Gosselin's early predictions from last season...

SkinsandTerps

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WoodysGirl said:
NFL off-season rankings: Cowboys in NFL's bottom half

[size=-1]04:00 PM CDT on Saturday, June 4, 2005 [/size]

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Rick Gosselin

Inside The NFL

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The Philadelphia Eagles are due. Overdue, in fact. Way overdue.

If you subtract three Sundays from this decade – the three Sundays that the New England Patriots have won Super Bowls – the Eagles would be the NFL's best team of the 2000s.

Philadelphia has 59 victories this decade, six more than any other NFL team. The Eagles are on pace to win 118 games, which would be an NFL record for any decade. Philadelphia is the only team to qualify for the playoffs all five seasons of the decade and the only team to win four division titles. But the Eagles have yet to win a Super Bowl – and it took them every bit of five seasons just to reach one last February.

The New England team that defeated Philadelphia, 24-21, that day has lost its offensive and defensive coordinators, two Pro Bowl defenders (linebacker Tedy Bruschi and cornerback Ty Law) and two other starters (guard Joe Andruzzi and defensive tackle Keith Traylor).

The Eagles lost two starters in free agency – guard Jermane Mayberry and defensive end Derrick Burgess – but replaced them with recent first-round draft picks Shawn Andrews and Jerome McDougle. A league-high nine Pro Bowlers also return. So put Philadelphia atop the annual off-season rankings by The Dallas Morning News.

1. Philadelphia
The off-season crisis for the Eagles is the renegotiation demand of WR Terrell Owens.

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AP Donovan McNabb

Even if Owens sits, which is unlikely, the Eagles won't be crippled by his absence. Philadelphia lost incumbent Pro Bowl players each of the previous three off-seasons – LB Jeremiah Trotter in 2002, DE Hugh Douglas in 2003 and CB Troy Vincent in 2004 – and still advanced to the NFC title game each season. No. 2 draft pick Reggie Brown is a superb insurance policy at wide receiver. He caught 141 passes at Georgia and has 4.38-second speed in the 40.

Final '04 rank: 2

2. Pittsburgh
The NFL's best defense returns intact with an upgrade at nose tackle. Pro Bowler Casey Hampton is back after missing the final 10 games of 2004 with a knee injury.

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AP Ben Roethlisberger

G Kendall Simmons also is back after missing the season with a knee injury. So the two lines should be improved. NFL Rookie of the Year QB Ben Roethlisberger also will be a year older and a year better. He looks to have a greater impact with his arm. Pittsburgh protected him a year ago, and the Steelers ranked only 28th in passing. If they turn him loose, he could become a 4,000-yard passer.

Final '04 rank: 3

3. New England
The Patriots have built the first dynasty of the salary-cap era but will have to overcome some titanic losses to win a fourth Super Bowl this decade. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis left to become head coach at Notre Dame, defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel left to become head coach of the Cleveland Browns and LB Tedy Bruschi, the traffic cop of a top-10 defense, suffered a stroke that figures to sideline him in 2005. But coach Bill Belichick and QB Tom Brady still form a daunting combination.

Final '04 rank: 1

4. Indianapolis
Peyton Manning did everything last season except win a Super Bowl. He captured NFL MVP honors, won a passing title and broke league records that were decades old. But if he is ever to win a championship, the Colts must start playing some defense. They ranked 29th in the NFL in 2004 – the worst finish in Tony Dungy's nine-year head coaching career. Any improvement must come from within. The Colts didn't sign any veteran free agents but did draft defenders with five of their first six picks.

Final '04 rank: 4

5. Carolina
The Panthers don't need better players to become Super Bowl contenders, just healthier ones. With a healthy roster, Carolina was the best team in the NFC in 2003. But its two best offensive weapons (WR Steve Smith and RB Stephen Davis) and best defender (DT Kris Jenkins) combined to miss 41 games in 2004. Only four of the 22 primary starters managed to play entire 16-game seasons. A healthy roster – plus the additions of G Mike Wahle, CB Ken Lucas and FS Idrees Bashir – makes the Panthers contenders again.

Final '04 rank: 11

6. San Diego
The Chargers were one of the youngest teams in the NFL in 2004, and one of the most successful with 12 victories and an AFC West title. All 22 starters are back, a rarity in a salary-cap world, and the Chargers used the draft to patch some holes. First-round LB Shawne Merriman bolsters a weak pass rush, and second-round WR Vincent Jackson brings speed to the passing game. RB LaDainian Tomlinson may be the most complete player in the NFL.

Final '04 rank: 6

7. Jacksonville
An inability to beat Houston cost the Jaguars a playoff spot in 2004. They went 0-2 against the Texans and 9-5 against everyone else, including victories at Indianapolis and Green Bay. QB Byron Leftwich is an emerging star on offense, and the defensive tackle combo of Marcus Stroud and John Henderson is the best in the business. The Jaguars also have built an offensive line with high draft picks. Jacksonville could be the breakthrough team of 2005.

Final '04 rank: 12

8. Minnesota
Can the subtraction from the roster of the most talented player in the game (Randy Moss) make the Vikings a better team?

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AP Daunte Culpepper

If Mike Tice is successful with his defensive overhaul – five new veteran starters have arrived – the answer is yes. The Vikings ranked 28th in defense a year ago and allowed almost as many points (395) as their high-flying offense could score (405). QB Daunte Culpepper will generate points and yards with or without Moss.

Final '04 rank: 15

9. Buffalo
The Bills have the NFL's best special teams, the second-best defense and elite offensive playmakers in Willis McGahee, Lee Evans and Eric Moulds. Buffalo will try to duplicate the feat of the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2004 – win a division title with an inexperienced quarterback. The cast is strong enough to carry QB J.P. Losman if he can avoid making mistakes that cost his team games. Ben Roethlisberger did it last season, and the Steelers went 15-1.

Final '04 rank: 8

10. Atlanta
The Falcons found Mike Vick a lead receiver in the off-season, drafting Roddy White in the first round. But will Vick throw him the football? Vick is still more comfortable running the ball than throwing it. He needs to figure out what Steve Young figured out in the early 1990s – he can win more games with his left arm than with his legs. Four starters are gone from a defense that played surprisingly well in Jim Mora's first season as head coach.

Final '04 rank: 5

11. Cincinnati
Coach Marvin Lewis gambled last year when he put inexperienced QB Carson Palmer in the lineup of a playoff contender. Palmer struggled early but was an NFL-caliber passer by the end of the season. The Bengals will benefit in 2005. No. 1 draft pick David Pollack brings energy and a pass rush to a defense that could use a little of both.

Final '04 rank: 16

12. Baltimore
The Ravens have the same formula in 2005 that captured a Super Bowl in 2000 – the power running of Jamal Lewis and suffocating defense. But Trent Dilfer made an occasional play for the 2000 Ravens at quarterback. Baltimore is still waiting for a contribution from QB Kyle Boller. Free-agent WR Derrick Mason could accelerate Boller's development.

Final '04 rank: 13

13. New York Jets
Curtis Martin carried the Jets into the postseason in 2004, running for 1,697 yards and becoming the oldest player (31) to win an NFL rushing title. He's going to need some help in 2005, and a healthy Chad Pennington could provide it. The Jets plan to open up the attack with new offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger.

Final '04 rank: 7

14. Oakland
Has there been a team that has more dramatically changed its profile this off-season than the Raiders? Adding WR Randy Moss gives the Raiders the chance for big plays on offense, and adding RB Lamont Jordan gives them a chance for little plays. Coach Norv Turner is hoping younger means better on defense. An aging cast ranked 30th last season.

Final '04 rank: 28

15. Green Bay
Brett Favre flirted with retirement in the off-season. That would have been a disaster. The Packers have since protected themselves by drafting Cal's Aaron Rodgers in the first round. Like Oakland, the offense is fine – but the defense needs work. The Pack finished 25th last year and will be without cap-casualty SS Darren Sharper in 2005.

Final '04 rank: 9

16. Kansas City
The Chiefs had the only offense that gained more yards than the Colts last season.

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AP Tony Gonzalez

But here's another team with defensive woes. The Chiefs finished 31st in 2004 and gave up a whopping 435 points. Veterans CB Patrick Surtain, FS Sammy Knight, LB Kendrell Bell and DE Carlos Hall were summoned to provide the defense a backbone.

Final '04 rank: 17

17. New York Giants
Eli Manning struggled as a rookie starter in 2004, losing six of his seven starts. But his development was slowed by starting receivers (Amani Toomer and Ike Hilliard) who failed to catch a TD pass. Big, physical free-agent WR Plaxico Burress addresses that deficiency. Eli's brother Peyton went from 3-13 to 13-3 in his second season.

Final '04 rank: 27

18. New Orleans
The Saints lead the league in under-achievement. They are under .500 at home in Jim Haslett's five seasons (21-27) as head coach. If you can't win at home, you can't compete for playoff spots. Free-agent ballhawk Dwight Smith was recruited to help prop up the NFL's 32nd-ranked defense. But QB Aaron Brooks remains an enigma.

Final '04 rank: 19

19. Denver
The signing of WR Jerry Rice, drafting of RB Maurice Clarett and trade acquisition of P Todd Sauerbrun all smack of desperation on the part of coach Mike Shanahan, who has not won a playoff game since John Elway retired after the 1999 Super Bowl. Jake Plummer must cut his interceptions in half (from 20) for the Broncos to be serious contenders.

Final '04 rank: 10

20. DALLAS
The Cowboys won a Super Bowl in 1992 with one of the youngest teams in the NFL.

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Michael Mulvey / DMN Drew Bledsoe

They are attempting to win in 2005 with one of the league's oldest lineups. Drew Bledsoe, Marco Rivera, Keyshawn Johnson, Terry Glenn, Larry Allen and La'Roi Glover are all key contributors in their 30s. A new 3-4 defensive scheme could slow the rebuilding process.

Final '04 rank: 23

21. Houston
Expansion teams Carolina and Jacksonville went to the playoffs in their second seasons and Cleveland went in its fourth. Entering their fourth season, the Texans feel a sense of urgency. They hope to fix the 24nd-ranked pass defense with the acquisition of CB Philip Buchanon.

Final '04 rank: 18

22. Arizona
If you want a sleeper team, it's the Cardinals. The sad-sack NFC West is inviting Arizona to assert itself. The Cardinals' three-wide receiver set of Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald and Bryant Johnson will remind new quarterback Kurt Warner of his MVP days in St. Louis.

Final '04 rank: 26

23. Detroit
If the Cardinals don't have the best three-receiver set in the NFL, the Lions might in Roy Williams, Charles Rogers and Mike Williams. Detroit also has a 1,100-yard rusher in Kevin Jones. If QB Joey Harrington can't succeed with all this talent around him, Jeff Garcia will get the chance.

Final '04 rank: 21

24. Seattle
With a new president (Tim Ruskell) in the building, Mike Holmgren may be running out of time in Seattle. He has won two division titles but no playoff games in his six seasons as coach. The Seahawks signed LB Jamie Sharper and CBs Andre Dyson and Kelly Herndon to bolster the defense.

Final '04 rank: 14

25. St. Louis
It appears Mike Martz has finally figured out he needs defense and special teams as much as he does offense to compete for Super Bowls. But it may be too late. One of the best offenses ever assembled has gotten old with Pro Bowl playmakers Marshall Faulk and Isaac Bruce now in their 30s.

Final '04 rank: 20

26. Tampa Bay
The hiring of Jon Gruden in 2002 was supposed to mean instant offense in the makeover of the Bucs. It hasn't happened. Gruden isn't fond of his two quarterbacks, Brian Griese and Chris Simms, and the Bucs still rely on defense to win games. RB Carnell Williams should help in 2005.

Final '04 rank: 26

27. Washington
Another season like the last one and Canton may evict Joe Gibbs from the Hall of Fame.

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AP Joe Gibbs

Like Gruden, Gibbs carries the tag offensive guru. But the Commanders finished 30th in the NFL in offense and won just six games. Gibbs misses Mark Rypien. Maybe rookie QB Jason Campbell can bail Gibbs out.

Final '04 rank: 24

28. Chicago
The worst offense in the NFL has been overhauled with the arrival of RB Cedric Benson in the draft and WR Muhsin Muhammad in free agency and the return of QB Rex Grossman from injury. But the NFL's 21st-ranked defense returns virtually intact. That's certainly not a plus.

Final '04 rank: 30

29. Tennessee
The salary cap continues to pummel the Titans. They had to release five starters last February, including veteran Pro Bowlers WR Derrick Mason and CB Samari Rolle. Steve McNair is the lone reminder that this was once a Super Bowl team.

Final '04 rank: 29

30. Miami
Nick Saban wants to make the Dolphins bigger in his first season and has succeeded with the additions of OT Stockar McDougle, DT Kevin Carter, DE Vonnie Holliday and SS Tebucky Jones. But how much better are the Dolphins?

Final '04 rank: 25

31. Cleveland
The Browns have been one of the great rushing franchises in NFL history. With Lee Suggs, Reuben Droughns and William Green, the Browns should be able to run the ball again in 2005. But that may be their only strength.

Final '04 rank: 31

32.San Francisco
Eli Manning went 1-6 as a rookie starter with the New York Giants in 2004. He was more ready to play in the NFL than Alex Smith and had a better supporting cast in New York than Smith has in San Francisco.

Final '04 rank: 32

E-mail rgosselin@***BANNED-URL***
http://www.cowboysplus.com/topstorync/stories/0605cpfreeranks.2e08570c7.html

Hey, its the off-season.

Its always interesting to me to see how the media looks at things during the off-season. Especially comparing the results of the previous year.

Seems to me that a few of the bottom half teams faired pretty well last season.
 

sago1

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I can understand his 05 rankings since we were coming off a bad 04 season; his job is to rank teams passed on history/talent and not on the hopes of individual fans. But our play in 05 and our acquisition of FAs & draft picks (recognizing that other NFL East teams also improved) in 06 should have given us a higher ranking then 14th. Sure there are question marks on our team (I've got major concerns about our OL & FS positions & backup questions at QB, WR & NT until I see them play in TC). I wouldn't rank us in the top 5 by any means but certainly think we should be in the top 10. I certainly don't believe all those 13 teams he ranked ahead of us will do better then we will. We made big strides talent-wise from 94 to our 95 play and I think we've got the talent to make similar strides this year; believe we can definitely go at least 11-5 and make the playoffs. With our young team & addition of several solid/good older players (believe the latter we will continue to churn) we are posed to become an elite team--a far cry from the 97-02 years before Parcells came on board.
 

ZeroClub

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Thanks for posting this. Interesting to see this stuff in retrospect.
 

jterrell

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Just goes to show whatever accuracy Goose has in picking draftees he stinks at predicting teams finishes.

Seattle, Chicago, Tampa and Washington were all in the cellar area.

He was about as wrong as could be with the exception of having a good feel for Pittsburgh.

Another thing it shows is the media and fans get too caught up in last year syndrome.
Evaluate teams with a clean slate based on current talent not based on last season's injuries or whatever else.
 

dmq

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Rick Gosselin is better at picking the draft then predicting season rankings. That is only because he knows people. Not because he has great prediction skills.
 

Fla Cowpoke

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He had the Skins at 27th and the Dolphins at 30th.

Great job of predicting.
 

ouvan59

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BlueWave said:
He put us at 20, I guess we ended up around 13th.

Here are the power rankings from the end of the season:

(#)=Gosselin's prediction
bold=missed by 10 or more spots
underline=missed by 20 or more spots

1. Colts (4)
2. Seahawks (24)
3. Broncos (19)
4. Patriots (3)
5. Bears (28)
6. Steelers (2)
7. Bucs (26)
8. Bengals (11)
9. Panthers (5)
10. Giants (17)
11. Jaguars (7)
12. Commanders (27)
13. Chiefs (16)
14. Dolphins (30)
15. Chargers (6)
16. Cowboys (20)
17. Vikings (8)
18. Falcons (10)
19. Browns (31)
20. Ravens (12)
21. Eagles (1)
22. Rams (25)
23. Bills (9)
24. Cardinals (22)
25. Titans (29)
26. Lions (23)
27. Jets (13)
28. Raiders (14)
29. Packers (15)

30. 49ers (32)
31. Saints (18)
32. Texans (21)
 

InmanRoshi

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I remember at the time that he was completely off his rocker about Buffalo. There are a couple of factors in this: a) A complete lack of regard for Drew Bledsoe and the impact of his loss b) Goose's undying love for Tom Donahoe c) Teams that go on a late season run tend to be the trendy pick the following offseason (see Dolphins). But mostly its Goose's undying love for Tom Donahoe.

When everyone says something over and over again in an offseason, I tend to believe the opposite is going to happen. That's why I wouldn't be surprised if the NFC East turned out to be not as tough as people predict. I expect two of the teams in the NFC East will fall on their face. I just don't know which two. One of them could very well be us. My hunch is that one of them will be Washington, as I anticipate a significant injury for either Brunnell, Portis or both. Philly could well be the other.
 

Chocolate Lab

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Goose will never rate us highly, because he simply doesn't like us.

Fans claim all the time that the media are biased against their team when some writer doesn't write the most glowing of reports, and 99% of the time it's simply that the writer isn't as high on the team as fans are. But Gosselin truly enjoys writing negative things about the Cowboys and pointing out the team's flaws whenever possible.

I'm not sure why that is -- my guess is that it's a backlash against what he believes are redneck Cowboys fans who don't like him, or that he's emphasizing the fact that he's a *nose in the air* NFL writer, not a local-team beat writer/columnist, or maybe that he experienced some perceived slight from the team back when he was a Cowboys columnist. But if you've ever heard him on the radio, you can hear the sneering derision in his voice when he talks about the Cowboys. It's very obvious.

As jterrel and others have said, Goose doesn't really know any better than anyone else about what will happen. He's made his name around draft time because he has great contacts in NFL front offices, but beyond that, he's nothing special. Just look at his inexplicable love for the Lions the last several years. Actually, it is pretty explainable -- the Lions are his hometown team. But how lame is that for a supposed NFL expert?

And FWIW, I agree with IR 100% about going against predictions when everyone is on a certain bandwagon. It's almost just like the stock market, where when everyone expects one thing, the opposite usually happens. I, too, have a feeling the NFC East might not be as strong as everyone expects. (IMO the NFC South will be better.) All the teams in the East have things that can bring them down, and I think it will happen to at least one or two of them. I also expect the Skins to see some significant injuries, which they were extemely lucky with last year -- just like we were in 2003.
 

fortdick

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Gotta love it. Texans rated higher than Seahawks! Guess you don't have to know what you are talking about to be a sports writer.
 

theebs

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SkinsandTerps said:
Hey, its the off-season.

Its always interesting to me to see how the media looks at things during the off-season. Especially comparing the results of the previous year.

Seems to me that a few of the bottom half teams faired pretty well last season.


This is my beef with gosselin. His draft and free agency work is second to none, especially his draft coverage he is simply the best. His forecasts and team breakdowns and rankings are some of the worst!!!

For some reason for the past 4 years he has been obsessed with the idea that baltimore and buffalo are good franchises and are about to win and win big. Two years ago he told norm hitzges here in Dallas that he thought buffalo would push new england and that baltimore had the team to win the afc. He always seems to be off on his rankings.

Not sure why but he is always off, also he has some beef with parcells and never ever gives him credit for anything and does nothing but emphasize the negative when speaking about the cowboys on local sports radio. It is kind of a tired act and he fits right in with the espn local shows here.

I will never understand his obsession with baltimore being a great team.
 

Chief

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Chocolate Lab said:
I agree with IR 100% about going against predictions when everyone is on a certain bandwagon. It's almost just like the stock market, where when everyone expects one thing, the opposite usually happens.

This probably isn't good for Dallas.

They seem to be a trendy pick lately.

Interesting thoughts on Gosselin.
 

Aurican

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When everyone says something over and over again in an offseason, I tend to believe the opposite is going to happen. That's why I wouldn't be surprised if the NFC East turned out to be not as tough as people predict. I expect two of the teams in the NFC East will fall on their face. I just don't know which two. One of them could very well be us. My hunch is that one of them will be Washington, as I anticipate a significant injury for either Brunnell, Portis or both. Philly could well be the other.


I was thinking the same thing, it's likely two teams in the division will flop I just hope it's not us. My best guess would also be Washington mainly because of Brunnell and their lack of depth. I also think the Giants are likely to take a dive both because of their schedule and because of Tiki's age, if he doesn't perform or goes down I doubt they can recover.
 

SA_Gunslinger

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...and really....who could have predicted just how BAD the T.O. saga would become, and how far reaching its effects would be.



if you had told me this time last year that the ea-girls were about to go 6-10, and that in summer 2006, T.O. would be a cowboy, i would have called in the mental ward.
 

followthestar

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Good coaches produce good teams. Take a stab at rating the coaches, and their teams will fall close to that. The NFC East is the toughest division perhaps, because we have the best coaches - Reid, Gibbs, Coughlin, and the best of them in Bill Parcells.
Since I'm basically a homer, I would rank the Cowboys as probably 6th, meaning we might perhaps see a conference championship game, at best. but the little voice keeps saying "stranger things have happened." :)
 

MONT17

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until these guys predict injuries... why bother? besides the entertaiment... but to rag on them is to say u buy into what they predict!!! only a FOOL would take their predictions more than face value!!!


Next you will want a writer to PREDICT INJURIES so I can laugh at his off base predictions the next year!!!
 
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