Gill Brandt: Keep an eye on two important numbers at combines

[Hawkeye0202]

 

[cnuball21]

3 cone is one of my favorite at the combine.

 

[Beaker42]

3 cone is one of my favorite at the combine.

This is a family forum.

 

[slick325]

HOFer talking...

 

[CATCH17]

I always just look for the best players that have the highest 40 time and vertical leap.

If they were good in college and they have fast 40 and good vertical then that usually a good sign.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

I always though 10-yard splits for d-linemen and edge rushers was a critical metric.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

This is a family forum.

He said Combine not concubine.

 

[cnuball21]

I always though 10-yard splits for d-linemen and edge rushers was a critical metric.

Absolutely, this is why when guys like Bosa run a 4.8 it doesn’t really matter.

Dude had a CB like 3 cone and solid 10 yard split showcasing good first step and lateral agility.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

Absolutely, this is why when guys like Bosa run a 4.8 it doesn’t really matter.

Dude had a CB like 3 cone and solid 10 yard split showcasing good first step and lateral agility.

Yep. It’s also why I held out a little hope for Taco Charlton because his overall physical stature and measurables were comparable to Bosa.

That said, metrics will only take you so far; can’t measure heart, motor, instincts, want-to, et cetera.

 

[cnuball21]

Yep. It’s also why I held out a little hope for Taco Charlton because his overall physical stature and measurables were comparable to Bosa.

That said, metrics will only take you so far; can’t measure heart, motor, instincts, want-to, et cetera.

100%

 

[Mr_437]

No doubt, I always look at those cause Cowboys players usually have good 3 cone n shuttle. Personally, I add the 40 n Bench to Gil's main two this offseason.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

I always just look for the best players that have the highest 40 time and vertical leap.

If they were good in college and they have fast 40 and good vertical then that usually a good sign.

Really?

 

[CATCH17]

Really?

Yep.

Great sign of explosiveness.

Leighton Vander Esch is a good example. Great 40 and vert. These guys are the premiere athletes and if they were good players in college and they are sniffing a 4.4 or 4.5 with 36-40+ inch vertical then that's a great sign for their NFL career.

 

[beware_d-ware]

The interesting one to me is the broad jump. For one, it's a gauge of lower body power which is one of the most useful attributes at any position in football, and two, from what I hear, it is essentially genetic / non trainable. You've got what you've got.

There was a post on a forum I saw where a guy tried to predict what metrics led to successful pass rushers. This dude found that 69% of DEs that got 20 sacks on their rookie contract had at least a 9'9" broad jump and a 7.20 3-cone. It almost makes too much sense, cause burst and bend is exactly what you want to see in a DE. Keep those two numbers in mind when you are looking at Combine results this year.

https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/...ck_easy_way_to_tell_if_an_edge_rush_prospect/

Also, 40s are almost so overrated that they're now being underrated. For RBs especially, you can sieve out players pretty well just by knowing their size-speed combo. Football Outsiders uses a metric called Speed Score, which is weight * 200 / (40 time ^4). The 200 is just a scaling constant to make easier to read scores. Anyway, a starting level back should have a Speed Score over 100, and anything below that starts falling into the danger zone.



And also, 40 and broad/vert are some of the more predictive metrics for LBs too. Don't have any trend data for this, this is just something I've noticed spending way too much time on Mock Draftable. But look up any good LB you want right now - Kuechly, Wagner, LVE, Sean Lee, Hightower, Mosley, McKinney, whoever - and I bet you his 40 and jumps are all 70th percentile plus. Tape is big for LBs because diagnosing and reading plays correctly is the #1 attribute that linebackers can have, but if you can find a fast, explosive guy that can also read, he's probably a keeper.

https://www.mockdraftable.com/

This got a little bit longer than I thought it would, but I've been looking at metrics more heavily the last couple draft cycles to complement the eyeball test, and I've spent some time trying to pin down what works.

 

[cnuball21]

The interesting one to me is the broad jump. For one, it's a gauge of lower body power which is one of the most useful attributes at any position in football, and two, from what I hear, it is essentially genetic / non trainable. You've got what you've got.

There was a post on a forum I saw where a guy tried to predict what metrics led to successful pass rushers. This dude found that 69% of DEs that got 20 sacks on their rookie contract had at least a 9'9" broad jump and a 7.20 3-cone. It almost makes too much sense, cause burst and bend is exactly what you want to see in a DE. Keep those two numbers in mind when you are looking at Combine results this year.

https://www.reddit.com/r/NFL_Draft/...ck_easy_way_to_tell_if_an_edge_rush_prospect/

Also, 40s are almost so overrated that they're now being underrated. For RBs especially, you can sieve out players pretty well just by knowing their size-speed combo. Football Outsiders uses a metric called Speed Score, which is weight * 200 / (40 time ^4). The 200 is just a scaling constant to make easier to read scores. Anyway, a starting level back should have a Speed Score over 100, and anything below that starts falling into the danger zone.



And also, 40 and broad/vert are some of the more predictive metrics for LBs too. Don't have any trend data for this, this is just something I've noticed spending way too much time on Mock Draftable. But look up any good LB you want right now - Kuechly, Wagner, LVE, Sean Lee, Hightower, Mosley, McKinney, whoever - and I bet you his 40 and jumps are all 70th percentile plus. Tape is big for LBs because diagnosing and reading plays correctly is the #1 attribute that linebackers can have, but if you can find a fast, explosive guy that can also read, he's probably a keeper.

https://www.mockdraftable.com/

This got a little bit longer than I thought it would, but I've been looking at metrics more heavily the last couple draft cycles to complement the eyeball test, and I've spent some time trying to pin down what works.

Awesome stuff.

People say the combine can be overrated, but with so much data out there in the correlation of certain events to success I’d disagree.

 

[CalPolyTechnique]

Yep.

Great sign of explosiveness.

Leighton Vander Esch is a good example. Great 40 and vert. These guys are the premiere athletes and if they were good players in college and they are sniffing a 4.4 or 4.5 with 36-40+ inch vertical then that's a great sign for their NFL career.

Yeah, I look at wee bit more than that.

 

[CATCH17]

Yeah, I look at wee bit more than that.

Well of course I look at more then that but those are 2 big indicators that an athlete has a lot of upside for me.


You still have to be able to play football but the guys who go a little more unnoticed but were still considered solid football players but have a high 40 and high vertical means they are just scratching the surface of their potential IMO.


I don't want the best college player. I want the best player going forward which is why I like taking chances on players like Leighton Vander Esch who had a lot of production and crazy Pro Days.

 

[xwalker]

Amari Cooper
6-1, 211
3-Cone: 6.71
SS: 3.98

Edelman
5-10, 195
3-Cone: 6.62
SS: 3.92

 

[cnuball21]

Amari Cooper
6-1, 211
3-Cone: 6.71
SS: 3.98

Edelman
5-10, 195
3-Cone: 6.62
SS: 3.92

Short area quickness is so undervalued IMO.

40s are great, but how often is a player going to run that far outside of WR / CBs?

 

[beware_d-ware]

Coop's combine spider chart is worth a look too, kinda summing up all those test scores into one easy to read graphic.

https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/amari-cooper

Like Xwalker was saying, his short area quickness really stands out, especially at 211. His jumps are weirdly non-impressive, but the 4.42 40 is rock solid as well. And given some of the crazy footraces he won - 90 yards vs Washington, beating LA's entire defense to the pylon, etc, I wouldn't be surprised if he plays even faster than that.