Going best player available gets you Pro Bowl players

[big dog cowboy]

Actually both were rated highly and were reportedly equal in weight as far as grade at the time. Smith filled a need, for sure but it wasn't a need based pick.

Flo Adams left. We needed a LOT.

 

[big dog cowboy]

No difference in those players to me, beside position. I think they both have the same effect on the field. I get what you're saying, though.

I get Tyron is a pro bowl and sometimes all pro LOT. But JJ has been the DPOY in 3 of his 5 years in the league. Only LT has 3 of those in the history of the game.

 

[gimmesix]

What if Bosa is drafted by us and busts? Is the Crow still served? Don't you have to wait to to fire up the crow roasting pit to see how Bosa performs first?

If he doesn't turn out to be a longtime starting end (barring injury), I'll be glad to eat that crow. I don't predict greatness for players because it's just impossible to know. I don't believe he'll be a bust and I do believe he can be great.

I think the whole prediction thing is silly. We argue each year over which players will succeed when we truly have no clue. Then we get mad about it when this player is taken or that one isn't when we still have no clue how their careers will turn out. If they turn out like we think they will, then we crow about it. If they turn out differently, then we don't bring that up because we don't like being wrong.

I think if you're going to predict it, you should man up and say I'm wrong if you're wrong.

 

[AzorAhai]

Wait, so your premise is when we hit big on a player it was because they were BPA, but when we missed on players it's because we didn't go BPA and instead only took them for need? Amazing how we couldn't hit on any need players, but boy those few BPA picks we made sure were something.

I can't wait to find out what Randy Gregory turns into so we know whether it was a need pick or BPA.

 

[ilykdrama]

I get Tyron is a pro bowl and sometimes all pro LOT. But JJ has been the DPOY in 3 of his 5 years in the league. Only LT has 3 of those in the history of the game.

JJ's had some bad injuries. I think the way he plays, you get the longer career out of Tyron. Also, JJ's entire career is going to be wasted in Houston, sadly.

 

[AzorAhai]

JJ's had some bad injuries. I think the way he plays, you get the longer career out of Tyron. Also, JJ's entire career is going to be wasted in Houston, sadly.

The Texans are 2-3 since 1999. We are 2-6 in that same time. I wouldn't point to them wasting a top players career and assume Tyron's going to end up better in that regard. Especially since they've never had a franchise QB and even with one for a decade, we still have the same number of playoff wins.

 

[Verdict]

Actually Parcells talked about how they really liked Witten but he felt the center position had held him hostage too many times in the past. That's a clear need over BPA comment.

And I think it is somewhat revisionist history to say we were wrong on Johnson. He injured his knee in camp and needed microfracture surgery. Not many guys come back fully from that. Missed his whole rookie year. He wasn't the same after that (although he was pretty solid in his first year of play). It was a pick that was derailed by injury.

Yes, that's true, but he was very light for a center also if I remember correctly.

 

[Verdict]

The primary problem with BPA is that teams often use a tiered approach to ranking players. Bosa, for instance, might be on the same tier as Tunsil and Ramsey, which means that all things being equal, the team takes the one that best fits its need.

The year that Dallas took Frederick, the team had several players in that same tier, it just happened to need a center worse.

Actually he was the last one in the tier left a/k/a The Last Of The Mohicans.

 

[bodi]

http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/lists/nfl-draft-busts-football-worst-picks-022411

http://lostlettermen.com/slideshow/4-16-2012-top-50-nfl-draft-busts-where-are-they-now/

 

[Risen Star]

According to which board? Or just stats hindsight? One could argue Smith was the BPA that happened to fill a need.

And one would be right. I look at an insane number of value boards and none of them had Watt over Smith.

 

[Risen Star]

BPA at a position of need is drafting for need. If you subscribe to this, you are a short sighted fan who wants to *******ize the draft and treat it like an extension of free agency.

Need usually factors in because you usually have at least a couple of similarly rated players on the board when you're on the clock but in those instances where you don't, you take the BPA. No matter how you package it, "BPA at a position of need", "drafting for immediate impact" or anything else, drafting for need is a terrible idea.

The only way you become less needy is by drafting pure. It's hard enough to find players in the draft. To think you're going to force picks at certain positions because it most benefits your current situation is a recipe for picking in the top 10 every year.

 

[visionary]

Smith and Frederick were absolutely needs when drafted

Our OL had been a screaming need for at least 2 years before our FO finally woke up to that fact and drafted smith and then Frederick

 

[visionary]

Wait, so your premise is when we hit big on a player it was because they were BPA, but when we missed on players it's because we didn't go BPA and instead only took them for need? Amazing how we couldn't hit on any need players, but boy those few BPA picks we made sure were something.

I can't wait to find out what Randy Gregory turns into so we know whether it was a need pick or BPA.

Exactly
Revisionist history at its best

 

[gimmesix]

Actually he was the last one in the tier left a/k/a The Last Of The Mohicans.

I thought he was in the same tier as Escobar and Terrence Williams, but I could be remembering wrong.

 

[Mr Cowboy]

Really? Witten we got in the third - we were shocked he was still on the board in the second, but we had a need a center so we took Al Johnson instead

So how is that BPA again?

Jacob Rodgers, Julius Jones, the second round TEs.................

 

[Mr Cowboy]

I've done a couple of those simulated drafts at that draft site, and took the top rated players only. In one of them I got 1. Tunsil 2. Jaylon Smith, 3 Nick Martin, 4. PK from FSU on another one I got 1. Elliot, 2. Henry, 3. Shepard, and 4. RB Perkins.

So picking pure BPA doesn't always work.

 

[Verdict]

I thought he was in the same tier as Escobar and Terrence Williams, but I could be remembering wrong.

NO. Do you not remember Jerry Jones calling him the last of the Mohicans?

 

[gimmesix]

NO. Do you not remember Jerry Jones calling him the last of the Mohicans?

That was in reference to him being the last of eight offensive linemen in the Cowboys' top tier. I don't believe all of those linemen were equally tiered by the Cowboys, just that there was a clear falloff after Frederick. He was the last one standing worthy of being taken in the first round.

 

[AzorAhai]

Exactly
Revisionist history at its best

Yup. I'm not disagreeing with the BPA approach at all. It's just the logic here is flawed.

 

[ilykdrama]

The Texans are 2-3 since 1999. We are 2-6 in that same time. I wouldn't point to them wasting a top players career and assume Tyron's going to end up better in that regard. Especially since they've never had a franchise QB and even with one for a decade, we still have the same number of playoff wins.

At least they can say their QB's have had defenses.