How Free Agency Has Molded Our Draft Plan

[Gryphon]

How Free Agency Has Molded Our Draft Plan
March 1st, 2008 by Joe Rodriguez
http://thedallascowboys.net/blog/2008/03/01/how-free-agency-has-molded-our-draft-plan/

This may be one of the fastest moving free agency periods I’ve seen in several years. We’re seeing big paydays, and we’re seeing virtually all the top free agents being taken off the market. The Cowboys did most their spending on our own free agents, we know this; however, we still having some glaring needs, and with the market dried up we can almost pencil in what we’re going to draft.

Let’s start with the secondary. Its safe to say the secondary is the weakest link on the defensive side of the ball, and the Cowboys were not in the market for any of the big names out there. Moreover, free agent Jacques Reeves is gone, and not that we were going to sign him, but he was our nickelback and our emergency #2CB backup. Right now, nickelback is a huge question mark. Henry is injury prone, so assuming he gets his annual injury during the season, who starts? Allen Ball, Courtney Brown - get real.

#22 will goto a defensive back. This player will see immediate action at nickelback and will probably be the heir apparent once Henry is relegated to a nickel back or backup corner.

On the other side of the ball, we have a huge question mark at wide receiver. Besides Terrell Owens, our wide receivers corps are very mediocre. We all know what Crayton is, he’s a #3 WR at best. Terry Glenn has some major decisions to make, and even if he does return, he would be one akward fall or hard hit from ending his career. There’s no way the Cowboys roll into the 2008 season with these questions at wide receiver.

Free agency has also taken off several good receivers off the market, and unless you want to replace Glenn with another oft injured receiver in Javon Walker, we’re looking at drafting a receiver with that other first rounder. Forget Randy Moss too, I would be shocked if he were to sign here, we would need to do some creative arthur-anderson accounting to get him on board, and we won’t be doing that. So, look for us to draft a wide receiver early #28 should be the best receiver on the board.

What about RB? I almost convinced the Cowboys will not draft a RB in the first round, especially with Barber’s longterm deal still in the works. If you’re going to pay first round money, it needs to be to your franchise type players at keys positions. This year its cornerback and wide receiver, two positions that need to get younger and need to be the future at their respective positions. The future at RB starts and ends with Marion Barber, we can draft another RB in another round. We’re not going to do the whole 1st half/2nd half thing again like we did last year with Jones and Barber. Barber will start, and some other running back will come in to supply some rest time, this means drafting a running back in a later round in my opinion.

The only scenario I see us drafting a running back in the first round would be if the Cowboys believe that none of the receivers in this draft can help us significantly on offense. And if the Cowboys feel comfortable enough with our current receivers, the Cowboys could draft an explosive running back in the first round in order to compensate for the potential lack of production with the receivers in 2008, and that’s playing with fire in my opinion. I know that’s not inline with Garrett’s offensive philosophy as it would limit what you could do on offense. Let’s get a receiver to avoid this scenario.

 

[mboy22]

man, this is the most common sense post I have seen in a while on this board, well said.

 

[TheCount]

I've never been sure why people thought we needed to get a RB in the 1st round, I wouldn't be surprised to see us not even take one till the 3rd or later. How many teams have two highly paid RB's on the roster?

 

[Beast_from_East]

How Free Agency Has Molded Our Draft Plan
March 1st, 2008 by Joe Rodriguez
http://thedallascowboys.net/blog/2008/03/01/how-free-agency-has-molded-our-draft-plan/

This may be one of the fastest moving free agency periods I’ve seen in several years. We’re seeing big paydays, and we’re seeing virtually all the top free agents being taken off the market. The Cowboys did most their spending on our own free agents, we know this; however, we still having some glaring needs, and with the market dried up we can almost pencil in what we’re going to draft.

Let’s start with the secondary. Its safe to say the secondary is the weakest link on the defensive side of the ball, and the Cowboys were not in the market for any of the big names out there. Moreover, free agent Jacques Reeves is gone, and not that we were going to sign him, but he was our nickelback and our emergency #2CB backup. Right now, nickelback is a huge question mark. Henry is injury prone, so assuming he gets his annual injury during the season, who starts? Allen Ball, Courtney Brown - get real.

#22 will goto a defensive back. This player will see immediate action at nickelback and will probably be the heir apparent once Henry is relegated to a nickel back or backup corner.

On the other side of the ball, we have a huge question mark at wide receiver. Besides Terrell Owens, our wide receivers corps are very mediocre. We all know what Crayton is, he’s a #3 WR at best. Terry Glenn has some major decisions to make, and even if he does return, he would be one akward fall or hard hit from ending his career. There’s no way the Cowboys roll into the 2008 season with these questions at wide receiver.

Free agency has also taken off several good receivers off the market, and unless you want to replace Glenn with another oft injured receiver in Javon Walker, we’re looking at drafting a receiver with that other first rounder. Forget Randy Moss too, I would be shocked if he were to sign here, we would need to do some creative arthur-anderson accounting to get him on board, and we won’t be doing that. So, look for us to draft a wide receiver early #28 should be the best receiver on the board.

What about RB? I almost convinced the Cowboys will not draft a RB in the first round, especially with Barber’s longterm deal still in the works. If you’re going to pay first round money, it needs to be to your franchise type players at keys positions. This year its cornerback and wide receiver, two positions that need to get younger and need to be the future at their respective positions. The future at RB starts and ends with Marion Barber, we can draft another RB in another round. We’re not going to do the whole 1st half/2nd half thing again like we did last year with Jones and Barber. Barber will start, and some other running back will come in to supply some rest time, this means drafting a running back in a later round in my opinion.

The only scenario I see us drafting a running back in the first round would be if the Cowboys believe that none of the receivers in this draft can help us significantly on offense. And if the Cowboys feel comfortable enough with our current receivers, the Cowboys could draft an explosive running back in the first round in order to compensate for the potential lack of production with the receivers in 2008, and that’s playing with fire in my opinion. I know that’s not inline with Garrett’s offensive philosophy as it would limit what you could do on offense. Let’s get a receiver to avoid this scenario.

Good analysis, I agree that we go CB and WR in the 1st and RB probably in the 2nd or 3rd.

 

[BourbonBalz]

I agree completely. However, it wouldn't absolutely shock me if we spent both first round picks on corners, if the right ones were still available. Still, I see corner and WR in the first and a back in the second.

 

[sbark]

Good Post........but Jerry J's MO is to take care of glareing needs prior to draft...........

We thought same thing last yr, before the Bigg Davis signing....and Hamlin Signing......

Jerry always lets the 1st wave of free agents ride past him.........

Again, Jerry past pattern is to get to point where he has options in the draft, and not be forced to move on a certain position......

gotta wait and see how the deck gets cut for him this yr

 

[Hoofbite]

I've never been sure why people thought we needed to get a RB in the 1st round, I wouldn't be surprised to see us not even take one till the 3rd or later. How many teams have two highly paid RB's on the roster?

money shouldn't be the deciding factor. Bottom-half round picks don't make that much money any way so I don't see any reason why Dallas wouldn't take a RB on day 1. Its one of the bigger needs on the team. I'd only put CB above it.

tell you one thing. If Dallas passes on the chance for Stewart, Ill be pissed.

 

[Woods]

Right now, I tend to belive that we'll co CB and WR in Round 1, and we'll take a RB between Rounds 2-4.

That said, if we end up signing a WR in FA, for example, anything could happen, though we will probably still target a CB in Round 1.

 

[TheCount]

money shouldn't be the deciding factor. Bottom-half round picks don't make that much money any way so I don't see any reason why Dallas wouldn't take a RB on day 1. Its one of the bigger needs on the team. I'd only put CB above it.

tell you one thing. If Dallas passes on the chance for Stewart, Ill be pissed.

You think RB is a greater need than WR? Really? Well I suppose that's one way to see things, I can't say I agree though.

I agree money shouldn't be the deciding factor, and it's not. We have a starter, who will probably be signed long term. There are always RB's in the draft, unless you believe Stewart is a once in a lifetime type of back.

RB's can always come in and contribute right away, WR's on the other hand take time to develop. If we keep passing on bringing in a true WR, when are we ever gonna get one or are we going to just commit ourselves to overpaying in free agency? Did you see Berrian's contract? If that's what we have to do to bring a WR in from FA, I'd rather draft a guy to groom in April.

 

[JoeCorrado]

Cowboys won't spend a first round selection on a WR. The class is pretty thin and Isaiah Stanback and Sam Hurd are still bright young prospects.

We have just one RB on the roster today. We have a real need at the position. We don't have a 3rd CB on the roster either although Ball has potential.

The strength of the draft is at RB and DB. Look for us to get the best available at both positions in the first round.

 

[burmafrd]

A first rd pick on a guy that probably would only get 10 carries a game at best. Maybe in another 5 plays otherwise or so. Yeah right.

 

[MichaelWinicki]

Right now, nickelback is a huge question mark. Henry is injury prone, so assuming he gets his annual injury during the season, who starts? Allen Ball, Courtney Brown - get real.

To dismiss Ball totally is perhaps borderline stoopid.

In 1991 I watched a 12th round cornerback, not only start but do a commendable job. He was the 320th pick of the 1991 draft.

Am I saying that Ball is another Larry Brown?

No, but to assume the kid can't contribute is goofy.

 

[sago1]

Laugh when I hear Sam Hurd described as a comer or bright young talent. Hurd is another Crayton; decent to good hands but lacks speed; now Austin could be something if he manages this year how to consistently catch the ball. And who knows what Stanbach can do when he gets on the field?

FA changes everything. With many top flight CBs staying home and the top several already gone in FA, there's a good chance we can get a top CB with our 22nd pick. OTOH, some teams already filled their first need in FA & therefore might go with their 2nd need which could be at CB or at WR.

BTW: One WR I haven't heard much about is Marcus Monk of Arkansas. Early drafts had him going in the 2nd round but his injury has caused him to disappear off the mock drafts -- and the Huddle Report shows him going in
6th round but with first round talent. Does anybody know if he was at the combine and what he did? Now he certainly should be of interest to the Cowboys. Also Huddle Report and 1-2 others now showing Felix Jones as a
2nd round pick.

 

[FLcowboy]

How Free Agency Has Molded Our Draft Plan
March 1st, 2008 by Joe Rodriguez
http://thedallascowboys.net/blog/2008/03/01/how-free-agency-has-molded-our-draft-plan/

This may be one of the fastest moving free agency periods I’ve seen in several years. We’re seeing big paydays, and we’re seeing virtually all the top free agents being taken off the market. The Cowboys did most their spending on our own free agents, we know this; however, we still having some glaring needs, and with the market dried up we can almost pencil in what we’re going to draft.

Let’s start with the secondary. Its safe to say the secondary is the weakest link on the defensive side of the ball, and the Cowboys were not in the market for any of the big names out there. Moreover, free agent Jacques Reeves is gone, and not that we were going to sign him, but he was our nickelback and our emergency #2CB backup. Right now, nickelback is a huge question mark. Henry is injury prone, so assuming he gets his annual injury during the season, who starts? Allen Ball, Courtney Brown - get real.

#22 will goto a defensive back. This player will see immediate action at nickelback and will probably be the heir apparent once Henry is relegated to a nickel back or backup corner.

On the other side of the ball, we have a huge question mark at wide receiver. Besides Terrell Owens, our wide receivers corps are very mediocre. We all know what Crayton is, he’s a #3 WR at best. Terry Glenn has some major decisions to make, and even if he does return, he would be one akward fall or hard hit from ending his career. There’s no way the Cowboys roll into the 2008 season with these questions at wide receiver.



What about RB? I almost convinced the Cowboys will not draft a RB in the first round, especially with Barber’s longterm deal still in the works. If you’re going to pay first round money, it needs to be to your franchise type players at keys positions. This year its cornerback and wide receiver, two positions that need to get younger and need to be the future at their respective positions. The future at RB starts and ends with Marion Barber, we can draft another RB in another round. We’re not going to do the whole 1st half/2nd half thing again like we did last year with Jones and Barber. Barber will start, and some other running back will come in to supply some rest time, this means drafting a running back in a later round in my opinion.

The only scenario I see us drafting a running back in the first round would be if the Cowboys believe that none of the receivers in this draft can help us significantly on offense. And if the Cowboys feel comfortable enough with our current receivers, the Cowboys could draft an explosive running back in the first round in order to compensate for the potential lack of production with the receivers in 2008, and that’s playing with fire in my opinion. I know that’s not inline with Garrett’s offensive philosophy as it would limit what you could do on offense. Let’s get a receiver to avoid this scenario.

Let's assume that Dallas re-signs Barber, and then drafts McFadden. I can certainly see the two of them platooning very effectively, and also can see both of them appearing in the backfield together. I could see the red zone offense setting up with Barber threatening to run up the middle, or McF taking the pitchout after a fake to Barber and tossing a floater to Witten, or, running the ball into the endzone.

I guarantee you I would jump and scream if I saw that play unfold.

 

[YosemiteSam]

I'll tell you. With the signing of Thomas, we aren't going to draft a MLB in the first round! :laugh2:

 

[Redball Express]

..and in the end, with even having two #1's in this draft, we are quite at the mercy of what other teams do ahead of us that will determine which directions we take.

The key to this whole draft for us was in getting Cleveland's #1 and hoping it would be at least a top 10.

That whole plan was aimed at getting McFadden. we all know that.

So now, with so little leverage from where we stand to really go out and make these 2 #1's really work for us, I think we are faced with having to really manuver some to get out of our picks where they are and make them really work for us.

To try and get back to where we wanted to be, somewhere in the top 10 picks to have a shot at McFadden.

All these other discussions are just alot of mental thought process excercise.

I still think that Dallas wants McFadden, will find a willing team to let us move up and we will do so using our 2 #1's.

I think what you need to do is figure out which draft position in the value charts equals what our 2 #1's would be and then start looking at how far that is away from positions 5-10 where we want to move to if McFadden falls that far.

Then you need to look at what will be the difference needed to swing the deal, including draft picks in next year's draft, or players to be determined, to make it happen.

I saw with interest that on a recent mock draft coming from SI that had us doing a trade with NE at their #7 spot for our two picks and us moving up to pick McFadden. No mention on if there would be other considerations involved.

This gives me sort of an idea where we might be able to move to and what it would take. But does anybody else have these charts with the values to determine what I'm saying here..?

I don't know where to get them from and I lost Jimmy Johnson's email address with my last HD crash.



I keep hearing from numerous sources that there are less than 22 players in this draft that are real 1st Rd. value. After that, the value tumbles into the 2nd. and 3rd. rds. in value but they will still be up there at our draft slots.

This is a huge concern.

All these names that people mention as being available for RB, CB and WR are basically outside to well outside the first 20 or so players considerd to be the real deal.

So I think this is really got us in a bind, as a team.

I'm very concerned that if we stay put, we are going to get stuck with alternative players being drafted at high cap dollars that are not going to help us for a couple of years and shouldn't be drafted in the 1st rd.

I hear very little discussion here about this possibility and how that is going to impact our draft decisions.

We cannot afford to blow this draft. But it's not set up well for us, considering what we gave up last year to do this and how it looks like paying off as it presently sits.

I can see Jerry Jones nodding as he reads this. He's got a plan, but I'm dying to know where he thinks he can go with it.

Hmmm..

:starspin ReDBaLL ExPreSS:starspin

 

[DallasEast]

I think what you need to do is figure out which draft position in the value charts equals what our 2 #1's would be and then start looking at how far that is away from positions 5-10 where we want to move to if McFadden falls that far.

Then you need to look at what will be the difference needed to swing the deal, including draft picks in next year's draft, or players to be determined, to make it happen.

I saw with interest that on a recent mock draft coming from SI that had us doing a trade with NE at their #7 spot for our two picks and us moving up to pick McFadden. No mention on if there would be other considerations involved.

Draft value board -> http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/news/story?id=2410670

Our #22 & #28 first-rounders are valued at 1440 (780 & 660, respectively). At #8, the Ravens would be a more likely candidate to trade picks (their #8 for our #22 & #28) straight up, but we're going to have to sweeten the pot by including a player or two (EDIT: or more draft picks) to entice the Patriots or a higher team into becoming a trading partner.

 

[big dog cowboy]

I keep hearing from numerous sources that there are less than 22 players in this draft that are real 1st Rd. value. After that, the value tumbles into the 2nd. and 3rd. rds. in value but they will still be up there at our draft slots.

I don't buy into that theory. Just because there might only be 22 legit first round value players, that doesn't automatically mean they will be the first 22 players taken.

There are 2nd round value players taken in the first round every year.

 

[Redball Express]

Draft value board -> http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/news/story?id=2410670

Our #22 & #28 first-rounders are valued at 1440 (780 & 660, respectively). At #8, the Ravens would be a more likely candidate to trade picks (their #8 for our #22 & #28) straight up, but we're going to have to sweeten the pot by including a player or two (EDIT: or more draft picks) to entice the Patriots or a higher team into becoming a trading partner.

This only confirms what I think is the plan, it just becomes a matter of which team is willing to let us move up.

I hear statements saying we don't have any cap to do this and can't afford the $20-30 mil bonus he'll get if we take him. Well, it depends on where he gets finally taken and it depends on what the deal would be.

I also think strongly that if there are any considerations going on with Dallas inquiring about other FA's on the market such as DeAngelo Hall or Randy Moss, guys that are going to be asking for large committments from us..

..then looking at a guy like McFadden is also in the plans.

When we did Romo's contract and now Flo's and others along with what is coming with Hamlin as the franchise tag and MBIII being qualified at his highest tender..

This has all been a plan to get the cap semi-solidified and at least temporarily fixed, as close to the cap as it maybe, to determine what they will need to do should a trade come up for an opportunity for McFadden.

Several players would be willing to redo their deals I'm sure if Jerry Jones came to them and said it needed to be done. It's a no-brainer.

This franchise has always succeeded with clearly dominating RBs. Don Perkins formed the mold and then Tony Dorsett and then Emmitt Smith broke those molds and re-tooled their teams for championship runs over multiple years.

I do not think that Jones ever really has bought into this running by committee and it still didn't work with Julius Jones and MBIII as it should have.

And I'm not sure he's sold that it will get us to a championship. I think if we don't have a RB that can dominate running the ball for us over weeks during the season and then into the playoffs, it's going to be difficult to win a championship. I just don't see MBIII being anymore than he's been.

A great change of pace back who if his carries are kept to 15-20 carries per game can play well. But at times we will need him to carry 20-30 times and for several weeks in a row at times and I don't think thast is going to work out well over a season.

If we up the carries much on MBIII, I think since he has no real speed, if he gets tired or banged up at all, he's going to be a sitting duck for the defense to stuff. Once that thresehold is reached, the running game is going to be ignored and Romo is in deep trouble week in and week out from that point forward..

McFadden can pull the whole running game along. And what speed..yikes.!! If for some reason he loses a step over a season, he's still scourching a 4.4 40 time probably. Not much fall off.

I think MBIII will get a very good contract, but I do not think he can be paid top RB money and the fact that he has been given a tender and we now have time to work out a deal but not over pay him..

..this leaves room for Jones to pursue McFadden, still.

We are the only real player in this chase for McFadden. Unless Oalkand takes him at #4 or New England does at #7. That's sort of what jumps out at me.

From there, the ravens might want him, but they have a lot of other needs, too.

To, it all depends on how these other teams see the players they are targeting at a #22 and #28 pick with our picks or if we have a player we would let go to make the deal go forward.

I'm still keeping my fingers crossed.

And I'm betting Jones is, too.

We'll see.

:starspin ReDBall ExPreSS:starspin

 

[InDakWeTrust]

Yes but that has no meaning where their value after they are drafted and develop is equal or greater or less than.

It all matters on the team and coaches/scouts.

Hell, Ratliff is turning into a more valuable player than the 20th pick of that draft.