Fourth Quarter QBR : 2013 NFL Season

[Gameover]

Fact: if you take away the defensive contribution, Tony Romo's offense only put up 17 points. That isn't good enough. I'll take points over QBR or ratings.

Percy, do you know how many times the Cowboys have run the ball on second down this season? And can you compare it to the other teams?

 

[dropdeadfred5]

Fact: if you take away the defensive contribution, Tony Romo's offense only put up 17 points. That isn't good enough. I'll take points over QBR or ratings.

Percy, do you know how many times the Cowboys have run the ball on second down this season? And can you compare it to the other teams?

and as usual a Romo hater shows up and desperately tries to find a way to blame Tony no matter what.

 

[percyhoward]

Fact: if you take away the defensive contribution, Tony Romo's offense only put up 17 points. That isn't good enough. I'll take points over QBR or ratings.

Percy, do you know how many times the Cowboys have run the ball on second down this season? And can you compare it to the other teams?

I'll take points over ratings too, but points are much more a team stat, especially with regard to red zone rushing.

Dallas has run the ball 68 times on 2nd down (32nd) for an average of 3.8 yards (25th), with 26.5% of those runs resulting in a 1st down (23rd).

 

[Plankton]

Pass Rating by Quarter (1st...2nd...3rd...4th)
2013
Romo.........86.3.....91.0...102.5...107.6
Brees.......113.5...125.9.....94.1.....91.3
PManning 134.8...113.7...108.9...104.4
Rodgers...109.9...101.6...114.4...107.3
Brady..........90.3.....91.2....85.5.....83.0

Career
Romo.........77.7.....98.2...101.1...102.4
Brees.........98.1.....97.9.....97.3.....87.9
PManning 103.0.....98.1.....99.9.....94.0
Rodgers...107.5...105.1...107.8...100.8
Brady..........96.0....98.6.....96.5.....91.8

Romo runs counter to the trend shown here that QBs get somewhat worse as the games go along.

With the jump in numbers, it makes me wonder whether the game planning is sound, and it is mitigated by halftime adjustments.

 

[DallasCowboysRule!]

Highest 4th quarter passer rating of all time, most game winning drives of any QB in the last 3 seasons, owns virtually ever Cowboy passing record...is a choker and a bad QB. Please someone explain to me the logic of some of the sports "journalists" and self proclaimed "experts"

 

[Gameover]

and as usual a Romo hater shows up and desperately tries to find a way to blame Tony no matter what.

Just dropping water on a Romoites circle jerk !

 

[percyhoward]

Just dropping water on a Romoites circle jerk !

To reference your sig, winning is the bottom line. Some fans get frustrated with a stat like passer rating because a high passer rating doesn't always mean you outscore the opposition. The team's been .500 despite Romo's high ratings, not because pass rating is a deceiving stat, but because of the performance of the running game and defense.

 

[sms4332]

They showed a stat during the game that with 5 minutes or less to go in the 4th quarter and with the boys tied or behind by 7 or less, Romos rating is in the 74 range.

 

[percyhoward]

They showed a stat during the game that with 5 minutes or less to go in the 4th quarter and with the boys tied or behind by 7 or less, Romos rating is in the 74 range.

That's FOX Sports trying to control your thought processes. Without any context, the 74 seems like a low number. It's actually 10th among the 32 QB with the most attempts in that situation.

Also, in setting the parameters at 5 minutes, FOX chose Romo's lowest 4th-quarter rating possible. It's higher at any other interval. With 2 minutes remaining, he's 4th. With 7 minutes remaining, he's 5th. With 14 minutes remaining, he's 1st.

Beware of mass media in general.

 

[noshame]

That's FOX Sports trying to control your thought processes. Without any context, the 74 seems like a low number. It's actually 10th among the 32 QB with the most attempts in that situation.

Also, in setting the parameters at 5 minutes, FOX chose Romo's lowest 4th-quarter rating possible. It's higher at any other interval. With 2 minutes remaining, he's 4th. With 7 minutes remaining, he's 5th. With 14 minutes remaining, he's 1st.

Beware of mass media in general.

So as the pressure gets greater, he folds. I also like the 1 qtr stats for the last 2 years 4tds against 8 ints?

Tony peaked 3 years ago, sooner or later you'll all see that. Hasn't been consistent since the collarbone.

 

[percyhoward]

So as the pressure gets greater, he folds.

Not at all.

3 minutes remaining: 8th
2 minutes remaining: 4th
1 minute remaining: 3rd

Again, FOX chose the worst possible rating and ran with it.

And what's that about the collarbone?

 

[85Cowboy85]

So as the pressure gets greater, he folds. I also like the 1 qtr stats for the last 2 years 4tds against 8 ints?

Tony peaked 3 years ago, sooner or later you'll all see that. Hasn't been consistent since the collarbone.

Doesn't that contradict his numbers under two minutes though? He is actually better in that category.

It would seem to me that the pressure is greater under two minutes then under five minutes. In the under five minutes category there is an actual chance you could get the ball back.

There is only one reason that I could think of for why Fox would choose to slice the data in that manner. It simply supported a narrative they have been promoting during their broadcasts.

I actually credit them somewhat for showing the fourth quarter rating. That has been known for some time and yet it had largely been blacked out by the media. Still, no excuse for cherry picking.

Edit: Worse then the slicing is probably showing the raw rating without context. Just terrible journalism.

 

[percyhoward]

Worse then the slicing is probably showing the raw rating without context. Just terrible journalism.

Terrible by the journalistic standard, maybe. FOX probably gave the guy a raise.

 

[noshame]

Not at all.

3 minutes remaining: 8th
2 minutes remaining: 4th
1 minute remaining: 3rd

Again, FOX chose the worst possible rating and ran with it.

And what's that about the collarbone?

I was just kidding about the fold stuff. However, since the year he broke the collarbone he has had horrible stretches where he's off target. he was off almost the whole first half of last season and now seems to start almost every game cold, I'm talking about throwing high, and/or behind a lot, I know you see this. I also am sure you are aware these are characteristics of a guy who's trying to aim his throws. At first I thought he'd get over it, but it seems he suffering from a confidence issue that does not want to go away.

 

[percyhoward]

I'm talking about throwing high, and/or behind a lot, I know you see this.

No. I guess you overestimate me.

If he's throwing high and/or, etc...why aren't there more incompletions?

before injury
64.1% 95.5 rating

since injury
65.5% 96.2 rating

 

[noshame]

you don't see the great receptions? Also he is throwing way more dink and dunk stuff then before and I know you see that.

 

[DFWJC]

To reference your sig, winning is the bottom line. Some fans get frustrated with a stat like passer rating because a high passer rating doesn't always mean you outscore the opposition. The team's been .500 despite Romo's high ratings, not because pass rating is a deceiving stat, but because of the performance of the running game and defense.

Not that total yards given up is always a telling stat, but Dallas has managed to hold their opponents to under 400 yards just 5 times this year.
They have won 4 of those games. The only loss was by 1 pt at KC.

 

[Direwolf63]

you don't see the great receptions? Also he is throwing way more dink and dunk stuff then before and I know you see that.

So do other QB's only throw bombs?

 

[percyhoward]

you don't see the great receptions? Also he is throwing way more dink and dunk stuff then before and I know you see that.

How do you explain the fact that, when he had two reliable deep-ball receivers (Robinson and Dez, in 2011) Romo was 2nd in the NFL in passer rating on throws of more than 20 yards? That was after the collarbone injury, after all.

 

[TimHortons]

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/fourth-quarter-quarterback-rating/2013/

Out of 32 NFL Teams, Dallas is ranked 2nd in the NFL in 4th QTR QB Rating with a 107.7 rating. Does this surprise anyone at all? Our QB does have the highest 4th QTR Rating in NFL history, so it shouldn't come as a shocker that he's being clutch this year as well.

Tony Romo 2013 stats by each QTR

1st QTR /// 62.8 CMP% /// 619 YDS /// 7.2 YPA //// 3 TD /// 2 INT /// 86.3 QBR
2nd QTR /// 65.2 CMP% /// 753 YDS /// 6.5 YPA /// 5 TD /// 2 INT /// 91.6 QBR
3rd QTR /// 58.8 CMP% /// 717 YDS /// 7.0 YPA /// 8 TD /// 1 INT /// 102.5 QBR
4th QTR /// 69.5 CMP% /// 826 YDS /// 7.9 YPA /// 7 TD /// 2 INT /// 107.1 QBR
4th QTR within 7 /// 68.4 CMP% /// 682 YDS /// 8.6 YPA /// 6 TD /// 2 INT /// 109.8 QBR

See the trend here? As the game progresses and it becomes crunch time, Romo gets better and better. Why can't the whole length of the game be played in the 4th QTR? That would make me feel so much better about our playoff chances.

For the people here who doesn't believe he's "clutch" or doesn't have the it factor, answer this. How can someone NOT be clutch, yet have the highest 4th QTR QBR in NFL history and also have the most GWDs since 2011? Talk about a contradiction.

Also, if you want a good laugh check out the 31st ranked team on the list, poor Eli.

Aren't these all passer ratings? QB rating and passer rating are 2 different things