It really depends on which positions you are targeting because the success rate varies depending on position. But if you just combine the likelihood of getting at least a part-time starter regardless of position, you're generally better off with more picks than trading up. It's true that there's no way 10 picks will make the final 53, but it's also true that 6 wont either.
If you are playing the odds and you want the best chance to get 2, 3 or maybe even 4 guys that will be starting on the team 5 years from now, it's probably better to use the picks.
The odds (combining all positions) are:
1st: 65.1%
2nd: 43.5%
3rd: 27.8%
4th: 19.6%
5th: 13.4%
6th: 10.4%
7th: 4.5%
That seems to support the idea to dump the lower picks for fewer higher picks. Especially when you look at the fact that the odds of getting a single part-time (or better) starter with the Cowboys final 6 picks is less than 50/50 (46.6%) and it's only 33.6% with the final 5 picks.
But when you factor in the rough trade value of the picks, your odds increase with more lower round picks. Odds using roughly comparable trade value:
(2) 6th Rd.: 19.7%
vs
(1) 5th Rd.: 13.4%
(2) 5th Rd.: 25.0%
vs
(1) 4th Rd.: 19.6%
(3) 4th Rd.: 48.0%
vs
(1) 3rd Rd.: 27.8%
(2) 2nd Rd. & (1) 3rd Rd.: 77.0%
vs
(1) 1st Rd.: 65.1%
Additionally, if you strike gold (get lucky), it's possible you could hit on 2 players with your three 4th round picks - it may not be likely, but if you trade them for a single 3rd, it is impossible to hit on more than one.
But like I said, a lot depends on the odds of the specific positions you are targeting that could shift these odds quite a bit.
I am just going by needs from a look at the roster. Yes, it goes to how the draft falls to you. So the more picks, you increase the odds of hitting on a few players.
However, what are the odds of all of them making the team as opposed to 6. With any team unless you are completely void of talent, like the browns were, so you trade and trade and trade to accumulate picks. The have picks this year, but now they need to go after difference makers more so than before.
We have, on paper anyway a roster than does not seem that far away. Though to some we are devoid in many areas, to others, we are not.
So if these late round players aren't that far apart, maybe use the picks to create TC competition.
But if we already have that TC competition, then why use a pick on that, when a trade up gets possibly a player that will contribute sooner.
It can be looked at both ways I guess.
Anyway, we do not need a QB, that we could not find as an UDFA, unless they are not happy with Rush, which we know that is not the case.
We need a 3rd string RB
Many think we need a WR now, though I think if they do that, then trade Beasley.
That is 2 picks.
I do not think we need to spend a top pick on OL, but do need to draft someone for depth and to develop. Maybe 2 OL if they keep 9 instead of 8.
Say 2 more picks, so at 4 now
TE, with Hannas gone now, I still do not see it, but with this team they will do it anyway. I think we are set with who we have, bring in some UDFA's
LB's, this is what we need so if they want that competition, use the extra picks and select 3 LB's. We need at least 2 to 3 spots to fill, depending if they keep 6 or 7. We have 4 that make the team now. But I rather have 2 sure bets than a bunch of 6th and 7th rounders.
That is 7 picks
DT's, we need a top pick here, but other than that I think we are set on the DL, especially if Gregory returns.
8 picks
DB's, I think we are set at CB, but need S's. Actually looking at the roster we have some to compete for spots 7 through 9, but need a few more. Unless one thinks players like Thomas and White will make the team, but they are Cb's as to where we need S's. We have a few guys signed but I would not hand them a position at this point.
10 picks
however if they feel some of these guys are better than the late rounders, then go with less picks, have 7 make the team, fill the TC spots with UDFA's.
1 RB, 1 OL, 1 WR, 1 DT, 2 LB's, 1 S
Actually I don't think we need a WR unless they keep Beasley. But I can see if they use all 10 picks, it won't upset me, but I prefer less picks.
But now that I look at what I typed, I may like picking more. LOL.