in his final season, even though his team (Alabama) passed less than Treadwell's team did. As another example, Nelson Agholor, who was considered only a fringe first-round prospect, put up 1,313 yards and 12 touchdowns in his final season on a team (USC) that also passed less than Treadwell's.
Treadwell's career yards per reception is also a below-average 11.8 yards per catch, although his yards per reception numbers did improve as his college career progressed. Possession receivers in college rarely pan out in the NFL, and Treadwell did not have the rushing attempts that would mark him as the kind of "jack of all trades" receiver who sometimes succeeds in the NFL despite low yards per reception numbers.
Playmaker Score likes that Treadwell is coming out as a junior, but he is poised to have one of the worst projections ever for a first-round underclassman, joining Jonathan Baldwin, Cordarrelle Patterson, Anthony Gonzalez and Yatil Green.
4. Josh Doctson, TCU: 474 yards/season
Scouts Inc.: No. 20 overall
Similar historical prospects: Mark Clayton, Michael Jenkins
Doctson's numbers are similar to Fuller's, but there is one important difference: Fuller posted his numbers as a junior and enters the draft as an underclassman, while Doctson enters the draft as a senior. Senior wide receivers fail at a much greater rate than their junior counterparts. The four least productive wide receivers drafted in the first round from 1996 to 2013 were all seniors (A.J. Jenkins, Rashaun Woods, R. Jay Soward and Marcus Nash), even though most of the first-round picks in this time period were underclassmen.
5. Michael Thomas, Ohio State: 463 yards/season
Scouts Inc.: No. 39 overall
Similar historical prospects: Marty Booker, Brian Hartline
Playmaker Score probably underrates Thomas because Ohio State divided its relatively small passing game (only 325 attempts in 2015) among many talented pass-catchers. Indeed, nearly all of Ohio State's receiving corps -- Thomas, Braxton Miller and Jalin Marshall -- received invitations to the NFL combine. Despite the wealth of receiving talent on the team, Thomas managed to score a touchdown on 2.7 percent of the Buckeyes' pass attempts. Indeed, Playmaker would consider Thomas a better prospect than Treadwell or Doctson, if not for those players' higher projected draft position.
Anyone who doubts that advanced statistics can provide insight into the potential success of NFL draft prospects should look back at last year's Playmaker Score projections from Football Outsiders. Entering the 2015 NFL draft, some draft observers saw a close, three-way race for the title of the best receiver in the class between Amari Cooper, Kevin White and DeVante Parker.
But Playmaker Score thought that Cooper was clearly the top wide receiver prospect of 2015. It also identified an injury-prone late-round afterthought named Stefon Diggs as a prospect so promising that he was in striking distance of both White and Parker, even after factoring in those players' much stronger ratings from scouts.
There's still plenty of time for these players' careers to develop, but early returns suggest that Playmaker Score got it right. Cooper led all rookie wide receivers with 1,070 yards, and Diggs -- playing on the run-first Minnesota Vikings -- managed a strong second place with 720 receiving yards. On the other side, while Parker came on strong at the end of the season, he finished just sixth among rookie wide receivers in receiving yards. The jury is still out on White, who missed his entire rookie year on injured reserve.
There is no guarantee that Playmaker Score will be on target again in 2016, but it would be foolish to write it off as mere statistical gobbledygook.
For an explanation of how Playmaker Score works, check out the full explanation at the bottom of the article. What follows is a ranking of the top 10 receiver prospects for 2016 according to our model, including a projection for the average number of regular-season receiving yards that each wide receiver will gain per season in his first five NFL years.
-
1. Corey Coleman, Baylor: 709 yards/season
Scouts Inc.: No. 43 overall
Similar historical prospects: DeAndre Hopkins, Steve Smith
Coleman has a monster projection. As a junior, Coleman gained 1,363 receiving yards and caught an eye-popping 20 receiving touchdowns. Because Baylor passed the ball only 389 times in 2016, Coleman scored a touchdown on 5.1 percent of Baylor's passes. That's an incredible ratio, which has been topped by only four elite players: Randy Moss, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, and Larry Fitzgerald. Coleman also tested out well physically, posting a position-best 40.5-inch vertical jump at the NFL combine.
Notwithstanding these numbers, there are certainly legitimate concerns regarding Coleman's ability to transition to the NFL level. Baylor coach Art Briles' innovative offense may have inflated the WR's stats, and Coleman did not run a full route tree at Baylor. Nevertheless, Coleman's upside and potential are well worth the price of a first-round selection.
2. Will Fuller, Notre Dame: 561 yards/season
Scouts Inc.: No. 26 overall
Similar historical prospects: Santonio Holmes, Torry Holt
Fuller may have made headlines for his blazing 4.32-second 40-yard dash, but Playmaker Score is more interested in his strong receiving numbers in the relatively low-volume Notre Dame passing offense. Fuller scored 29 receiving touchdowns in his last two seasons at Notre Dame and recorded an impressive 17.4 yards per catch. Scouts may be concerned that Fuller has a relatively slight build (6-feet, 186 pounds), but size is highly overrated at the wide receiver position. Great wide receivers have come in all shapes and sizes; what matters is production.
3. Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss: 479 yards/season
Scouts Inc.: No. 14 overall
Similar historical prospects: Michael Floyd, Yatil Green
Despite being much more highly regarded by Scouts Inc. than either Coleman or Fuller, Treadwell finished in a distant third in this year's Playmaker projections. Why isn't Treadwell No. 1?
First, Treadwell's rate statistics are not particularly impressive. His best season was his junior year, when he recorded 1,153 yards and 11 touchdowns. Those are certainly fine numbers for a college wide receiver, but fall short of the numbers most highly drafted NFL wide receivers produce. For example, Amari Cooper produced 1,727 yards and 16 touchdowns in his final season, even though his team (Alabama) passed less than Treadwell's team did. As another example, Nelson Agholor, who was considered only a fringe first-round prospect, put up 1,313 yards and 12 touchdowns in his final season on a team (USC) that also passed less than Treadwell's.
Treadwell's career yards per reception is also a below-average 11.8 yards per catch, although his yards per reception numbers did improve as his college career progressed. Possession receivers in college rarely pan out in the NFL, and Treadwell did not have the rushing attempts that would mark him as the kind of "jack of all trades" receiver who sometimes succeeds in the NFL despite low yards per reception numbers.
Playmaker Score likes that Treadwell is coming out as a junior, but he is poised to have one of the worst projections ever for a first-round underclassman, joining Jonathan Baldwin, Cordarrelle Patterson, Anthony Gonzalez and Yatil Green.
4. Josh Doctson, TCU: 474 yards/season
Scouts Inc.: No. 20 overall
Similar historical prospects: Mark Clayton, Michael Jenkins
Doctson's numbers are similar to Fuller's, but there is one important difference: Fuller posted his numbers as a junior and enters the draft as an underclassman, while Doctson enters the draft as a senior. Senior wide receivers fail at a much greater rate than their junior counterparts. The four least productive wide receivers drafted in the first round from 1996 to 2013 were all seniors (A.J. Jenkins, Rashaun Woods, R. Jay Soward and Marcus Nash), even though most of the first-round picks in this time period were underclassmen.
5. Michael Thomas, Ohio State: 463 yards/season
Scouts Inc.: No. 39 overall
Similar historical prospects: Marty Booker, Brian Hartline
Playmaker Score probably underrates Thomas because Ohio State divided its relatively small passing game (only 325 attempts in 2015) among many talented pass-catchers. Indeed, nearly all of Ohio State's receiving corps -- Thomas, Braxton Miller and Jalin Marshall -- received invitations to the NFL combine. Despite the wealth of receiving talent on the team, Thomas managed to score a touchdown on 2.7 percent of the Buckeyes' pass attempts. Indeed, Playmaker would consider Thomas a better prospect than Treadwell or Doctson, if not for those players' higher projected draft position.