Looking at the top 3 teams and their likelihood to take a QB
- Tenn - no need
- Cleveland - most likely
- San Diego - not likely
Unless there is a trade I would assume Tenn takes the OT, Cleveland has their pick of Goff or Lynch, and San Diego takes another position. So if Dallas wants a QB in this draft we are likely to have that opportunity.
I'm guessing Goff goes to Cleveland and Lynch to Dallas.
I pretty much agree with you.
(1) Titans - I see them taking Tunsil no. 1. Taylor Lewan would be moved from LT to RT to pair with Chance Warmack and Tunsil would start at LT day one. Lewan was a two-time Rimington winner, 1st team All-Big Ten and 1st team All America, but Tunsil is athletically superior to Lewan. He is compared by some to Tyron Smith - strong, great footwork and a physical specimen. Mariota was sacked on 9.3% of his dropbacks (38 sacks, 370 pass attempts) and overall, Tennessee gave up 54 sacks. With a franchise QB entering his second season, Titans go for a potential long-term Pro Bowl left tackle. It's possible the 9ers would seek to move up to this spot to land Goff. To swap picks (no. 7 for no. 1), the 9ers would have to give up, at a minimum, two 2nd round picks and two 3rd round picks. I just don't see Tennessee passing an opportunity on a blue chip, NFL ready left tackle. If SF comes calling, my guess is Tennessee will say no.
(2) Browns - playing in perhaps the most physical division in football, the Browns take the big, strong QB with the big-time arm, Paxton Lynch. Cincy, Pitt and Balt all have physical front sevens. Lynch is 6'7", physically stronger than Goff, and has a cannon for an arm. Physically he is similar in ways to Roethlesberger. Playing in an outdoor stadium with winds off Lake Erie and having to play outdoor road games in cold weather vs. divisional foes, I think Cleveland takes the QB with a right arm that can rival Flacco and Roethlesberger. Goff is left on the board.
(3) Chargers - Rivers will be 34 next season and they may be thinking of his eventual replacement. Goff would fit the bill. But here is where I see SF making a push to jump Dallas and snatch the guy who played in the 9ers backyard. San Diego would get a quality defensive player at no. 7 (perhaps Ramsey) along with additional picks (including at least the 9ers 2nd round pick). If SD keeps their pick, I think they will go defense and if Ramsey is over-valued at the no. 3 pick here, they could go with Bosa. My gut says SF jumps us and gets the QB they covet.
(4) Cowboys - with Lynch and Goff off the board, I think the Cowboys move down if they have a trade partner. The question is, would someone want to move up to take Bosa? If so, I'd like to see the Cowboys get an impact offensive player like Elliott and then try to package picks to move up and get Wentz later in round one. If SD keeps their pick I would not be upset to see Dallas get Goff even though I do think he and Lynch are over-valued in this draft and will be taken higher than their skill level would otherwise warrant (i.e., this is not a strong QB class).
All that said, I would not be upset to see the Cowboys come out of the 1st round with Jack, Robinson or Hargraeves if they move down a few spots. There are a lot of holes to fill. Elliott in the backfield with Romo next season would be pretty sweet, and the Cowboys would resume the physical, pound the rock style they displayed in 2014.