Guys Likely to be Off the Board at 16

[CowboysLaw87]

OK, let's play the numbers game to see what we're likely to be choosing from at #16. You know how media outlets will say that college basketball teams are "locks" or "on the bubble" to make the NCAA Tourney? That's the format I will use to determine who is likely to be off the board.

Lock = 80%+ chance to be gone
Bubble = 35%-79% chance to be gone

QB (2 locks):
1) Manziel- lock
2) Bortles- lock
3) Carr- bubble
4) Bridgewater- bubble

WR/TE: (2 locks):
1) Watkins- lock
2) Evans- lock
3) Ebron- bubble
4) Beckham- bubble

OL (3 locks):
1) Robinson- lock
2) Matthews- lock
3) Lewan- lock
4) Martin- bubble

DL/LB (3 locks):
1) Clowney- lock
2) Mack- lock
3) Donald- lock
4) Barr- bubble
5) Mosley- bubble
6) Hageman- bubble
7) Nix- bubble
8) Ealy- bubble

DB (1 lock):
1) Clinton-Dix- lock
2) Gilbert- bubble
3) Dennard- bubble
4) Fuller- bubble
5) Pryor- bubble

So there's 11 locks and 14 bubbles, IMO. So only 4 bubbles must come off the board before we pick. Ranked in order of probability, I'd go:

1) Barr
2) Ebron
3) Beckham
4) Martin
5) Gilbert
6) Mosley

IMO we'll be picking from the Ealy/Mosley/Pryor group. Would be absolutely perfect if I thought the team liked CJ Mosley as much as I do, but it doesn't seem to be that way. I suppose my "analysis" concludes that we're potentially in no-man's land at #16, and all signs point to a trade down being the absolute best case scenario. If we can't deal down we'll likely be stuck reaching at our pick.

 

[DBOY3141]

I think the only locks are:
Clowney
Mack
Watkins
Robinson
Matthews

who knows about the rest. every year we see a "lock" ie DeCastro, Bryant etc. only to see them slide. I think the Cowboys 1st COA is wanting to trade down and add a 2 or 3, since this is a deep draft in those areas.

 

[DFWJC]

Thanks for the work

I see you fudged the locks to make them 80%...so maybe "probable locks" .
I'm sure you can add one of the CBs to that 80% list.

I think picks 16 and 17 will be in play for trades, and one of the reasons is that all six of those top bubble guys are high demand players.
So if need be, trading down should not be too much of an issue.

Of those six, I'd probably go
Barr
Martin
trade down
other

But really, Gilbert , Mosley, Beckahm, and Ebron are all going to be good..some maybe great.

One...more..week

 

[xwalker]

OK, let's play the numbers game to see what we're likely to be choosing from at #16. You know how media outlets will say that college basketball teams are "locks" or "on the bubble" to make the NCAA Tourney? That's the format I will use to determine who is likely to be off the board.

Lock = 80%+ chance to be gone
Bubble = 35%-79% chance to be gone

QB (2 locks):
1) Manziel- lock
2) Bortles- lock
3) Carr- bubble
4) Bridgewater- bubble

WR/TE: (2 locks):
1) Watkins- lock
2) Evans- lock
3) Ebron- bubble
4) Beckham- bubble

OL (3 locks):
1) Robinson- lock
2) Matthews- lock
3) Lewan- lock
4) Martin- bubble

DL/LB (3 locks):
1) Clowney- lock
2) Mack- lock
3) Donald- lock
4) Barr- bubble
5) Mosley- bubble
6) Hageman- bubble
7) Nix- bubble
8) Ealy- bubble

DB (1 lock):
1) Clinton-Dix- lock
2) Gilbert- bubble
3) Dennard- bubble
4) Fuller- bubble
5) Pryor- bubble

So there's 11 locks and 14 bubbles, IMO. So only 4 bubbles must come off the board before we pick. Ranked in order of probability, I'd go:

1) Barr
2) Ebron
3) Beckham
4) Martin
5) Gilbert
6) Mosley

IMO we'll be picking from the Ealy/Mosley/Pryor group. Would be absolutely perfect if I thought the team liked CJ Mosley as much as I do, but it doesn't seem to be that way. I suppose my "analysis" concludes that we're potentially in no-man's land at #16, and all signs point to a trade down being the absolute best case scenario. If we can't deal down we'll likely be stuck reaching at our pick.

Donald and Dix are not locks. They are in the same category as Ebron, Gilbert and Barr.

 

[CowboysLaw87]

Donald and Dix are not locks. They are in the same category as Ebron, Gilbert and Barr.

I simply believe each has an 80% chance of being off the board, and that's how I defined "lock."

Thanks for the work

I see you fudged the locks to make them 80%...so maybe "probable locks" .
I'm sure you can add one of the CBs to that 80% list.

Yeah, thing is I think there's about an 80% chance that one of the CB's (Gilbert, Fuller, Dennard) is off the board, but I wouldn't say that any one individual CB has that great of a chance, so they're all bubble players in my analysis.

This is all of course very non-scientific, and is only meant as a fun exercise as we try to fill the next week.

 

[DFWJC]

Donald and Dix are not locks. They are in the same category as Ebron, Gilbert and Barr.

Agree.

Dix(or Pryor) would even be after Gilbert (or other CB), imo, as far as probabilities. He did hedge his "locks" to only 80% vs 95-100. I do kind of think Donald is close to 80%, but who really knows.

 

[xwalker]

I simply believe each has an 80% chance of being off the board, and that's how I defined "lock."

I would put Barr, Gilbert, Ebron, Donald and Dix in an intermediate category just below the "locks" but above the other guys.

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

I would put Barr, Gilbert, Ebron, Donald and Dix in an intermediate category just below the "locks" but above the other guys.

Yes but you are not him and it is his scenario and first post.

 

[egn22]

OK, let's play the numbers game to see what we're likely to be choosing from at #16. You know how media outlets will say that college basketball teams are "locks" or "on the bubble" to make the NCAA Tourney? That's the format I will use to determine who is likely to be off the board.

Lock = 80%+ chance to be gone
Bubble = 35%-79% chance to be gone

QB (2 locks):
1) Manziel- lock
2) Bortles- lock
3) Carr- bubble
4) Bridgewater- bubble

WR/TE: (2 locks):
1) Watkins- lock
2) Evans- lock
3) Ebron- bubble
4) Beckham- bubble

OL (3 locks):
1) Robinson- lock
2) Matthews- lock
3) Lewan- lock
4) Martin- bubble

DL/LB (3 locks):
1) Clowney- lock
2) Mack- lock
3) Donald- lock
4) Barr- bubble
5) Mosley- bubble
6) Hageman- bubble
7) Nix- bubble
8) Ealy- bubble

DB (1 lock):
1) Clinton-Dix- lock
2) Gilbert- bubble
3) Dennard- bubble
4) Fuller- bubble
5) Pryor- bubble

So there's 11 locks and 14 bubbles, IMO. So only 4 bubbles must come off the board before we pick. Ranked in order of probability, I'd go:

1) Barr
2) Ebron
3) Beckham
4) Martin
5) Gilbert
6) Mosley

IMO we'll be picking from the Ealy/Mosley/Pryor group. Would be absolutely perfect if I thought the team liked CJ Mosley as much as I do, but it doesn't seem to be that way. I suppose my "analysis" concludes that we're potentially in no-man's land at #16, and all signs point to a trade down being the absolute best case scenario. If we can't deal down we'll likely be stuck reaching at our pick.

I did the same exact exercise a few days ago and came to the same conclusion.

 

[CowboysLaw87]

I would put Barr, Gilbert, Ebron, Donald and Dix in an intermediate category just below the "locks" but above the other guys.

I'll give you that. The group of guys you listed are either on the lower end of "locks" or upper end of "bubble" in my scenario. I was trying to keep it fairly simple though.

Point is there's a very real possibility that we're wiped out of the options we talk about around here (Donald, Barr, Martin). This pick is likely going to set off a bunch of posters, including myself (Ealy, Pryor), or be dealt. It's almost difficult for me to envision a likelihood of us sitting at #16 and taking a guy I'm 100% OK with.

 

[BrAinPaiNt]

I'll give you that. The group of guys you listed are either on the lower end of "locks" or upper end of "bubble" in my scenario. I was trying to keep it fairly simple though.

Point is there's a very real possibility that we're wiped out of the options we talk about around here (Donald, Barr, Martin). This pick is likely going to set off a bunch of posters, including myself (Ealy, Pryor), or be dealt. It's almost difficult for me to envision a likelihood of us sitting at #16 and taking a guy I'm 100% OK with.

I think it would be a bit of a let down. But if you can't trade back and you have to pick...Pryor is a quality player even if we might want to see the Cowboys go in another direction. I would say that one could make an argument that Jimmie Ward is a better Coverage S but that is probably for another thread. I know they see Jernigan as a 1 and do not value them in the upper first rounds but I would not have a problem at all if they took him because Jernigan and a healthy Melton would be a formidable duo in the middle IMO. I don't want another LB with injury problems to help with our current LB with injury problems, especially not in the first round at 16 so I am not as high on CJ as some are. Ealy to me at 16 would be the biggest disappointment.

 

[xwalker]

I'll give you that. The group of guys you listed are either on the lower end of "locks" or upper end of "bubble" in my scenario. I was trying to keep it fairly simple though.

Point is there's a very real possibility that we're wiped out of the options we talk about around here (Donald, Barr, Martin). This pick is likely going to set off a bunch of posters, including myself (Ealy, Pryor), or be dealt. It's almost difficult for me to envision a likelihood of us sitting at #16 and taking a guy I'm 100% OK with.

Whatever category, I'm saying that those guys should all be in the same category. They can all be locks, they can all be bubble or they can all be in a separate category.